Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. | if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies, many of which are in the the greater South Korea orbit are increasing as well, not investment advice.
Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam
Verbatim quote
if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies, many of which are in the the greater South Korea orbit are increasing as well, not investment advice.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-23hitSK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%)How: SK Hynix reports Q1 2026 results showing >=70% operating margin and HBM-driven YoY revenue acceleration.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%Observed: Operating margin 71.8%; revenue 52.58T KRW
- 2026-04-30hitSamsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jumpHow: Samsung reports Q1 2026 results with operating profit ~57T KRW, memory-division dominant.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingSK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3How: Closing price of 000660.KS (SK Hynix) or 005930.KS (Samsung) prints a new ATH on at least one trading day during the window.Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSamsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyersHow: Samsung announces HBM4 design-in qualification with NVIDIA or another tier-1 hyperscaler customer beyond initial 2026 unnamed-customer shipments.Source: llm_enrichedconf 65%
- 2026-04-23hitHyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028How: SK Hynix or Samsung discloses on an earnings call that committed HBM supply is sold-out through calendar 2028.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission — Peter Diamandis | 56.2% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.117 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.027 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.024 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.004 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| prereq | 239_009 People will be on Mars within 10 years — Elon Musk | 30.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | 232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep — Elon Musk | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (14)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 242_057 | Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Space | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 239_009 | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_047 | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Space | — |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.667 | gdelt | samsung q1 earnings ai memory chip demand profit record.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.615 | gdelt | why alphabets stock is the standout gainer on big techs monster earnings day | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.605 | manifold | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026? | 63% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
| 0.529 | polymarket | Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery | 39% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": true,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "not investment advice",
"context": "if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies... are increasing as well, not investment advice.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies, many of which are in the the greater South Korea orbit are increasing as well, not investment advice.",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near-term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/sk-hynix-earnings-ai-memory-shortage-hbm-demand.html",
"expected_date": "2026-04-23",
"observed_date": "2026-04-23",
"observed_value": "Operating margin 71.8%; revenue 52.58T KRW",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix reports Q1 2026 results showing >=70% operating margin and HBM-driven YoY revenue acceleration."
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
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"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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"label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
"status": "hit",
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"source_id": "235_038",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30"
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"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Samsung reports Q1 2026 results with operating profit ~57T KRW, memory-division dominant."
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "248_047",
"expected_date": "2026-06-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_date": "2026-07-31",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Closing price of 000660.KS (SK Hynix) or 005930.KS (Samsung) prints a new ATH on at least one trading day during the window."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyers",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": null,
"con
... (truncated)