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244_026predictionLabor/JobsAI-timing

Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
45.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | And we are kind of we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)"
And we are kind of we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 8 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingUber announces total platform earners crosses 12 million milestone
    How: Uber Q-earnings disclosure, Khosrowshahi interview, or annual report reports 12M+ unique drivers/couriers/AV-related earners on platform
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/10/1-growth-stock-turn-200000-into-1-million-by-2035/conf 70%
  2. 2026-04-01 → 2030-12-31pendingUber expands into new earner-category (delivery, robotaxi-fleet ownership, or labor matching) at scale
    How: Uber launches and scales (>500k earners) new vertical beyond rideshare/Uber Eats — e.g., last-mile delivery fleets, AV fleet management, blue-collar labor matching
    Source: https://fortune.com/2026/02/23/uber-ceo-dara-khosrowshahi-robotaxis-autonomous-vehicles-diary-of-a-ceo-podcast/conf 65%
  3. 2026-04-01 → 2030-12-31pendingKhosrowshahi or Uber IR reaffirms or revises 20M-by-2035 platform goal in earnings call or annual letter
    How: Public Uber communication restates 20M-by-2035 framing or provides revised targets
    Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/10/wall-street-sees-43-upside-in-uber-uber-despite-recent-growth-stock-selloff/conf 70%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2033-12-31pendingUber AV trip share exceeds 25% of total platform trips
    How: Uber discloses AV-fulfilled trips as >=25% of total trips on platform (Khosrowshahi expects majority eventually)
    Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-ceo-warns-biggest-factor-120112869.htmlconf 50%
  5. 2029-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingUber platform crosses 15M total earners
    How: Uber discloses 15M+ unique earners (drivers + couriers + AV partners + 'new categories' Khosrowshahi referenced)
    Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mehrshadjavid_ubers-ceo-isnt-sugarcoating-the-future-activity-7432894245356593152-M1P3conf 55%
  6. 2033-06-01 → 2035-06-30pendingCascade: Uber platform crosses 18M earners by year-end 2034 — leading indicator for 20M target
    How: Uber Q-earnings or IR communication reports 18M+ unique earners on platform, putting 20M-by-2035 within run-rate
    Source: https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/uber-ceo-Khosrowshahi-av-robotaxi-plans/811321/conf 45%
  7. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  8. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z45.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.7%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 48.3% → 46.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.3%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 50.4% → 48.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z50.4%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 53.9% → 50.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z53.9%-6.1pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 53.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6000.050-0.219
prereq232_048
Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; couAlex Wissner-Gross
37.5%0.6000.050-0.203
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.088
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.061
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6000.050-0.041

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq236_019
Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably sAndrew Yang
44.0%0.6000.050-0.142
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.034
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.025
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.022
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.013

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq232_048Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day.Space
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq236_019Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerRobotics
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (6)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.622manifoldHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?mentionspending2026-05-13
0.592manifoldWill GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?91%mentionspending2026-05-24
0.589manifoldHow many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?mentionspending2026-05-02
0.579manifoldHow many people will participate in my Manifest Airbnb room auction?mentionspending2026-05-04
0.568manifoldWill The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?32%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.554manifoldHow many members will the UK Conservative Party have at the start of 2029?mentionspending2026-05-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "20 million people on Uber platform by 2035 (vs 10M now)",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now. They may be doing different kinds of tasks, but there will be plenty of work to go around on our platform.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "And we are kind of we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now.",
  "conv_cues": "we've got; in 2035",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2035,
  "timeframe": "By 2035",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber announces total platform earners crosses 12 million milestone",
      "source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/10/1-growth-stock-turn-200000-into-1-million-by-2035/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber Q-earnings disclosure, Khosrowshahi interview, or annual report reports 12M+ unique drivers/couriers/AV-related earners on platform"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber expands into new earner-category (delivery, robotaxi-fleet ownership, or labor matching) at scale",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/23/uber-ceo-dara-khosrowshahi-robotaxis-autonomous-vehicles-diary-of-a-ceo-podcast/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2028-08-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber launches and scales (>500k earners) new vertical beyond rideshare/Uber Eats — e.g., last-mile delivery fleets, AV fleet management, blue-collar labor matching"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label"
... (truncated)