The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | I'm just like so excited about this future even the next like 12 to 18 months. Um the next 12 to 18 months I think will be like the largest AI transformation we've ever seen. | Capability milestones through end-2027
Key catalyst: Capability milestones through end-2027
Verbatim quote
I'm just like so excited about this future even the next like 12 to 18 months. Um the next 12 to 18 months I think will be like the largest AI transformation we've ever seen.
Resolution evidence
Next 12-18m largest AI transformation — consistent with all predictors.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.16696999999999995,
"inside_posterior": 0.83303,
"validation_notes": "Next 12-18m largest AI transformation — consistent with all predictors.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.83303,
"resolution_evidence": "Next 12-18m largest AI transformation — consistent with all predictors.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.099 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.056 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.166 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.164 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.126 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.125 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.098 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS | AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 | Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Next 12-18m largest AI transformation — consistent with all predictors. |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.660 | manifold | Largest company end of August 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.622 | manifold | Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028? | 34% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.610 | manifold | Will any NFL team(s) use significant amounts of AI generated content in their 2026 schedule release video? | 64% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "I'm just like so excited about this future even the next like 12 to 18 months. Um the next 12 to 18 months I think will be like the largest AI transformation we've ever seen.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "I'm just like so excited about this future even the next like 12 to 18 months. Um the next 12 to 18 months I think will be like the largest AI transformation we've ever seen.",
"conv_cues": "I think",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "next 12 to 18 months",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
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"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
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},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "229_013",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
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"expected_date": "2028-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
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"expected_date": "2028-09-07",
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},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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},
{
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"weight": 0.5,
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"source_id": "241_043",
"expected_date": "2033-08-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "SEM_034",
"expected_date": "2039-09-22",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 2,
"affiliation": "Figure / Hark",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 229,
"granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.062016+00:00",
"source_refs": "blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity; darioamodei.com",
"target_date": "2027-10-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_da
... (truncated)