AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.

AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | Impossible. Impossible.

Impossible. Impossible.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "context": "One of the points he made was everybody's economically incentivized to keep it going and race it along. and the US, China, you know, it's like all the incentives are in place that make it highly improbable and almost impossible. Ben, what are your thoughts? Impossible. Impossible.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "verbatim": "Impossible. Impossible.",
  "conv_cues": "Impossible",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "US Senate rejects 10-year federal AI moratorium 99-1",
      "notes": "HIT — Senate stripped state moratorium 99-1, signaling no political appetite for AI pause at federal level.",
      "source": "Lewis Silkin: AI regulation update — US withdraws state moratorium",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.lewissilkin.com/insights/2025/07/17/ai-regulation-update-us-eu-uk-us-withdraws-state-moratorium-and-the-european-co-102ktq5",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "US Senate vote on AI regulation moratorium provision in major legislation rejects pause by overwhelming majority"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "1,500+ state AI bills introduced in 2026 — fragmentation, not pause",
      "notes": "HIT — 1,500+ bills in 45 states by March 2026, exceeding 2025 total. Confirms regulation cannot achieve pause.",
      "source": "Baker Botts: US AI Law Update January 2026; National Law Review 85 Predictions",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.bakerbotts.com/thought-leadership/publications/2026/january/us-ai-law-update",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "US state legislatures collectively introduce >=1,500 AI bills by end Q1 2026 — patchwork rather than pause"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex hits $725B — no slowdown despite backlash"
... (truncated)