Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer

Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | I think human plumbers are safe um for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer.

I think human plumbers are safe um for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "at least 10 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "can I persuade you to put a number to the not for some time? Is it like 10 years that that you think we get humanoid robot plumbers? 20 years what's the the precise time scale you envision? I think human plumbers are safe um for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "I think human plumbers are safe um for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer.",
  "conv_cues": "I think; at least; probably significantly longer",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "2036+",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bain / McKinsey / BCG report classifies skilled trades (plumbing/electrical/HVAC) as 'protected' through 2035",
      "source": "Bain humanoid deployment report + BLS Occupational Outlook methodology",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.bain.com/insights/humanoid-robots-from-demos-to-deployment-technology-report-2025/",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tier-1 consultancy or BLS Occupational Outlook publishes report explicitly forecasting <10% AI/robot displacement of plumbing occupations through 2035, with dexterity/unpredictability cited as primary barrier"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First commercial humanoid robot demonstrated performing supervised plumbing repair task",
      "source": "Bain 'unpredictable environment' barrier + late-2030s mainstream adoption forecast",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.automate.org/industry-insights/humanoid-robots-are-evolving",
      "expected_date": "2030-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2032-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Verified third-party demonstration (independent journalist
... (truncated)