First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | 27 28 29 my best guess is I think
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
27 28 29 my best guess is I think
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-01 → 2027-03-31pendingSecond major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03How: Figure announces a second public industrial deployment (auto OEM, logistics, or warehouse) with confirmed unit count, validating multi-customer commercial tractionSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFigure announces consumer/home alpha pilot programHow: Figure formally announces home/consumer pilot program (closed alpha or beta), names participating households or enterprise-employee homesSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFigure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestoneHow: Figure publicly confirms BotQ facility hitting 12,000 units/year run-rate (or equivalent monthly cadence ~1,000 units/month)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFigure demonstrates unsupervised multi-day in-home autonomyHow: Figure publishes verified video/research of robot completing multi-day unsupervised tasks in unfamiliar home environment (per Adcock's Jan 2026 prediction)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst paying retail customer takes delivery of Figure robot in private homeHow: Figure or independent media confirms first paid commercial delivery (not employee/insider) of Figure robot to a private residential home (defines the predicted event)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.028 |
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.024 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.015 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.007 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.005 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_021 Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots — Peter Diamandis | 36.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.102 |
| prereq | 247_044 Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with — Mark Cuban | 28.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | 229_010 Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on pl — Brett Adcock | 25.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.019 |
| prereq | 234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan — David Holz | 23.3% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 | Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 | Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_021 | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_010 | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_033 | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_044 | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Robotics | — |
Linked documents (6)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.707 | manifold | How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket] | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.692 | manifold | Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? | 14% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-26 |
| 0.685 | manifold | Humanoid robot walking around me within three years? | 43% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.581 | manifold | How long will it take for my cat to step into our new house? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.556 | manifold | How long will it take for my cat to get used to our new house? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.556 | manifold | How long will it take for my cat to get used to our new house? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "best guess",
"context": "when are we going to see the first Figure in a customer's home is the next question... 27 28 29 my best guess is I think",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "27 28 29 my best guess is I think",
"conv_cues": "best guess; I think",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "2027, 2028, or 2029",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Second major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://www.iiot-world.com/artificial-intelligence-ml/robotics/physical-ai-deployment-roi-humanoid-robots/",
"expected_date": "2026-09-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-03-31",
"from": "2026-04-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Figure announces a second public industrial deployment (auto OEM, logistics, or warehouse) with confirmed unit count, validating multi-customer commercial traction"
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026",
"expected_date": "2026-11-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure announces consumer/home alpha pilot program",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-03-review",
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Figure formally announces home/consumer pilot program (closed alpha or beta), names participating households or enterprise-employee homes"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestone",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
... (truncated)