US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source
Prediction text
US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.
Verbatim quote
the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingStargate Phase 1 ($100B+ committed) campus reaches first GW of operational capacityHow: OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle Stargate program announces first campus reaches >=1 GW operational with hyperscale customer (OpenAI training runs) consuming the loadSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2027-12-31pendingSchmidt-cited 29 GW of additional AI-focused data-center power online by 2027How: EIA, FERC, or Goldman Sachs aggregate report confirms cumulative new data-center power capacity additions >=29 GW between 2025-2027 baseline, with majority attributable to AI workloadsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2027-12-31pendingGoldman Sachs aggregate data-center power demand reaches 84 GW by 2027 (AI = 27%)How: Goldman Sachs Global Markets or equivalent analyst aggregate confirms US data-center electricity demand crossed 84 GW threshold, with AI workload share >=25%Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingGrid investment passes $720B cumulative spend ($240B/yr run rate)How: Edison Electric Institute or FERC aggregate transmission/distribution capex data confirms cumulative US grid spend in 2025-2030 window matches Goldman Sachs $720B forecast within +/-15%Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2030-12-31pendingSchmidt-cited additional 67 GW of AI power online cumulative 2027-2030How: EIA / FERC cumulative interconnection report shows >=67 GW additional data-center capacity activated 2028-2030, validating 80 GW total ask within 3-5 year envelopeSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| prereq | SEM_005 Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distr — Sam Altman | 72.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.054 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.017 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.005 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.004 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.004 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (12)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 | Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 | Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 | Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030 | compute_scale | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (5)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | OpenAI - Announcing The Stargate Project | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-01-21 |
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | OpenAI - Stargate advances with 4.5 GW partnership with Oracle | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-07-22 |
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | SoftBank - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-09-24 |
| 0.605 | gdelt | usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,1057510.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.593 | gdelt | usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,288224.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "80 gigawatts",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"caveats": "Cited from video clip",
"context": "need one gawatt, 5 gawatt, 10 gawatts each. Now, the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.",
"to_year": 2031,
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.",
"conv_cues": "best study I've seen; needs",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2029,
"timeframe": "next 3 to 5 years",
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"milestones": [
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"kind": "prereq",
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{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"source": "deep_research_enriched",
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"source_url": "https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/ai-data-centers-us-electric-grid",
"expected_date": "2027-05-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
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},
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},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
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},
{
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"source_url": "https://futurism.com/google-ceo-congress-electricity-ai-superintelligence",
"expected_date": "2027-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "EIA, FERC, or Goldman Sachs aggregate report confirms cumulative new data-center power capacity additions >=29 GW between 2025-2027 baseline, with majority attributable to AI workloads"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Gol
... (truncated)