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229_035predictionSpacehumanoids

Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
30.0%
Current probability
20.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets. | I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the I've got my zero G airplane. We could we should we should take it upside... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them... And then we'll get other planets, too. It'll be super important.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the I've got my zero G airplane. We could we should we should take it upside... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them... And then we'll get other planets, too. It'll be super important.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Humanoids in space 'very soon' for zero-G data center assembly. SpaceX orbital DCs are real but assembly-by-humanoid is 5-10y out.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.585

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 20.4% → blend 20.4% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 30%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 20.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 pending
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure 03 indoor reliability + Hark datacenter compute milestone
    How: Figure 03 demonstrates 24/7 indoor commercial workforce operation AND Hark secures full B200 datacenter for next-gen training — terrestrial foundation for space port
    Source: https://robohorizon.com/en-us/news/2026/03/figure-ceo-brett-adcock-unveils-hark-a-secretive-ai-hardware-firm/conf 85%
    Notes: Hark + Figure datacenter compute is the prerequisite layer for any space deployment.
  2. 2026-10-25pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2027-04-21pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFigure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnership
    How: Public partnership announcement: humanoid maker (Figure, Apptronik, 1X) + NASA / SpaceX / DoD targeting microgravity or planetary deployment
    Source: NASA Tipping Point; SBIR/STTR; press releasesconf 50%
    Notes: Apptronik has prior NASA Valkyrie / Apollo lineage; reasonable they'd be first.
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assembly
    How: Space data center venture (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud, Ramon.Space) explicitly names humanoids as in-orbit assembly element of architecture
    Source: Space data center company press; SpaceNewsconf 45%
  6. 2027-10-16pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2027-01-01 → 2028-11-30pendingFirst humanoid microgravity demo (parabolic flight or ISS)
    How: Humanoid robot completes manipulation task in microgravity — parabolic flight (Adcock's 'zero G airplane') or ISS National Lab payload
    Source: NASA / Roscosmos / ISS press; Humanoids Dailyconf 40%
    Notes: Adcock specifically referenced parabolic flight test.
  8. 2028-01-01 → 2030-06-30pendingCislunar / lunar surface humanoid deployment commitment
    How: Funded program (NASA Artemis, China CNSA, commercial) commits to deploying humanoid on lunar surface or cislunar orbit before 2032
    Source: NASA Artemis program; CNSAconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 20%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z20.4%+1.8pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 20.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z18.6%+4.3pp
Network propagation: 14.3% → 18.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z14.3%-4.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.300 blend=0.143 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z18.6%+4.3pp
Network propagation: 14.3% → 18.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z14.3%-15.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.300 blend=0.143 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.300+0.066
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.300+0.041
prereqS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028
Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028
50.0%0.3000.050-0.029
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.300+0.009

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.522arxivFlat Space Physics from AdS Actionsmentionspending2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Do you think it would operate in zero G? You just need a better training set. And I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them. Like zero G is the the operating. And then we'll get other planets, too.",
  "verbatim": "I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the I've got my zero G airplane. We could we should we should take it upside... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them... And then we'll get other planets, too. It'll be super important.",
  "conv_cues": "going to; very soon",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "future (very soon for data centers in space)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 indoor reliability + Hark datacenter compute milestone",
      "notes": "Hark + Figure datacenter compute is the prerequisite layer for any space deployment.",
      "source": "https://robohorizon.com/en-us/news/2026/03/figure-ceo-brett-adcock-unveils-hark-a-secretive-ai-hardware-firm/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://robohorizon.com/en-us/news/2026/03/figure-ceo-brett-adcock-unveils-hark-a-secretive-ai-hardware-firm/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure 03 demonstrates 24/7 indoor commercial workforce operation AND Hark secures full B200 datacenter for next-gen training — terrestrial foundation for space port"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnership",
      "notes": "Apptronik has prior NASA Valkyrie / Apollo lineage; reasonable they'd be first.",
      "source": "NASA Tipping Point; SBIR/STTR; press releases",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public partnership announcement: humanoid maker (Figure, Apptronik, 1X) + NASA / SpaceX / DoD targeting microgravity or planetary deployment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assembly",
      "source": "Space data center company press; SpaceNews",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Space data center venture (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud, Ramon.Space) explicitly names humanoids as in-orbit assembly element of architecture"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-i
... (truncated)