COD_AI_003predictionGeopoliticsEU-AI-Act-compliance

EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

72.0%

Current probability

39.7%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-08-02 – 2026-08-02

Edges in / out

3 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

No leading signals identified yet.

2026-05-16pendingEU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay
2026-04-01 → 2026-07-31pendingDigital Omnibus trilogue concludes WITHOUT GPAI deadline extension
How: Final Trilogue text adopts the original 2 August 2026 GPAI enforcement deadline (no delay)
Source: https://techjacksolutions.com/ai-brief/eu-ai-act-deadline-delay-proposed-three-tracks-two-scenarios/ — Tech Jacks Trilogue analysisconf 65%
Notes: Three-track delay proposals exist but consensus is original deadline holds. Trilogue conclusion in next 1-3 months will resolve.
2026-06-01 → 2026-08-31pendingFrontier AI providers publish AI Act compliance documentation
How: Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta publish detailed EU AI Act GPAI compliance docs and model evaluation reports
Source: Lab safety/transparency blogs (anthropic.com/safety, openai.com/safety)conf 80%
2026-08-02pendingEU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin 2 August 2026
How: European Commission's enforcement powers in respect of GPAI model providers come into force per AI Act Article 113
Source: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/ — EU AI Act implementation timelineconf 85%
Notes: Per official EU AI Act timeline. Digital Omnibus discussions could amend, but base case is no delay.
2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst GPAI provider receives formal Commission investigation notice
How: European AI Office initiates formal investigation against a named GPAI provider (Anthropic, OpenAI, Mistral, peer)
Source: European Commission press, AI Office announcementsconf 55%

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z39.7%-2.2pp

Network propagation: 41.9% → 39.7%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z41.9%-4.5pp

Network propagation: 46.4% → 41.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.4%-9.1pp

Network propagation: 55.5% → 46.4%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z55.5%-16.5pp

Network propagation: 72.0% → 55.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

3 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (3)

ACN MSFT SAP

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_AI_PAUSE_2027	AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	—
correlate	S_AI_PAUSE_2028	AI pause beginning 2028	ai_regulatory_pause	—
correlate	S_AI_PAUSE_2026	Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	ai_regulatory_pause	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-08-02	EU AI Act bulk application/GPAI enforcement powers	pending

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	European Commission - AI Act	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-28
0.700	codex_research_pack	European Commission - Guidelines for providers of general-purpose AI models	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-28
0.585	manifold	Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026	14%	mentions	pending	2026-06-01
0.584	manifold	Next unique country Tetra visits after 11th June 2026	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-06
0.558	manifold	Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_AI_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Digital Omnibus trilogue concludes WITHOUT GPAI deadline extension",
      "notes": "Three-track delay proposals exist but consensus is original deadline holds. Trilogue conclusion in next 1-3 months will resolve.",
      "source": "https://techjacksolutions.com/ai-brief/eu-ai-act-deadline-delay-proposed-three-tracks-two-scenarios/ — Tech Jacks Trilogue analysis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://techjacksolutions.com/ai-brief/eu-ai-act-deadline-delay-proposed-three-tracks-two-scenarios/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-07-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Final Trilogue text adopts the original 2 August 2026 GPAI enforcement deadline (no delay)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier AI providers publish AI Act compliance documentation",
      "source": "Lab safety/transparency blogs (anthropic.com/safety, openai.com/safety)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-08-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta publish detailed EU AI Act GPAI compliance docs and model evaluation reports"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin 2 August 2026",
      "notes": "Per official EU AI Act timeline. Digital Omnibus discussions could amend, but base case is no delay.",
      "source": "https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/ — EU AI Act implementation timeline",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/implementation-timeline/",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "European Commission's enforcement powers in respect of GPAI model providers come into force per AI Act Article 113"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First GPAI provider receives formal Commission investigation notice",
      "source": "European Commission press, AI Office announcements",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "European AI Office initiates formal investigation against a named GPAI provider (Anthropic, OpenAI, Mistral, peer)"
    }
  ],
  "source_ids": [
    "SRC_EU_AI_ACT",
    "SRC_EU_GPAI_GUIDELINES"
  ],
  "display_date": "2026-05-16",
  "suggested_edges": [
    {
      "kind": "correlate",
      "src_id": "S_AI_PAUSE_2027",
      "weight": 0.3
    }
  ],
  "ticker_exposures": {
    "adverse": [],
    "beneficiaries": [
      "ACN",
      "MSFT",
      "SAP"
    ]
  },
  "milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-02T03:20:48.989547+00:00",
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:50.715368+00:00"
}