EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version

EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | there'll be a couple year very short period of time, in my opinion, 2 years or so... should be very short window where people get to fly these

there'll be a couple year very short period of time, in my opinion, 2 years or so... should be very short window where people get to fly these

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "FAA pace",
  "context": "2 years or so. Cuz in the Middle East, they're already doing the self-driving, self-flying version",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "there'll be a couple year very short period of time, in my opinion, 2 years or so... should be very short window where people get to fly these",
  "conv_cues": "in my opinion",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "~2 years",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby Superpilot logs >=7,000 autonomous flight hours in DoD Pacific exercise",
      "source": "https://www.jobyaviation.com/news/national-aam-strategy/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joby Aviation discloses >=5,000 autonomous flight hours via Superpilot system on Cessna 208B or comparable platform, in DoD/military operational testing context"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FAA selects 8 eVTOL pilot projects under Integration Pilot Program (IPP)",
      "source": "https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/faa-selects-eight-evtol-pilot-projects",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FAA/DOT formally selects >=5 eVTOL pilot projects across US states under Integration Pilot Program with named participants and operational corridors"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby/Archer commercial piloted passenger service launches in major US metro",
      "source": "https://www.flyingmag.com/joby-passenger-air-taxi-service-2026/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Joby OR Archer launches comme
... (truncated)