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240_035predictionEnergyAI-timing

Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035

Predictor: Meta · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
45.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2035-01-01 – 2035-11-30
Edges in / out
11 / 5
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035.

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035.

Predictor: Meta

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Meta is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.630

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 45.7% → blend 45.7% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 9 pending
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingVistra Perry/Davis-Besse 20-year PPA fully executed and Meta drawing 2,176 MW
    How: FERC filings, Vistra investor materials, or Meta sustainability report confirm 2,176 MW from Perry/Davis-Besse fully allocated to Meta under signed PPA
    Source: https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/meta-announces-landmark-agreements-for-new-nuclearconf 85%
  2. 2027-06-01 → 2031-12-31pendingBeaver Valley uprate completion delivering incremental capacity to Meta
    How: Vistra confirms Perry/Davis-Besse/Beaver Valley plant uprates complete and delivering additional MW capacity contracted to Meta
    Source: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/meta-nuclear-deal-oklo-vistra-terrapower-ai-data-centers/809215/conf 60%
  3. 2030-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingOklo first phase of 1.2 GW Ohio Meta campus comes online
    How: Oklo and Meta confirm first phase of southern Ohio nuclear campus comes online producing measurable power feeding Meta facilities
    Source: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/meta-nuclear-deal-oklo-vistra-terrapower-ai-data-centers/809215/conf 45%
  4. 2032-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingTerraPower Natrium reactor first 690 MW unit delivers power
    How: TerraPower confirms first Natrium sodium fast reactor unit comes online and delivers contracted 690 MW to Meta or grid
    Source: https://about.fb.com/news/2026/01/meta-nuclear-energy-projects-power-american-ai-leadership/conf 40%
  5. 2034-06-01 → 2036-06-30pendingCascade: Total 6.6 GW Meta nuclear portfolio fully online by 2035
    How: Meta sustainability report or independent verification confirms full 6.6 GW from Vistra+TerraPower+Oklo+Constellation portfolio is operational
    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/meta-signs-nuclear-energy-deals-to-power-prometheus-ai-supercluster.htmlconf 35%
  6. 2034-01-01 → 2036-12-31pendingTerraPower delivers 6 additional Natrium units (2.1 GW) to Meta by 2035 target
    How: TerraPower confirms 6+ Natrium units completed and delivering total 2.1 GW per Meta agreement targeting 2035
    Source: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-secures-up-to-66gw-of-nuclear-power-from-terrapower-oklo-and-vistra/conf 30%
  7. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  8. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.7%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 45.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.9%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 49.0% → 46.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.0%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z51.5%+2.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.515 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z49.5%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z51.5%-3.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.515 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5500.050-0.075
prereqSEM_005
Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distrSam Altman
72.3%0.5500.050-0.072
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.043
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5500.050-0.039
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.036

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq236_019
Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably sAndrew Yang
44.0%0.6000.050-0.141
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.034
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.024
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.022
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.012

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_100GW_2030Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030compute_scale
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq236_019Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerRobotics
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.603edgar_8kNano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)mentionspending2026-05-15
0.603edgar_8kNano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)mentionspending2026-05-29
0.596manifoldWhat is the green mop 2026 cutoff?mentionspending2026-04-27
0.556manifoldHow many members will the Green Party of England and Wales have at the start of 2029?mentionspending2026-05-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "6.6 GW",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035. They partnered with Terrap Power.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035.",
  "conv_cues": "secured",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2035,
  "timeframe": "2035",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vistra Perry/Davis-Besse 20-year PPA fully executed and Meta drawing 2,176 MW",
      "source": "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/meta-announces-landmark-agreements-for-new-nuclear",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FERC filings, Vistra investor materials, or Meta sustainability report confirm 2,176 MW from Perry/Davis-Besse fully allocated to Meta under signed PPA"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "S_GRID_50GW_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Beaver Valley uprate completion delivering incremental capacity to Meta",
      "source": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/meta-nuclear-deal-oklo-vistra-terrapower-ai-data-centers/809215/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2029-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Vistra confirms Perry/Davis-Besse/Beaver Valley plant uprates complete and delivering additional MW capacity contracted to Meta"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      
... (truncated)