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230_044predictionGeopoliticsAI-timing

Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | I had one of the senior AI leads in the in the world um who I invited to come and speak at the at the Abundance Summit basically said their policy in their organization was to do no outside speaking because of the death threats they're receiving >> and they can't get sufficient security. So, one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
I had one of the senior AI leads in the in the world um who I invited to come and speak at the at the Abundance Summit basically said their policy in their organization was to do no outside speaking because of the death threats they're receiving >> and they can't get sufficient security. So, one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Security threats against AI executives — yes, some public safety concerns (Sam Altman security, Dario threats reported).

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-01-28hitAnthropic CEO Amodei makes public 'Humanity needs to wake up' AI threats statement — populist concern channel forming
    How: Major AI CEO issues public warning about AI threats receiving widespread populist coverage
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 75%
  2. 2026-04-10hitVance, Bessent convene tech CEOs (Altman, Amodei, Musk, Pichai, Nadella) on AI cyber-threat security briefing — admin-level recognition of AI exec threat surface
    How: Public reporting of senior US officials convening top AI CEOs on security/threat issues
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 78%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst confirmed credible death threat or attack against a named frontier-AI executive (FBI/DOJ disclosure or CEO public statement)
    How: Federal law enforcement or company filing confirms a credible threat or physical incident targeting an AI executive
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMass anti-AI protest event with >10,000 participants in major US/EU city
    How: Documented public protest specifically targeting AI/automation displacement with verified turnout >10K
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMajor frontier AI company adopts no-public-speaking policy or relocates HQ for executive safety
    How: OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, or Google DeepMind publicly limits exec appearances or moves operations citing security
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.8%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.9% → 50.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.9%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 51.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.7%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.057
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.049
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.037

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.013
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.012
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.008
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.008
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
correlateS_AI_PAUSE_2028AI pause beginning 2028ai_regulatory_pause
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "I had one of the senior AI leads in the in the world um who I invited to come and speak at the at the Abundance Summit basically said their policy in their organization was to do no outside speaking because of the death threats they're receiving >> and they can't get sufficient security. So, one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be a target",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic CEO Amodei makes public 'Humanity needs to wake up' AI threats statement — populist concern channel forming",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/next/2026/01/28/humanity-needs-to-wake-up-to-ai-threats-anthropic-ceo-says",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major AI CEO issues public warning about AI threats receiving widespread populist coverage"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vance, Bessent convene tech CEOs (Altman, Amodei, Musk, Pichai, Nadella) on AI cyber-threat security briefing — admin-level recognition of AI exec threat surface",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/trump-white-house-ai-cyber-threat-anthropic-mythos.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-10",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public reporting of senior US officials convening top AI CEOs on security/threat issues"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": 
... (truncated)