The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.

The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | you know, one of the things that that comes across that we talked about is the next 18 months to two years are going to set the rules down for the next century... So the decisions being made over the next 18- 24 months are going to persist for decades perhaps centuries.

you know, one of the things that that comes across that we talked about is the next 18 months to two years are going to set the rules down for the next century... So the decisions being made over the next 18- 24 months are going to persist for decades perhaps centuries.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100 years of lock-in",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the next 18 months to two years are going to set the rules down for the next century... the decisions being made over the next 18- 24 months are going to persist for decades perhaps centuries.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "you know, one of the things that that comes across that we talked about is the next 18 months to two years are going to set the rules down for the next century... So the decisions being made over the next 18- 24 months are going to persist for decades perhaps centuries.",
  "conv_cues": "going to set the rules",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next 18-24 months",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Trump EO 14179 'Removing Barriers to American Leadership in AI' signed (revokes Biden 2023 AI EO)",
      "source": "https://www.squirepattonboggs.com/insights/publications/key-insights-on-president-trumps-new-ai-executive-order-and-policy-regulatory-implications/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2025-01-20",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "White House publishes EO 14179 directing agencies to rescind AI-limiting policies"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EU AI Act GPAI provider obligations + governance rules become applicable",
      "source": "https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/ — governance + GPAI obligations applicable Aug 2 2025",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2025-08-02",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EU AI Act Article rules for GPAI providers and governance bodies enter into application per Commission timeline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colorado AI Act takes effect (first comprehensive US state AI law)",
      "source": "https://www.wsgr.com/en/insights/2026-year-in-preview-ai-regulatory-developments-for-companies-to-watch-out-for.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-
... (truncated)