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238_059predictionMacro/EconomyAI-timing

Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold

Predictor: Salim Ismail · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
42.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-01-01 – 2029-12-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.

Predictor: Salim Ismail

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.643
Brier
0.0144
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 2 resolved
Hit rate
50.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Salim Ismail is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-03-04hitXPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II completes wild-card registration
    How: XPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II registration closes with documented entrant count
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingXPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winners
    How: XPRIZE Foundation announces grand-prize winner(s) for the Wildfire competition with disclosed prize amount
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  3. 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingXPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition)
    How: XPRIZE confirms semifinals testing started for Water Scarcity competition with named finalists advancing
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingXPRIZE launches new $100M+ competition explicitly tied to fundamental AI/AGI safety or grand-challenge
    How: XPRIZE Foundation announces new prize purse >=$100M with named challenge category targeting fundamental problem
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2029-03-27pendingMulti-XPRIZE winners attract follow-on commercial deployment >=$1B aggregate
    How: Independent industry tracking shows XPRIZE-winning teams collectively raise >=$1B in commercial follow-on funding within 3 years
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%
  6. 2028-01-01 → 2029-03-27pendingPublic-narrative shift: mainstream coverage frames XPRIZE-style approaches as default for civilizational challenges
    How: Sustained coverage in NYT/Economist/Atlantic-tier publications framing prize-driven innovation as primary tool for grand challenges (>=10 features over 12 months)
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.1%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 42.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.2%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 44.7% → 43.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.7%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 44.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.9%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050-0.072
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.044
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5000.050-0.040
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.034

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.079
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050-0.068
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.057
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.052
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.030

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.587polymarketO/U 1.5 Rounds45%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.584polymarketO/U 2.5 Rounds62%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.565polymarketTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?33%mentionspending2026-04-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2-3 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "So this era of greed and the kind of ignoring the fundamental problems uh literally will disappear and evaporate in the next two to three years as we keep working that prize and getting the media word out there.",
  "conv_cues": "will disappear",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028-2029",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "XPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II completes wild-card registration",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.xprize.org/competitions/qc-apps",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-04",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-04",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "XPRIZE Quantum Applications Phase II registration closes with documented entrant count"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "XPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winners",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.xprize.org/competitions",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "XPRIZE Foundation announces grand-prize winner(s) for the Wildfire competition with disclosed prize amount"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "XPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://xprize.org/competitions/water",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_
... (truncated)