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232_036predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.

Predictor: Ben Horowitz · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
34

Prediction text

AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | with anything biological you have the whole you know human trials and all these kinds of things and um well I'll give you like an example we we're close partners with Eli Lily and they have this thing Lily direct and like the natural thing is like an AI doctor can write those prescriptions, you know, tell it tell us what's wrong with you and we'll figure out the right drug. Um, that that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
with anything biological you have the whole you know human trials and all these kinds of things and um well I'll give you like an example we we're close partners with Eli Lily and they have this thing Lily direct and like the natural thing is like an AI doctor can write those prescriptions, you know, tell it tell us what's wrong with you and we'll figure out the right drug. Um, that that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.

Predictor: Ben Horowitz

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Ben Horowitz is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.3%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.4% → 46.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.4%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 49.1% → 47.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.1%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5500.050-0.081
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.049
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5500.050-0.044
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.042
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.037

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.054
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050-0.042
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.033
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.024
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.009

Ticker exposure

34 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-06-30[Biology 2028-06] [232_036] AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAEpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.586fdaFDA ANDA079162: TOPIRAMATE (TOPIRAMATE) — INVAGEN PHARMSmentionspending2026-04-24
0.567fdaFDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INCmentionspending2026-05-12
0.565fdaFDA BLA761044: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — JANSSEN BIOTECHmentionspending2026-04-15
0.565fdaFDA NDA210308: YONSA (ABIRATERONE ACETATE) — SUN PHARMmentionspending2026-05-13
0.565fdaFDA BLA761285: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INCmentionspending2026-05-12
0.562fdaFDA ANDA218872: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ACCORD HLTHCAREmentionspending2026-04-27
0.557fdaFDA ANDA206252: QUETIAPINE FUMARATE (QUETIAPINE FUMARATE) — ACCORD HLTHCAREmentionspending2026-04-22
0.556polymarketSaudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?3%mentionspending2026-05-15
0.547fdaFDA NDA022454: DATSCAN (IOFLUPANE I-123) — GE HLTHCARE INCmentionspending2026-04-15
0.546fdaFDA ANDA208052: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMSmentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
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  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "context": "that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "with anything biological you have the whole you know human trials and all these kinds of things and um well I'll give you like an example we we're close partners with Eli Lily and they have this thing Lily direct and like the natural thing is like an AI doctor can write those prescriptions, you know, tell it tell us what's wrong with you and we'll figure out the right drug. Um, that that's very hard to launch in the US. Um, it's, you know, that's going to take quite a bit of work. Um, very easy to launch in UAE.",
  "conv_cues": "very hard; very easy",
  "direction": "MIXED",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "232_036",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "247_035",
      "expected_date": "2030-04-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "246_017",
      "expected_date": "2030-10-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "246_016",
      "expected_date": "2034-09-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade"
... (truncated)