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231_030predictionEnergyAI-timing

US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
49.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31
Edges in / out
12 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.664

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 49.1% → blend 49.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 49.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingStargate Phase 1 ($100B+ committed) campus reaches first GW of operational capacity
    How: OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle Stargate program announces first campus reaches >=1 GW operational with hyperscale customer (OpenAI training runs) consuming the load
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  2. 2027-12-31pendingSchmidt-cited 29 GW of additional AI-focused data-center power online by 2027
    How: EIA, FERC, or Goldman Sachs aggregate report confirms cumulative new data-center power capacity additions >=29 GW between 2025-2027 baseline, with majority attributable to AI workloads
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2027-12-31pendingGoldman Sachs aggregate data-center power demand reaches 84 GW by 2027 (AI = 27%)
    How: Goldman Sachs Global Markets or equivalent analyst aggregate confirms US data-center electricity demand crossed 84 GW threshold, with AI workload share >=25%
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingGrid investment passes $720B cumulative spend ($240B/yr run rate)
    How: Edison Electric Institute or FERC aggregate transmission/distribution capex data confirms cumulative US grid spend in 2025-2030 window matches Goldman Sachs $720B forecast within +/-15%
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  5. 2030-12-31pendingSchmidt-cited additional 67 GW of AI power online cumulative 2027-2030
    How: EIA / FERC cumulative interconnection report shows >=67 GW additional data-center capacity activated 2028-2030, validating 80 GW total ask within 3-5 year envelope
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 49%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.1%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 50.9% → 49.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.9%-3.2pp
Network propagation: 54.1% → 50.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z54.1%+2.3pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.633 blend=0.541 LLR=0.477 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z51.8%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 53.0% → 51.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z53.0%-7.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.530 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6000.050-0.075
prereqSEM_005
Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distrSam Altman
72.3%0.6000.050-0.072
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.054
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.6000.050-0.035
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.032

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.017
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.005
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.004
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.004
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.003

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (12)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
correlateS_COMPUTE_1GW_2027Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
correlateS_COMPUTE_100GW_2030Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030compute_scale
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.750codex_research_packOpenAI - Announcing The Stargate Projectcorroboratespending2025-01-21
0.750codex_research_packOpenAI - Stargate advances with 4.5 GW partnership with Oraclecorroboratespending2025-07-22
0.750codex_research_packSoftBank - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sitescorroboratespending2025-09-24
0.605gdeltusa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,1057510.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.593gdeltusa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,288224.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "80 gigawatts",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "caveats": "Cited from video clip",
  "context": "need one gawatt, 5 gawatt, 10 gawatts each. Now, the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "the best study I've seen indicates that the industry in America needs 80 gawatts in the next 3 to 5 years. Now 80 gawatt by the way let me tell you how big is that 1.5 gawatt is the size of a nuclear power plant.",
  "conv_cues": "best study I've seen; needs",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2029,
  "timeframe": "next 3 to 5 years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stargate Phase 1 ($100B+ committed) campus reaches first GW of operational capacity",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/ai-data-centers-us-electric-grid",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle Stargate program announces first campus reaches >=1 GW operational with hyperscale customer (OpenAI training runs) consuming the load"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "S_GRID_50GW_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Schmidt-cited 29 GW of additional AI-focused data-center power online by 2027",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://futurism.com/google-ceo-congress-electricity-ai-superintelligence",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EIA, FERC, or Goldman Sachs aggregate report confirms cumulative new data-center power capacity additions >=29 GW between 2025-2027 baseline, with majority attributable to AI workloads"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Gol
... (truncated)