Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days
Predictor: Emad Mostaque · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days. | Agentic platform revenue disclosures
Key catalyst: Agentic platform revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days.
Resolution evidence
Small-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs.
Predictor: Emad Mostaque
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Emad Mostaque is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.17125,
"inside_posterior": 0.82875,
"validation_notes": "Small-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.82875,
"resolution_evidence": "Small-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.127 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.109 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.107 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.090 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.084 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.204 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.172 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.143 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | +0.134 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.129 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (11)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_MID_2034 | ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years' | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Small-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs. |
Linked documents (8)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.655 | arxiv | How to Scale Mixture-of-Experts: From muP to the Maximally Scale-Stable Parameterization | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.638 | manifold | I go through the scaling book this week? | 32% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.621 | arxiv | MSMixer: Learned Multi-Scale Temporal Mixing with Complementary Linear Shortcut for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.612 | arxiv | Investigating simple target-covariate relationships for Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.585 | arxiv | Time-Dependent Dynamical Dimensional Transmutation in the $SU(2)$ Gross-Neveu Model with Time-Dependent Interaction Strength | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.575 | polymarket | Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 | 55% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.569 | polymarket | Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.533 | arxiv | The Awada-Gibbons-Shaw Algebra in de Sitter Space and SUSY Breaking | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "6 days (from 6-12 months)",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Now everything's matured. If you get it right small, you can scale really fast all the way up. So it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days.",
"conv_cues": "now it's six days",
"direction": "DOWN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Now",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "238_072",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently",
"status": "partial",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "247_023",
"expected_date": "2026-05-01",
"observed_date": "2026-05-01"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "232_055",
"expected_date": "2028-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "242_031",
"expected_date": "2030-09-27",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "230_020",
"expected_date": "2063-06-21",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 2,
"affiliation": "Schelling AI",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 238,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.520235+00:00",
"source_refs": "darioamodei.com; AI Futurists Report",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-03-11",
"key_catalyst": "Agentic platform revenue disclosures",
"parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "AI",
"episode_title": "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
"flag_repeated": true,
"in_5yr_window": true,
"appears_in_eps": "229, 238",
"consensus_size": 11,
"futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (already happening)",
"is_macro_claim": false,
"tot
... (truncated)