People will be on Mars within 10 years

People will be on Mars within 10 years | And we'll have people on Mars.

And we'll have people on Mars.

Beneficiaries (19)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "And we'll have people on Mars.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "And we'll have people on Mars.",
  "conv_cues": "we'll have",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "by 2036",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": "S_MARS_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Successful orbital propellant transfer (cryogenic refueling) demonstrated at scale",
      "source": "Musk: refueling is gating tech for crewed Mars mission",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX completes ship-to-ship cryogenic methane/LOX transfer in LEO with verified mass and handoff time, reported via FCC/FAA filings"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First uncrewed Starship landing on Mars during 2026/27 transfer window",
      "source": "Musk May 2025 Mars presentation — 50% odds 2026/27 window",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "source_url": "https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/aiaa-spacex/",
      "expected_date": "2028-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2027-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confirms (and independent tracking — JPL DSN, NASA — verifies) successful soft-landing of Starship vehicle on Martian surface during 2026/27 launch window"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "232_025",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "232_032",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "20+ Starship Mars missions launched in 2028/29 transfer window",
      "source": "Musk 2025 schedule: ~20 launches in 2028/29 window",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "source_url": "https://spacexstock.com/mars-transfer-windows-investors-guide/",
      "expected_date": "2029-05-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2028-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Aggregate FAA/Cape/Boca Chica launch logs confirm >=20 Starship vehicles on Mars trajectory during 2028/29 window"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "230_022",
      "expected_date": "2029-12-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Starship crewed Mars mission departs Earth (Musk-stated 2029-31 window)",
      "source": "Musk: 'human landings as soon as 2029, 203
... (truncated)