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233_012predictionAIAI-timing

AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood.

Predictor: Joe Liemandt · ep#233 "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
37.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | AI is going to impact adults very differently we're in Austin Ubers Whimos robo taxis right Not a good time to be an Uber driver, right? But AI is going to gives kids superpowers, >> right? It's going to transform their childhood. It's going to let them do things that our generation never even dreamed of.

Verbatim quote

From episode "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233"
AI is going to impact adults very differently we're in Austin Ubers Whimos robo taxis right Not a good time to be an Uber driver, right? But AI is going to gives kids superpowers, >> right? It's going to transform their childhood. It's going to let them do things that our generation never even dreamed of.

Predictor: Joe Liemandt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Joe Liemandt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2025-04-30hitPeer-reviewed RCT shows AI tutoring outperforms classroom learning
    How: Peer-reviewed randomized controlled trial in major journal (Nature, Science, top education journals) shows AI tutoring delivers significantly higher learning gains vs. in-class active learning
    Source: Nature Scientific Reports 2025 RCT: AI tutoring outperforms in-class active learning, students learn more in less time; Khanmigo 34% greater learning gains documentedconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — peer-reviewed RCT published 2025 confirms AI tutor outperforms classroom.
  2. 2025-12-31hitK-12 generative AI adoption reaches 75%+
    How: Independent survey (Microsoft, Pew, EdWeek, CDT) finds >75% of K-12 schools using generative AI tools in instruction or operations
    Source: Microsoft 2025 report — 78% of K-12 schools using AI tools (up from 23% in 2023); CDT Oct 2025 — 85% teachers, 86% students used AI in preceding school yearconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — already cleared 75% threshold in 2025.
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingAI education market exceeds $25B globally
    How: Industry tracker (HolonIQ, McKinsey, IDC) reports global AI-in-education market exceeds $25B annual spend, with K-12 share >40%
    Source: Engageli 2026: global AI education market $7.57B in 2025, projected $112B by 2034 — implies $25B crossover late 2020sconf 70%
  4. 2027-06-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst state mandates AI-tutor entitlement for K-12 students
    How: US state or G7 nation legislates universal-access guarantee to AI tutoring for K-12 students, funded through public budget or vendor partnership
    Source: India Budget 2025 ₹500cr Centre of Excellence for AI in education; California, Texas, Singapore early movers in policy debatesconf 40%
    Notes: Critical institutional milestone — moves from grassroots adoption to state-level entitlement.
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingMeasurable closing of education-attainment achievement gaps
    How: NAEP, PISA, or equivalent standardized longitudinal assessment shows >5pp narrowing of socioeconomic-attainment gap in any cohort exposed to AI-tutoring intervention >2 years
    Source: Khanmigo early data showing strong gains for underserved communities; 2026 PwC AI study on capability gap closureconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — direct measurement of 'transform childhood / superpowers' claim.
  6. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 37%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.5%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 38.5% → 37.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.5%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 38.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.0%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 42.0% → 40.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.0%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.4500.050-0.059
prereqSEM_005
Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distrSam Altman
72.3%0.4500.050-0.056
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.035
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.4500.050-0.030
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.028

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.084
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.074
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.070
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.065
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.053

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "McKenzie's best line is this is the best time in history to be a 5-year-old right AI is going to impact adults very differently we're in Austin Ubers Whimos robo taxis right Not a good time to be an Uber driver, right? But AI is going to gives kids superpowers, right? It's going to transform their childhood. It's going to let them do things that our generation never even dreamed of.",
  "to_year": 2040,
  "verbatim": "AI is going to impact adults very differently we're in Austin Ubers Whimos robo taxis right Not a good time to be an Uber driver, right? But AI is going to gives kids superpowers, >> right? It's going to transform their childhood. It's going to let them do things that our generation never even dreamed of.",
  "conv_cues": "is going to give; going to transform",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next generation",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Peer-reviewed RCT shows AI tutoring outperforms classroom learning",
      "notes": "HIT — peer-reviewed RCT published 2025 confirms AI tutor outperforms classroom.",
      "source": "Nature Scientific Reports 2025 RCT: AI tutoring outperforms in-class active learning, students learn more in less time; Khanmigo 34% greater learning gains documented",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-97652-6",
      "expected_date": "2025-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed randomized controlled trial in major journal (Nature, Science, top education journals) shows AI tutoring delivers significantly higher learning gains vs. in-class active learning"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "K-12 generative AI adoption reaches 75%+",
      "notes": "HIT — already cleared 75% threshold in 2025.",
      "source": "Microsoft 2025 report — 78% of K-12 schools using AI tools (up from 23% in 2023); CDT Oct 2025 — 85% teachers, 86% students used AI in preceding school year",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://edtechmagazine.com/k12/article/2026/03/ai-tools-support-personalized-learning-k-12-education",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent survey (Microsoft, Pew, EdWeek, CDT) finds >75% of K-12 schools using generative AI tools in instruction or operations"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235
... (truncated)