Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold
Predictor: Salim Ismail · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.
Verbatim quote
So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.
Predictor: Salim Ismail
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Salim Ismail is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-04hitXPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II completes wild-card registrationHow: XPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II registration closes with documented entrant countSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingXPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winnersHow: XPRIZE Foundation announces grand-prize winner(s) for the Wildfire competition with disclosed prize amountSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingXPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition)How: XPRIZE confirms semifinals testing started for Water Scarcity competition with named finalists advancingSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingXPRIZE launches new $100M+ competition explicitly tied to fundamental AI/AGI safety or grand-challengeHow: XPRIZE Foundation announces new prize purse >=$100M with named challenge category targeting fundamental problemSource: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-03-27pendingMulti-XPRIZE winners attract follow-on commercial deployment >=$1B aggregateHow: Independent industry tracking shows XPRIZE-winning teams collectively raise >=$1B in commercial follow-on funding within 3 yearsSource: llm_enrichedconf 45%
- 2028-01-01 → 2029-03-27pendingPublic-narrative shift: mainstream coverage frames XPRIZE-style approaches as default for civilizational challengesHow: Sustained coverage in NYT/Economist/Atlantic-tier publications framing prize-driven innovation as primary tool for grand challenges (>=10 features over 12 months)Source: llm_enrichedconf 25%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.044 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.040 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.034 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.587 | polymarket | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 45% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.584 | polymarket | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 62% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-25 |
| 0.565 | polymarket | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | 33% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-14 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "2-3 years",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "PROPHECY",
"role": "Host",
"context": "So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.",
"conv_cues": "will disappear",
"direction": "DOWN",
"from_year": 2028,
"timeframe": "2028-2029",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "XPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II completes wild-card registration",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.xprize.org/competitions/qc-apps",
"expected_date": "2026-03-04",
"observed_date": "2026-03-04",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "XPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II registration closes with documented entrant count"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "XPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winners",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.xprize.org/competitions",
"expected_date": "2026-09-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "XPRIZE Foundation announces grand-prize winner(s) for the Wildfire competition with disclosed prize amount"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "XPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://xprize.org/competitions/water",
"expected_date": "2026-11-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_
... (truncated)