← Cockpit
238_016predictionRoboticshumanoids

Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
45.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | we'll have Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right? You're going to have them put it out probably probably duke it out in the backyard for entertainment.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
we'll have Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right? You're going to have them put it out probably probably duke it out in the backyard for entertainment.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.573

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 45.0% → blend 45.0% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-04-15hitFigure BotQ ramp: monthly humanoid output doubles month-over-month
    How: Humanoids Daily / Tech360 confirm Figure 03 deliveries doubling MoM, ~150 units in April 2026 vs single-digit 2025 outputs
    Source: https://www.tech360.tv/figure-humanoid-robot-deliveries-double-monthly-signaling-production-scale-up-2026-24-04conf 90%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFigure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestone
    How: Brett Adcock public statement (X / press) confirms Figure supply chain fully Made-in-USA by summer 2026 deadline
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturingconf 55%
  3. 2026-12-01 → 2027-02-28pendingFigure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slot
    How: Singularity University / Abundance360 official program page lists Brett Adcock and/or Figure 03 as confirmed speaker/exhibit for March 2027 summit
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-roboticsconf 65%
  4. 2027-03-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFigure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027
    How: Abundance Summit livestream / press recap shows Brett Adcock + Figure robot on stage with Peter Diamandis; recorded video evidence
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-03-makes-white-house-debut-at-fostering-the-future-together-summitconf 70%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFigure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personally
    How: Diamandis publicly confirms (X post / Moonshots podcast) personal Figure unit delivery; photo/video evidence
    Source: https://x.com/adcock_brettconf 40%
  6. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap)
    How: Figure / Adcock public statement confirms BotQ producing at 12K-unit/yr run-rate (initial line design cap), per investor materials or Humanoids Daily
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-upconf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z45.0%+1.8pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 45.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.2%+3.7pp
Network propagation: 39.5% → 43.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z39.5%+7.5pp
Network propagation: 32.0% → 39.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z32.0%+12.5pp
Network propagation: 19.5% → 32.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z19.5%-13.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.195 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z32.8%+13.3pp
Network propagation: 19.5% → 32.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z19.5%-40.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.195 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.600+0.051
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6000.050-0.034
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.600+0.029
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050+0.019
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.600+0.013

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_020
Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobsAlex Wissner-Gross
28.7%0.4500.050-0.054
prereq235_032
Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Elon Musk
16.3%0.3500.050+0.024
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050+0.023
prereq236_021
Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (EElon Musk
24.0%0.5000.050+0.016
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.006

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics
prereq235_020Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.Robotics
prereq235_032Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Robotics

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-12-31[Robotics 2027-12] [238_016] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_021] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_026] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deploymentpending

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.664manifoldWhich prediction market CEOs will I meet before 2028?mentionspending2026-05-02
0.579manifoldWho will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026?mentionspending2026-05-11
0.578manifoldWill Starmer contest a leadership challenge?61%mentionspending2026-05-14
0.562manifoldWill the Green Party or Labour next have a leadership election, after 30th April 2026?mentionspending2026-04-30
0.556manifoldWill Scott Bessent leave the position of Secretary of Treasury by the end of 2027?72%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.553manifoldWill Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026?15%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.534polymarketWill Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?0%mentionspending2026-03-04
0.524polymarketWill Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?0%mentionspending2026-03-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Um I I think one other CEO we had here at the abundant stage which was amazing uh was it was Dar the CEO of Uber... and we'll have uh Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right?",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "we'll have Brett uh here next year uh with Figure. You're gonna get one of those too, right? You're going to have them put it out probably probably duke it out in the backyard for entertainment.",
  "conv_cues": "we'll have",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "Abundance Summit 2027",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure BotQ ramp: monthly humanoid output doubles month-over-month",
      "source": "https://www.tech360.tv/figure-humanoid-robot-deliveries-double-monthly-signaling-production-scale-up-2026-24-04",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Humanoids Daily / Tech360 confirm Figure 03 deliveries doubling MoM, ~150 units in April 2026 vs single-digit 2025 outputs"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestone",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Brett Adcock public statement (X / press) confirms Figure supply chain fully Made-in-USA by summer 2026 deadline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slot",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-robotics",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expecte
... (truncated)