Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets. | I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the I've got my zero G airplane. We could we should we should take it upside... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them... And then we'll get other planets, too. It'll be super important.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the I've got my zero G airplane. We could we should we should take it upside... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them... And then we'll get other planets, too. It'll be super important.
Resolution evidence
Humanoids in space 'very soon' for zero-G data center assembly. SpaceX orbital DCs are real but assembly-by-humanoid is 5-10y out.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure 03 indoor reliability + Hark datacenter compute milestoneHow: Figure 03 demonstrates 24/7 indoor commercial workforce operation AND Hark secures full B200 datacenter for next-gen training — terrestrial foundation for space portSource: https://robohorizon.com/en-us/news/2026/03/figure-ceo-brett-adcock-unveils-hark-a-secretive-ai-hardware-firm/conf 85%Notes: Hark + Figure datacenter compute is the prerequisite layer for any space deployment.
- 2026-10-25pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-04-21pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFigure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnershipHow: Public partnership announcement: humanoid maker (Figure, Apptronik, 1X) + NASA / SpaceX / DoD targeting microgravity or planetary deploymentSource: NASA Tipping Point; SBIR/STTR; press releasesconf 50%Notes: Apptronik has prior NASA Valkyrie / Apollo lineage; reasonable they'd be first.
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assemblyHow: Space data center venture (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud, Ramon.Space) explicitly names humanoids as in-orbit assembly element of architectureSource: Space data center company press; SpaceNewsconf 45%
- 2027-10-16pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-11-30pendingFirst humanoid microgravity demo (parabolic flight or ISS)How: Humanoid robot completes manipulation task in microgravity — parabolic flight (Adcock's 'zero G airplane') or ISS National Lab payloadSource: NASA / Roscosmos / ISS press; Humanoids Dailyconf 40%Notes: Adcock specifically referenced parabolic flight test.
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-06-30pendingCislunar / lunar surface humanoid deployment commitmentHow: Funded program (NASA Artemis, China CNSA, commercial) commits to deploying humanoid on lunar surface or cislunar orbit before 2032Source: NASA Artemis program; CNSAconf 30%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.300 | +0.066 |
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.300 | +0.041 |
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | 50.0% | 0.300 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.300 | +0.009 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 | Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.522 | arxiv | Flat Space Physics from AdS Actions | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PROPHECY",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "Do you think it would operate in zero G? You just need a better training set. And I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them. Like zero G is the the operating. And then we'll get other planets, too.",
"verbatim": "I think so. Yeah. I think we would really love to run in space. You're going to populate the I've got my zero G airplane. We could we should we should take it upside... Well, look, we're going to build data centers in space very soon. Someone needs to assemble them... And then we'll get other planets, too. It'll be super important.",
"conv_cues": "going to; very soon",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "future (very soon for data centers in space)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure 03 indoor reliability + Hark datacenter compute milestone",
"notes": "Hark + Figure datacenter compute is the prerequisite layer for any space deployment.",
"source": "https://robohorizon.com/en-us/news/2026/03/figure-ceo-brett-adcock-unveils-hark-a-secretive-ai-hardware-firm/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
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"confidence": 0.85,
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"expected_date": "2026-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
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},
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},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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"expected_date": "2027-04-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnership",
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"source": "NASA Tipping Point; SBIR/STTR; press releases",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
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},
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},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "First space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assembly",
"source": "Space data center company press; SpaceNews",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2027-09-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Space data center venture (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud, Ramon.Space) explicitly names humanoids as in-orbit assembly element of architecture"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-i
... (truncated)