ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.

ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | you've got the combination of ASI imminent models getting closed down and less access a couple years from now. This is the window right here, right now.

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you've got the combination of ASI imminent models getting closed down and less access a couple years from now. This is the window right here, right now.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "you've got the combination of ASI imminent models getting closed down and less access a couple years from now.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "you've got the combination of ASI imminent models getting closed down and less access a couple years from now. This is the window right here, right now.",
  "conv_cues": "ASI imminent",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "couple of years from 2026-04-18",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI withholds GPT-5.5 API access at launch requiring vetted-partner safeguards",
      "notes": "HIT - GPT-5.5 launched with API access withheld until April 24, 2026; supports the closed-down trajectory.",
      "source": "CNBC - OpenAI announces GPT-5.5 / OpenAI Help Center on enterprise model limits",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/openai-announces-latest-artificial-intelligence-model.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI delays public API access for new frontier model citing safety / safeguards review"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners only",
      "notes": "HIT - first major frontier-model gating event of 2026 specifically driven by capability tier.",
      "source": "The Register - OpenAI locks GPT-5.5-Cyber behind velvet rope",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.theregister.com/2026/05/01/openai_locks_gpt55cyber_behind_velvet/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-05-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI announces gated rollout of cyber-capable model first to vetted critical defenders not
... (truncated)