Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era

Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | I keep on asking the experts I run into how far out can you predict the future? Yeah. And it used to be like 20 years and then it was like 10 years and now it's like 3 weeks

I keep on asking the experts I run into how far out can you predict the future? Yeah. And it used to be like 20 years and then it was like 10 years and now it's like 3 weeks

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{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "3 weeks",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I keep I it's it's I'm just something I keep on asking the experts I run into how far out can you predict the future? Yeah. And it used to be like 20 years and then it was like 10 years and now it's like 3 weeks [laughter] if that.",
  "verbatim": "I keep on asking the experts I run into how far out can you predict the future? Yeah. And it used to be like 20 years and then it was like 10 years and now it's like 3 weeks",
  "conv_cues": "now it's like",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "timeframe": "Now",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier model releases continue at <90 day cadence (GPT-5.5, Claude 4.7, Gemini 3.1) showing capability shift index updating weekly",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/technical-performance",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Stanford AI Index 2026 confirms <90-day frontier release cadence and Artificial Analysis / LiveBench leaderboards continue weekly score updates with capability deltas >2 points/quarter"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPQA Diamond saturation crossing 95% expert ceiling (forecast horizons collapse below 1 month)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "source_url": "https://smartchunks.com/gpqa-diamond-score-explained-ai-benchmark-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least one frontier model scores >=95% on GPQA Diamond per Stanford HAI / LMM leaderboard, and analyst commentary cites 'unforecastable' AI progress"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Public commentary from McKinsey / WEF / Anthropic explicitly references prediction horizon shrinking from years to weeks/months due to AI velocity",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "source_url": "https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/12/hiroshima-ai-process-governance/",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Two or more Tier-1 institutions (McKinsey, WEF, Anthropic, OpenAI, Stanford HAI) publish reports/posts explicitly citing collapse in forward forecasting reliability attributable to AI velocity"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "AI capability shift index (week-over-week) becomes a tracked metric on Epoch AI / Artificial Analysis dashboards",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/technical-performance",
      "expected_date": "2027-10-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Epoch AI or Artificial Analysis publishes a named 'capability velocity' or 'WoW capability shift' index dashboard tracked publicly"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "untimeabl
... (truncated)