Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election

Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | This is all on the table for 2028. Um, now, will all of that come together? Don't know. Um, but certainly every piece is there.

This is all on the table for 2028. Um, now, will all of that come together? Don't know. Um, but certainly every piece is there.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "caveats": "Don't know if all will come together",
  "context": "This is all on the table for 2028. Um, now, will all of that come together? Don't know. Um, but certainly every piece is there.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "This is all on the table for 2028. Um, now, will all of that come together? Don't know. Um, but certainly every piece is there.",
  "conv_cues": "on the table; every piece is there",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "RFK Jr. listed as 2028 independent presidential candidate (early signal)",
      "source": "https://politics1.com/p2028.htm",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Ballotpedia, Politics1, or comparable election tracker formally lists at least 1 high-profile non-major-party candidate (RFK Jr., or other figure with >=5% national name ID) as a declared 2028 independent or third-party hopeful"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Independent/third-party 2028 candidate polls >=10% in head-to-head three-way matchup",
      "source": "https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2028/polls",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FiveThirtyEight / 270toWin / Race-to-the-WH polling average shows a named non-major-party 2028 candidate at >=10% in three-way generic matchup vs Dem/Rep nominee for 2 consecutive months"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "No Labels, Forward Party, Libertarians, or new party announces 2028 ballot strategy in >=30 states",
      "source": "https://eposimulation.fandom.com/wiki/Third-Party_Candidates_in_the_2028_U.S_Presidential_Election",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
 
... (truncated)