We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens.

We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | we're not going to figure it out until after something really bad happens.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

we're not going to figure it out until after something really bad happens.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "But we'll figure it out. But we're not going to figure it out until after something really bad happens.",
  "verbatim": "we're not going to figure it out until after something really bad happens.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Indeterminate near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Trump executive order preempts state AI laws (Dec 2025)",
      "notes": "HIT — but in OPPOSITE direction: Trump EO LIGHTENS regulation pre-incident. This sets up the Blundin scenario where regulation only comes post-incident.",
      "source": "King & Spalding — Trump executive order December 11, 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.kslaw.com/news-and-insights/new-state-ai-laws-are-effective-on-january-1-2026-but-a-new-executive-order-signals-disruption",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-11",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Trump signs EO 'Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence' that preempts state AI laws deemed inconsistent"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "California SB 53 (TFAIA) requires critical safety incident reporting",
      "notes": "HIT — SB 53 effective Jan 1, 2026. First state law that codifies 'something bad happens' incident-reporting framework. Pre-incident not post-incident, contra Blundin's framing.",
      "source": "King & Spalding — New State AI Laws Effective January 1, 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.kslaw.com/news-and-insights/new-state-ai-laws-are-effective-on-january-1-2026-but-a-new-executive-order-signals-disruption",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "California Transparency in Frontier AI Act takes effect requiring critical safety incident reporting from frontier model providers — first US state-level frontier AI safety law"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sora 2 deepfake election interference triggers regulatory response",
      "notes": "HIT — first 'something bad happened' moment with public corporate response. Sora pulled BEFORE regulator action — vendor self-regulated. OECD AI Incident #2026-03-28-b14f documents 2026 US midterm election deepfake misuse.",
      "source": "OPB / NPR — OpenAI pulls plug on Sora over deepfake concerns (March 24, 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.opb.org/article/2026/03/24/openai-pulls-the-plug-on-sora-the-viral-ai-video-app-that-sparked-deepfake-concerns/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-09",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-26",
        "from": "2026-03-24"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OECD AI Incident database, OpenAI corporate response, or US/EU regulator formal action — Sora pulled from market or formally constrained due to election deepfake misuse"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "International AI Safety Report 2026 documents catastrophic risk pathways",
      "notes": "HIT — formal catastrophic risk taxonomy. Sets framework for what 'something really bad' could mean.",
      "source": "Hogan Lovells — International AI Safety Report 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.hoganlovells.com/en/publica
... (truncated)