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229_023predictionRoboticshumanoids

First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
37.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2029-10-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | 27 28 29 my best guess is I think

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
27 28 29 my best guess is I think

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.623

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 37.7% → blend 37.7% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-04-01 → 2027-03-31pendingSecond major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03
    How: Figure announces a second public industrial deployment (auto OEM, logistics, or warehouse) with confirmed unit count, validating multi-customer commercial traction
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFigure announces consumer/home alpha pilot program
    How: Figure formally announces home/consumer pilot program (closed alpha or beta), names participating households or enterprise-employee homes
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFigure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestone
    How: Figure publicly confirms BotQ facility hitting 12,000 units/year run-rate (or equivalent monthly cadence ~1,000 units/month)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFigure demonstrates unsupervised multi-day in-home autonomy
    How: Figure publishes verified video/research of robot completing multi-day unsupervised tasks in unfamiliar home environment (per Adcock's Jan 2026 prediction)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst paying retail customer takes delivery of Figure robot in private home
    How: Figure or independent media confirms first paid commercial delivery (not employee/insider) of Figure robot to a private residential home (defines the predicted event)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.7%+1.4pp
Network propagation: 36.3% → 37.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z36.3%+2.9pp
Network propagation: 33.4% → 36.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z33.4%+5.9pp
Network propagation: 27.5% → 33.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z27.5%+9.9pp
Network propagation: 17.7% → 27.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z17.7%-10.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.177 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z28.4%+10.7pp
Network propagation: 17.7% → 28.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z17.7%-32.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.177 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050-0.028
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.500+0.024
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050+0.015
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050+0.007
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5000.050+0.005

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_021
Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robotsPeter Diamandis
36.3%0.6000.050-0.102
prereq247_044
Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with Mark Cuban
28.0%0.4500.050-0.077
prereq229_010
Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on plBrett Adcock
25.8%0.5000.050-0.036
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050-0.019
prereq234_033
David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan David Holz
23.3%0.5000.050-0.010

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq230_021Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.Robotics
prereq229_010Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.Robotics
prereq234_033David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthsRobotics
prereq247_044Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentsRobotics

Linked documents (6)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.707manifoldHow long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]mentionspending2026-05-15
0.692manifoldHumanoid robot walking around me within a year?14%mentionspending2026-04-26
0.685manifoldHumanoid robot walking around me within three years?43%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.581manifoldHow long will it take for my cat to step into our new house?mentionspending2026-05-17
0.556manifoldHow long will it take for my cat to get used to our new house?mentionspending2026-05-17
0.556manifoldHow long will it take for my cat to get used to our new house?mentionspending2026-06-01

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "best guess",
  "context": "when are we going to see the first Figure in a customer's home is the next question... 27 28 29 my best guess is I think",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "27 28 29 my best guess is I think",
  "conv_cues": "best guess; I think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027, 2028, or 2029",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Second major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.iiot-world.com/artificial-intelligence-ml/robotics/physical-ai-deployment-roi-humanoid-robots/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure announces a second public industrial deployment (auto OEM, logistics, or warehouse) with confirmed unit count, validating multi-customer commercial traction"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure announces consumer/home alpha pilot program",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-03-review",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure formally announces home/consumer pilot program (closed alpha or beta), names participating households or enterprise-employee homes"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestone",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
   
... (truncated)