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238_072predictionAIAI-scaling

Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days

Predictor: Emad Mostaque · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
74.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
Edges in / out
11 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days. | Agentic platform revenue disclosures

Key catalyst: Agentic platform revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Small-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs.

Predictor: Emad Mostaque

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.722
Brier
0.0073
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 4 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Emad Mostaque is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 74.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 74%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z74.3%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 75.8% → 74.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z75.8%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 78.5% → 75.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z78.5%-4.3pp
Network propagation: 82.9% → 78.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z82.9%-4.4pp
Network propagation: 87.2% → 82.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z87.2%-4.8pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 87.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+17.1pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.829
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.17125,
  "inside_posterior": 0.82875,
  "validation_notes": "Small-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.82875,
  "resolution_evidence": "Small-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.920-0.127
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.9200.050-0.109
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.9200.050-0.107
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.090
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.920-0.084

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050+0.204
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.172
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050+0.143
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050+0.134
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050+0.129

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_ASI_MID_2034ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'asi_recursive_self_improvement
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importSmall-to-large scaling compression real; 2022-2024 was 6-12 months between Chinchilla scale tests, 2025-2026 same test cycle has compressed to days at large labs.

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "6 days (from 6-12 months)",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Now everything's matured. If you get it right small, you can scale really fast all the way up. So it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "it used to be that you had six months a year between small and large. Now it's six days.",
  "conv_cues": "now it's six days",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Now",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_072",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "247_023",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "242_031",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "230_020",
      "expected_date": "2063-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 2,
  "affiliation": "Schelling AI",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 238,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.520235+00:00",
  "source_refs": "darioamodei.com; AI Futurists Report",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-11",
  "key_catalyst": "Agentic platform revenue disclosures",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
  "flag_repeated": true,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "229, 238",
  "consensus_size": 11,
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (already happening)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "tot
... (truncated)