We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.

We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | You know, we haven't even gotten a humanoid robot threat, right?

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

You know, we haven't even gotten a humanoid robot threat, right?

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we haven't even gotten a humanoid robot threat, right?",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "You know, we haven't even gotten a humanoid robot threat, right?",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "247_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "239_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major US/EU news incident: humanoid robot injures human at consumer-facing event",
      "source": "https://www.eweek.com/news/china-robot-grabs-student-campus-performance-apac/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-29",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AP/Reuters/major outlet reports a humanoid robot (Optimus, Figure, 1X, Apptronik, Unitree H1, etc.) injuring a member of the public in a US/EU venue, distinct from existing China demo incidents."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ASTM/ISO publishes first humanoid-specific safety standard",
      "source": "https://www.techjournal.uk/p/astm-calls-for-urgent-safety-standards",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "ASTM International or ISO publishes a humanoid-robot-specific safety standard (distinct from generic industrial robot standards) addressing tip-overs, force limits, public-area operation."
    },
    {
      
... (truncated)