AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.
Predictor: Ben Horowitz · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source
Prediction text
AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | with anything biological you have the whole you know human trials and all these kinds of things and um well I'll give you like an example we we're close partners with Eli Lily and they have this thing Lily direct and like the natural thing is like an AI doctor can write those prescriptions, you know, tell it tell us what's wrong with you and we'll figure out the right drug. Um, that that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.
Verbatim quote
with anything biological you have the whole you know human trials and all these kinds of things and um well I'll give you like an example we we're close partners with Eli Lily and they have this thing Lily direct and like the natural thing is like an AI doctor can write those prescriptions, you know, tell it tell us what's wrong with you and we'll figure out the right drug. Um, that that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.
Predictor: Ben Horowitz
Evidence about this node from Ben Horowitz is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.044 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.037 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.009 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-06-30 | [Biology 2028-06] [232_036] AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.586 | fda | FDA ANDA079162: TOPIRAMATE (TOPIRAMATE) — INVAGEN PHARMS | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
| 0.567 | fda | FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.565 | fda | FDA BLA761044: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — JANSSEN BIOTECH | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-15 |
| 0.565 | fda | FDA NDA210308: YONSA (ABIRATERONE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.565 | fda | FDA BLA761285: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.562 | fda | FDA ANDA218872: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.557 | fda | FDA ANDA206252: QUETIAPINE FUMARATE (QUETIAPINE FUMARATE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-22 |
| 0.556 | polymarket | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? | 3% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.547 | fda | FDA NDA022454: DATSCAN (IOFLUPANE I-123) — GE HLTHCARE INC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-15 |
| 0.546 | fda | FDA ANDA208052: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-VC",
"context": "that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "with anything biological you have the whole you know human trials and all these kinds of things and um well I'll give you like an example we we're close partners with Eli Lily and they have this thing Lily direct and like the natural thing is like an AI doctor can write those prescriptions, you know, tell it tell us what's wrong with you and we'll figure out the right drug. Um, that that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.",
"conv_cues": "very hard; very easy",
"direction": "MIXED",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "232_036",
"expected_date": "2028-06-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "247_035",
"expected_date": "2030-04-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "246_017",
"expected_date": "2030-10-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "235_030",
"expected_date": "2033-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "246_016",
"expected_date": "2034-09-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade"
... (truncated)