Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Disney World is going to retain value. Large physical events are going to return retain value. Uh as ASI real estate is going to retain value five years. not only just real estate but uh organizational structures uh that aren't digitized... I think minerals like minerals and mining are going to have huge increases in value.
Verbatim quote
Disney World is going to retain value. Large physical events are going to return retain value. Uh as ASI real estate is going to retain value five years. not only just real estate but uh organizational structures uh that aren't digitized... I think minerals like minerals and mining are going to have huge increases in value.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-15hitInternational Copper Study Group reports 150kt copper deficit forecast for 2026 (reversal of prior surplus)How: ICSG bulletin shows 2026 expected refined copper shortfall of ~150kt vs prior +200kt forecastSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingCopper price reaches $12,000/ton (JPMorgan/UBS 2026 trajectory)How: LME 3-month copper closes >$12,000/ton on multiple settlement datesSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingUS REIT-listed industrial real estate (data-center adjacent) outperforms S&P 500 by 25%+ over 3-year periodHow: Total return for industrial/data-center REITs exceeds S&P 500 by 25 percentage points cumulative over 3ySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2028-06-01 → 2031-07-11pendingMining sector capex returns to 2012-cycle peak of $200B+ globally driven by AI-electrification demandHow: Top-40 miners aggregate capex reaches $200B+ per S&P/SNL or McKinsey trackingSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2029-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingAI data centers hit 500kt annual copper consumption (~3% of global demand)How: S&P Global or Wood Mackenzie reports AI data-center copper consumption surpassing 500kt/yrSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.083 |
| prereq | SEM_005 Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distr — Sam Altman | 72.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.080 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.046 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.040 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.011 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.009 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.002 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.002 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.593 | manifold | How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Disney World is going to retain value. Large physical events... real estate is going to retain value five years... I think minerals like minerals and mining are going to have huge increases in value.",
"to_year": 2031,
"verbatim": "Disney World is going to retain value. Large physical events are going to return retain value. Uh as ASI real estate is going to retain value five years. not only just real estate but uh organizational structures uh that aren't digitized... I think minerals like minerals and mining are going to have huge increases in value.",
"conv_cues": "I think",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2031,
"timeframe": "5 years",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "International Copper Study Group reports 150kt copper deficit forecast for 2026 (reversal of prior surplus)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/why-copper-markets-are-feeling-the-pinch",
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "ICSG bulletin shows 2026 expected refined copper shortfall of ~150kt vs prior +200kt forecast"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Copper price reaches $12,000/ton (JPMorgan/UBS 2026 trajectory)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://www.mining.com/ai-demand-seen-pushing-copper-price-longer-term/",
"expected_date": "2026-09-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "LME 3-month copper closes >$12,000/ton on multiple settlement dates"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_005",
"expected_date": "2028-02-09",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "US REIT-listed industrial real estate (data-center adjacent) outperforms S&P 500 by 25%+ over 3-year period",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
... (truncated)