AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | I've been predicting on the public record for many many episodes now that we're nearing a time, in fact, we'll talk about it later in this episode, when AI is positioned to bulk solve math, the physical sciences, engineering, medicine, material sciences. These will all get bulk solved.
Verbatim quote
I've been predicting on the public record for many many episodes now that we're nearing a time, in fact, we'll talk about it later in this episode, when AI is positioned to bulk solve math, the physical sciences, engineering, medicine, material sciences. These will all get bulk solved.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-01hitOpen-source AI literature-review tool surpasses major LLMs on citation accuracyHow: Nature documents AI tool exceeding major LLMs at scientific literature review with human-level citation accuracySource: Nature: Open-source AI tool beats giant LLMs in literature reviewsconf 85%
- 2026-03-01overdueAI compresses drug-discovery timelines from years to weeks (validated pipeline)How: Published case study or industry confirmation of AI compressing lead-to-candidate timeline by >=10x in named therapeutic programSource: Medium / industry analysis: How AI is Transforming Drug Discovery in 2026conf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAutonomous AI agent contributes co-author / primary credit on Nature/Science paperHow: AI agent listed as substantive contributor (co-author or methodological primary) in Nature/Science/Cell/PNAS publication for novel scientific resultSource: Nature/Science journal listingsconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAI solves new mathematical conjecture or proves significant open problemHow: AI system credited (e.g., AlphaProof-class) with novel proof of significant open conjecture, validated by Fields-medalist-level reviewSource: Annals of Mathematics; arXiv math reviewconf 45%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAI discovers new material with experimentally verified order-of-magnitude property improvementHow: AI-designed material (battery, superconductor, catalyst) experimentally verified to deliver >=10x improvement on key figure of merit vs prior state-of-artSource: Nature Materials; ACS journalsconf 45%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI-driven AGI/AI labs report multiple sciences 'bulk-solved' simultaneouslyHow: >=3 distinct scientific domains report concurrent AI-driven step-change discoveries (math, physics, materials, biology) within rolling 12-month windowSource: Royal Society / NAS reports; AI-lab annual papersconf 30%Notes: Direct test of 'bulk solve' simultaneity claim.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"kappa": 0.8438,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
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"bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.4471180434475905,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
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"contributions": [
{
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"label": "AI compresses drug-discovery timelines from years to weeks (validated pipeline)",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.6,
"source_url": "https://medium.com/@unicodeveloper/how-ai-is-transforming-drug-discovery-in-2026-0d8c7c600428",
"adjusted_llr": -0.20527887493300145,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"measurement_criterion": "Published case study or industry confirmation of AI compressing lead-to-candidate timeline by >=10x in named therapeutic program"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
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"posterior_prob": 0.3970910108149057,
"posterior_logit": -0.41760075449539147,
"predictor_brier": 0.03413,
"inside_posterior": 0.3970910108149057,
"blended_posterior": 0.3970910108149057,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.20527887493300145,
"predictor_n_resolved": 11
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.058 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.035 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.019 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.015 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.086 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.061 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "I've been predicting on the public record for many many episodes now that we're nearing a time... when AI is positioned to bulk solve math, the physical sciences, engineering, medicine, material sciences. These will all get bulk solved.",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "I've been predicting on the public record for many many episodes now that we're nearing a time, in fact, we'll talk about it later in this episode, when AI is positioned to bulk solve math, the physical sciences, engineering, medicine, material sciences. These will all get bulk solved.",
"conv_cues": "been predicting on the public record",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "nearing a time / starting now",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
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"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
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... (truncated)