Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source
Prediction text
Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | And we are kind of we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now.
Verbatim quote
And we are kind of we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingUber announces total platform earners crosses 12 million milestoneHow: Uber Q-earnings disclosure, Khosrowshahi interview, or annual report reports 12M+ unique drivers/couriers/AV-related earners on platformSource: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/10/1-growth-stock-turn-200000-into-1-million-by-2035/conf 70%
- 2026-04-01 → 2030-12-31pendingUber expands into new earner-category (delivery, robotaxi-fleet ownership, or labor matching) at scaleHow: Uber launches and scales (>500k earners) new vertical beyond rideshare/Uber Eats — e.g., last-mile delivery fleets, AV fleet management, blue-collar labor matchingSource: https://fortune.com/2026/02/23/uber-ceo-dara-khosrowshahi-robotaxis-autonomous-vehicles-diary-of-a-ceo-podcast/conf 65%
- 2026-04-01 → 2030-12-31pendingKhosrowshahi or Uber IR reaffirms or revises 20M-by-2035 platform goal in earnings call or annual letterHow: Public Uber communication restates 20M-by-2035 framing or provides revised targetsSource: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/10/wall-street-sees-43-upside-in-uber-uber-despite-recent-growth-stock-selloff/conf 70%
- 2028-01-01 → 2033-12-31pendingUber AV trip share exceeds 25% of total platform tripsHow: Uber discloses AV-fulfilled trips as >=25% of total trips on platform (Khosrowshahi expects majority eventually)Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-ceo-warns-biggest-factor-120112869.htmlconf 50%
- 2029-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingUber platform crosses 15M total earnersHow: Uber discloses 15M+ unique earners (drivers + couriers + AV partners + 'new categories' Khosrowshahi referenced)Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mehrshadjavid_ubers-ceo-isnt-sugarcoating-the-future-activity-7432894245356593152-M1P3conf 55%
- 2033-06-01 → 2035-06-30pendingCascade: Uber platform crosses 18M earners by year-end 2034 — leading indicator for 20M targetHow: Uber Q-earnings or IR communication reports 18M+ unique earners on platform, putting 20M-by-2035 within run-rateSource: https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/uber-ceo-Khosrowshahi-av-robotaxi-plans/811321/conf 45%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.219 |
| prereq | 232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; cou — Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.5% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.203 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.088 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.061 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably s — Andrew Yang | 44.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.142 |
| prereq | 239_009 People will be on Mars within 10 years — Elon Musk | 30.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| prereq | 232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep — Elon Musk | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_048 | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. | Space | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 239_009 | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_047 | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Space | — |
Linked documents (6)
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.622 | manifold | How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.592 | manifold | Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027? | 91% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-24 |
| 0.589 | manifold | How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.579 | manifold | How many people will participate in my Manifest Airbnb room auction? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.568 | manifold | Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch? | 32% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
| 0.554 | manifold | How many members will the UK Conservative Party have at the start of 2029? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "20 million people on Uber platform by 2035 (vs 10M now)",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now. They may be doing different kinds of tasks, but there will be plenty of work to go around on our platform.",
"to_year": 2035,
"verbatim": "And we are kind of we are extending the kinds of jobs available so that by, you know, in 2035, we've got 20 million people on our platform versus the 10 million people on our platform now.",
"conv_cues": "we've got; in 2035",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2035,
"timeframe": "By 2035",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -12,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
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"source_id": "SEM_008",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber announces total platform earners crosses 12 million milestone",
"source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/10/1-growth-stock-turn-200000-into-1-million-by-2035/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2027-09-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Uber Q-earnings disclosure, Khosrowshahi interview, or annual report reports 12M+ unique drivers/couriers/AV-related earners on platform"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_005",
"expected_date": "2028-02-09",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber expands into new earner-category (delivery, robotaxi-fleet ownership, or labor matching) at scale",
"source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/23/uber-ceo-dara-khosrowshahi-robotaxis-autonomous-vehicles-diary-of-a-ceo-podcast/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_date": "2028-08-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2030-12-31",
"from": "2026-04-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Uber launches and scales (>500k earners) new vertical beyond rideshare/Uber Eats — e.g., last-mile delivery fleets, AV fleet management, blue-collar labor matching"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label"
... (truncated)