Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035
Predictor: Meta · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035.
Verbatim quote
Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035.
Predictor: Meta
Evidence about this node from Meta is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingVistra Perry/Davis-Besse 20-year PPA fully executed and Meta drawing 2,176 MWHow: FERC filings, Vistra investor materials, or Meta sustainability report confirm 2,176 MW from Perry/Davis-Besse fully allocated to Meta under signed PPASource: https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/meta-announces-landmark-agreements-for-new-nuclearconf 85%
- 2027-06-01 → 2031-12-31pendingBeaver Valley uprate completion delivering incremental capacity to MetaHow: Vistra confirms Perry/Davis-Besse/Beaver Valley plant uprates complete and delivering additional MW capacity contracted to MetaSource: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/meta-nuclear-deal-oklo-vistra-terrapower-ai-data-centers/809215/conf 60%
- 2030-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingOklo first phase of 1.2 GW Ohio Meta campus comes onlineHow: Oklo and Meta confirm first phase of southern Ohio nuclear campus comes online producing measurable power feeding Meta facilitiesSource: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/meta-nuclear-deal-oklo-vistra-terrapower-ai-data-centers/809215/conf 45%
- 2032-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingTerraPower Natrium reactor first 690 MW unit delivers powerHow: TerraPower confirms first Natrium sodium fast reactor unit comes online and delivers contracted 690 MW to Meta or gridSource: https://about.fb.com/news/2026/01/meta-nuclear-energy-projects-power-american-ai-leadership/conf 40%
- 2034-06-01 → 2036-06-30pendingCascade: Total 6.6 GW Meta nuclear portfolio fully online by 2035How: Meta sustainability report or independent verification confirms full 6.6 GW from Vistra+TerraPower+Oklo+Constellation portfolio is operationalSource: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/meta-signs-nuclear-energy-deals-to-power-prometheus-ai-supercluster.htmlconf 35%
- 2034-01-01 → 2036-12-31pendingTerraPower delivers 6 additional Natrium units (2.1 GW) to Meta by 2035 targetHow: TerraPower confirms 6+ Natrium units completed and delivering total 2.1 GW per Meta agreement targeting 2035Source: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-secures-up-to-66gw-of-nuclear-power-from-terrapower-oklo-and-vistra/conf 30%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| prereq | SEM_005 Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distr — Sam Altman | 72.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.043 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably s — Andrew Yang | 44.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.141 |
| prereq | 239_009 People will be on Mars within 10 years — Elon Musk | 30.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| prereq | 232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep — Elon Musk | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.012 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (11)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 | Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 | Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030 | compute_scale | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 239_009 | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_047 | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Space | — |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.603 | edgar_8k | Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.603 | edgar_8k | Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.596 | manifold | What is the green mop 2026 cutoff? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.556 | manifold | How many members will the Green Party of England and Wales have at the start of 2029? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "6.6 GW",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Firm",
"context": "Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035. They partnered with Terrap Power.",
"to_year": 2035,
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They've secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035.",
"conv_cues": "secured",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2035,
"timeframe": "2035",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -13,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -12,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Vistra Perry/Davis-Besse 20-year PPA fully executed and Meta drawing 2,176 MW",
"source": "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/meta-announces-landmark-agreements-for-new-nuclear",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"expected_date": "2026-12-31",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "FERC filings, Vistra investor materials, or Meta sustainability report confirm 2,176 MW from Perry/Davis-Besse fully allocated to Meta under signed PPA"
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.7,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "S_GRID_50GW_2027",
"expected_date": "2027-12-31",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_005",
"expected_date": "2028-02-09",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Beaver Valley uprate completion delivering incremental capacity to Meta",
"source": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/meta-nuclear-deal-oklo-vistra-terrapower-ai-data-centers/809215/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_date": "2029-09-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2031-12-31",
"from": "2027-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Vistra confirms Perry/Davis-Besse/Beaver Valley plant uprates complete and delivering additional MW capacity contracted to Meta"
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
... (truncated)