Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | we'll have Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right? You're going to have them put it out probably probably duke it out in the backyard for entertainment.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
we'll have Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right? You're going to have them put it out probably probably duke it out in the backyard for entertainment.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-15hitFigure BotQ ramp: monthly humanoid output doubles month-over-monthHow: Humanoids Daily / Tech360 confirm Figure 03 deliveries doubling MoM, ~150 units in April 2026 vs single-digit 2025 outputsSource: https://www.tech360.tv/figure-humanoid-robot-deliveries-double-monthly-signaling-production-scale-up-2026-24-04conf 90%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFigure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestoneHow: Brett Adcock public statement (X / press) confirms Figure supply chain fully Made-in-USA by summer 2026 deadlineSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturingconf 55%
- 2026-12-01 → 2027-02-28pendingFigure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slotHow: Singularity University / Abundance360 official program page lists Brett Adcock and/or Figure 03 as confirmed speaker/exhibit for March 2027 summitSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-roboticsconf 65%
- 2027-03-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFigure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027How: Abundance Summit livestream / press recap shows Brett Adcock + Figure robot on stage with Peter Diamandis; recorded video evidenceSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-03-makes-white-house-debut-at-fostering-the-future-together-summitconf 70%
- 2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFigure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personallyHow: Diamandis publicly confirms (X post / Moonshots podcast) personal Figure unit delivery; photo/video evidenceSource: https://x.com/adcock_brettconf 40%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap)How: Figure / Adcock public statement confirms BotQ producing at 12K-unit/yr run-rate (initial line design cap), per investor materials or Humanoids DailySource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-upconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.051 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.029 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.019 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.013 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_020 Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs — Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.7% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| prereq | 235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. — Elon Musk | 16.3% | 0.350 | 0.050 | +0.024 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.023 |
| prereq | 236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (E — Elon Musk | 24.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.016 |
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_020 | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_032 | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Robotics | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-12-31 | [Robotics 2027-12] [238_016] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_021] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_026] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment | pending |
Linked documents (8)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.664 | manifold | Which prediction market CEOs will I meet before 2028? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.579 | manifold | Who will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.578 | manifold | Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge? | 61% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.562 | manifold | Will the Green Party or Labour next have a leadership election, after 30th April 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.556 | manifold | Will Scott Bessent leave the position of Secretary of Treasury by the end of 2027? | 72% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.553 | manifold | Will Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026? | 15% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.534 | polymarket | Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-04 |
| 0.524 | polymarket | Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Um I I think one other CEO we had here at the abundant stage which was amazing uh was it was Dar the CEO of Uber... and we'll have uh Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right?",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "we'll have Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right? You're going to have them put it out probably probably duke it out in the backyard for entertainment.",
"conv_cues": "we'll have",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "Abundance Summit 2027",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure BotQ ramp: monthly humanoid output doubles month-over-month",
"source": "https://www.tech360.tv/figure-humanoid-robot-deliveries-double-monthly-signaling-production-scale-up-2026-24-04",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Humanoids Daily / Tech360 confirm Figure 03 deliveries doubling MoM, ~150 units in April 2026 vs single-digit 2025 outputs"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestone",
"source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturing",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2026-07-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Brett Adcock public statement (X / press) confirms Figure supply chain fully Made-in-USA by summer 2026 deadline"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slot",
"source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-robotics",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"expecte
... (truncated)