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248_047predictionMarkets/StocksAGI

Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
38.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
5 / 5
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. | if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies, many of which are in the the greater South Korea orbit are increasing as well, not investment advice.

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies, many of which are in the the greater South Korea orbit are increasing as well, not investment advice.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓
  1. 2026-04-23hitSK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%)
    How: SK Hynix reports Q1 2026 results showing >=70% operating margin and HBM-driven YoY revenue acceleration.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
    Observed: Operating margin 71.8%; revenue 52.58T KRW
  2. 2026-04-30hitSamsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jump
    How: Samsung reports Q1 2026 results with operating profit ~57T KRW, memory-division dominant.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingSK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3
    How: Closing price of 000660.KS (SK Hynix) or 005930.KS (Samsung) prints a new ATH on at least one trading day during the window.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSamsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyers
    How: Samsung announces HBM4 design-in qualification with NVIDIA or another tier-1 hyperscaler customer beyond initial 2026 unnamed-customer shipments.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 65%
  5. 2026-04-23hitHyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028
    How: SK Hynix or Samsung discloses on an earnings call that committed HBM supply is sold-out through calendar 2028.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  6. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.6%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 39.7% → 38.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z39.7%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 41.5% → 39.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z41.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 41.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionPeter Diamandis
56.2%0.4500.050-0.117
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.4500.050-0.043
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.4500.050-0.027
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.024
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.450+0.004

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.079
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.071
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.062
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.050
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.049

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq242_057Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionSpace
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.667gdeltsamsung q1 earnings ai memory chip demand profit record.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.615gdeltwhy alphabets stock is the standout gainer on big techs monster earnings daymentionspending2026-04-30
0.605manifoldWill Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?63%mentionspending2026-04-23
0.529polymarketZagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery39%mentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": true,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "not investment advice",
  "context": "if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies... are increasing as well, not investment advice.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "if anything memory usage is increasing, stock prices of memory companies, many of which are in the the greater South Korea orbit are increasing as well, not investment advice.",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/sk-hynix-earnings-ai-memory-shortage-hbm-demand.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_value": "Operating margin 71.8%; revenue 52.58T KRW",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix reports Q1 2026 results showing >=70% operating margin and HBM-driven YoY revenue acceleration."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "242_057",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Samsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jump",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/samsung-q1-earnings-ai-memory-chip-demand-profit-record.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Samsung reports Q1 2026 results with operating profit ~57T KRW, memory-division dominant."
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_047",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Closing price of 000660.KS (SK Hynix) or 005930.KS (Samsung) prints a new ATH on at least one trading day during the window."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyers",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "con
... (truncated)