Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | I had one of the senior AI leads in the in the world um who I invited to come and speak at the at the Abundance Summit basically said their policy in their organization was to do no outside speaking because of the death threats they're receiving >> and they can't get sufficient security. So, one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.
Verbatim quote
I had one of the senior AI leads in the in the world um who I invited to come and speak at the at the Abundance Summit basically said their policy in their organization was to do no outside speaking because of the death threats they're receiving >> and they can't get sufficient security. So, one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.
Resolution evidence
Security threats against AI executives — yes, some public safety concerns (Sam Altman security, Dario threats reported).
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-28hitAnthropic CEO Amodei makes public 'Humanity needs to wake up' AI threats statement — populist concern channel formingHow: Major AI CEO issues public warning about AI threats receiving widespread populist coverageSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 75%
- 2026-04-10hitVance, Bessent convene tech CEOs (Altman, Amodei, Musk, Pichai, Nadella) on AI cyber-threat security briefing — admin-level recognition of AI exec threat surfaceHow: Public reporting of senior US officials convening top AI CEOs on security/threat issuesSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 78%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst confirmed credible death threat or attack against a named frontier-AI executive (FBI/DOJ disclosure or CEO public statement)How: Federal law enforcement or company filing confirms a credible threat or physical incident targeting an AI executiveSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMass anti-AI protest event with >10,000 participants in major US/EU cityHow: Documented public protest specifically targeting AI/automation displacement with verified turnout >10KSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMajor frontier AI company adopts no-public-speaking policy or relocates HQ for executive safetyHow: OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, or Google DeepMind publicly limits exec appearances or moves operations citing securitySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.037 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.013 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.012 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| correlate | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 | AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "I had one of the senior AI leads in the in the world um who I invited to come and speak at the at the Abundance Summit basically said their policy in their organization was to do no outside speaking because of the death threats they're receiving >> and they can't get sufficient security. So, one of the big concerns is when the populace turns against tech, uh, there's going to be a target on the back of a lot of people in the AI and tech industry.",
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"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/trump-white-house-ai-cyber-threat-anthropic-mythos.html",
"expected_date": "2026-04-10",
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"kind":
... (truncated)