S_AI_PAUSE_2028scenarioai_regulatory_pause
AI pause beginning 2028
Prior probability
10.0%
Current probability
10.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 19
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Capability incident triggers regulatory response.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: regulatory_freeze_window
Linked
Major-country regulatory pause/moratorium on AI capability research lasting >6 months
Base rate
5.0%
0/4 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 10%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (19)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_017 | Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_037 | EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | COD_AI_003 | EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | CYB_005 | 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_010 | As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 246_055 | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_003 | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 230_044 | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 235_046 | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | AUT_024 | H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_025 | Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_015 | The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 years of Industrial Revolution economic upheaval compressed into 3 traumatic years — followed by the dawn of the 'Agentic Era' in 2027 where autonomous AI agents pa... | Labor/Jobs | — |
Linked documents (7)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.647 | manifold | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.629 | manifold | Will Deno Deploy acknowledge the incidents of 13th of May 2026 on their status page? | 10% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.583 | manifold | Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026? | 7% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.579 | manifold | Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027? | 28% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.561 | edgar_8k | HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC (HON) (CIK 0000773840) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.561 | edgar_8k | HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC (HON) (CIK 0000773840) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.560 | manifold | Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026? | 35% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "pause",
"dimension": "ai_regulatory_pause",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "AI pause",
"family_order": 3,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}