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232_054predictionAIAI-timing

SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.

Predictor: Ben Horowitz · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
42.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | I mean, if he pulls it off, uh it will change a lot of things. Yes.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
I mean, if he pulls it off, uh it will change a lot of things. Yes.

Predictor: Ben Horowitz

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Ben Horowitz is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2025-04-12hitSSI raises $2B at $32B valuation (6x in <1yr) — capital base for Sutskever's bet validated
    How: SSI closes financing round at multibillion-dollar pre-money confirming investor commitment to Sutskever's safe-superintelligence-first thesis
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2025-06-15hitSSI co-founder Daniel Gross departs to Meta (mid-2025) — talent risk; SSI now solely Sutskever-led
    How: Public reporting confirms Gross departure and any related Meta acquisition attempt
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingSSI publishes first technical paper or capability demonstration (currently zero public artifacts as of 2026)
    How: SSI releases a paper, blog post, or demo establishing technical credibility beyond founder reputation
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingSSI valuation crosses $100B OR shuts down/sells (binary outcome on Sutskever pulling it off)
    How: Either: subsequent funding at >$100B pre-money, OR public reports of failure/sale to incumbent
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingIf SSI succeeds: industry-wide pivot to 'synthetic reasoning + specialized TPUs' away from data-hungry scaling
    How: Two or more major frontier labs publicly redirect compute strategy toward synthetic-reasoning-style training
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 20%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.1%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 42.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.2%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 44.7% → 43.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.7%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 44.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.9%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050-0.072
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.044
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5000.050-0.040
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.034

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.079
prereq247_035
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38.8%0.7000.050-0.068
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.057
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.052
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.030

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.681manifoldWill Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?59%mentionspending2026-04-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "caveats": "Conditional: 'if he pulls it off'",
  "context": "So, Ilia, if you're listening, come come and join us on the pod here. Oh, that'll be great. Uh, so you can't say what he's working on, but in that first meeting, was it his ability to attract the talent that was unique or was it really just the idea immediately as soon as you hear it, you're like, 'Oh my god.' Well, you know, the here's an easy way to characterize it. It was an idea that he thought was so important um that it made sense for him to leave OpenAI as like founding CTO to do it. And and it was clear to you as a listener that this is this is something totally different. I mean, if he pulls it off, uh it will change a lot of things. Yes.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "verbatim": "I mean, if he pulls it off, uh it will change a lot of things. Yes.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SSI raises $2B at $32B valuation (6x in <1yr) — capital base for Sutskever's bet validated",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/12/openai-co-founder-ilya-sutskevers-safe-superintelligence-reportedly-valued-at-32b/",
      "expected_date": "2025-04-12",
      "observed_date": "2025-04-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SSI closes financing round at multibillion-dollar pre-money confirming investor commitment to Sutskever's safe-superintelligence-first thesis"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SSI co-founder Daniel Gross departs to Meta (mid-2025) — talent risk; SSI now solely Sutskever-led",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/12/openai-co-founder-ilya-sutskevers-safe-superintelligence-reportedly-valued-at-32b/",
      "expected_date": "2025-06-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public reporting confirms Gross departure and any related Meta acquisition attempt"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
... (truncated)