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242_057predictionSpaceAI-timing

Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
56.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30
Edges in / out
8 / 25
Tickers exposed
38

Prediction text

Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st... if all goes well, April 1st, we're going to be going back to the moon. Not to land but to do basically an Apollo 8 style circumlunar orbit | Artemis III launch mid-2027

Key catalyst: Artemis III launch mid-2027

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"
Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st... if all goes well, April 1st, we're going to be going back to the moon. Not to land but to do basically an Apollo 8 style circumlunar orbit

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 56.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 56%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z56.2%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 58.7% → 56.2%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z58.7%-4.9pp
Network propagation: 63.6% → 58.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z63.6%-8.6pp
Network propagation: 72.2% → 63.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z72.2%-12.6pp
Network propagation: 84.8% → 72.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
resolution_terminal2026-04-30T19:17:54Z100.0%+15.2pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.848
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.15225999999999995,
  "inside_posterior": 0.84774,
  "validation_notes": "NASA reports Artemis II lifted off from Kennedy Space Center on April 1, 2026, so an April 2026 crewed lunar-flyby prediction should resolve as hit if the stored claim's criterion is launch/mission occurrence.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "conflict_merged_by": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.84774,
  "resolution_evidence": null,
  "preexisting_conflict_prob": 0.84774,
  "preexisting_conflict_delta": 0.26572,
  "preexisting_conflict_reason": "intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.848 blend=0.848 LLR=1.386 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true,
  "preexisting_conflict_metadata": {
    "trf": 0,
    "kappa": 0.8611,
    "base_rate": null,
    "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
    "total_llr": 1.6094379124341,
    "bayesian_v2": true,
    "prior_logit": 0.3310589959442232,
    "bayes_factor": "4.0:1 favoring",
    "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
    "inside_prior": 0.5820170245362053,
    "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
    "blend_applied": false,
    "contributions": [
      {
        "llr": 1.6094379124341,
        "kappa": 0.8611,
        "label": "NASA reports Artemis II lifted off from Kennedy Space Center on April 1, 2026, so an April 2026 crewed lunar-flyby predi",
        "adjusted_llr": 1.385886986397004
      }
    ],
    "inside_source": "history_v2",
    "inside_weight": 1,
    "outside_weight": 0,
    "posterior_prob": 0.8477350412143414,
    "llm_suggestions": [
      {
        "polarity": "corroborates",
        "status_change": "hit",
        "evidence_strength": "strong",
        "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.25
      }
    ],
    "posterior_logit": 1.716945982341227,
    "predictor_brier": 0.01932,
    "inside_posterior": 0.8477350412143414,
    "blended_posterior": 0.8477350412143414,
    "reference_class_id": null,
    "total_adjusted_llr": 1.385886986397004,
    "predictor_n_resolved": 13
  }
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.2%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.075
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6500.050-0.072
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.066
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.055
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.6500.050-0.048

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_036
World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by Eric Schmidt
69.7%0.7200.050-0.280
prereq232_025
Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI Elon Musk
46.0%0.5500.050-0.136
prereq232_032
Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truBen Horowitz
43.1%0.5000.050-0.135
prereq237_005
Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consuAlex Finn
42.9%0.5000.050-0.132
prereq245_018
Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillBen Lamm
42.9%0.5000.050-0.132

Ticker exposure

38 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBQCOMORCLMETAMRVLMSFTIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYGOOGL

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (25)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereqSEM_036World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).AI/Cognition
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereqSEM_037For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027).Labor/Jobs
prereqCMQ_008Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement.Labor/Jobs
prereq234_024Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basisLabor/Jobs
prereq239_015Tesla output per employee will become very very highLabor/Jobs
prereq239_016Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcountLabor/Jobs
prereq239_018Universal High Income will be implementedMacro/Economy
prereq239_019Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthMacro/Economy
prereq239_023AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyMacro/Economy
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereq232_025Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.Macro/Economy
prereq239_028Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possibleEnergy
prereq245_019US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impactMacro/Economy
prereq239_021Money will stop being relevant at some pointMacro/Economy
prereq248_034Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning.Markets/Stocks
prereq237_005Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.Markets/Stocks
prereq236_001Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyMacro/Economy
prereq238_060Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banksMacro/Economy
prereq232_032Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.Crypto
prereq245_018Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globallyMacro/Economy
prereq240_030Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of TaiwanGeopolitics
prereq248_047Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.Markets/Stocks
prereq232_059Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.Macro/Economy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-04-30[Space 2026-04] [242_057] Artemis III launch mid-2027 [235_016] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadencemissed

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-30hitintake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937NASA reports Artemis II lifted off from Kennedy Space Center on April 1, 2026, so an April 2026 crewed lunar-flyby prediction should resolve as hit if the stored claim's criterion is launch/mission occurrence.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.900codex_research_packNASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surfacecorroboratespending2026-03-01
0.900codex_research_packNASA - Artemis II Launch Day Updatescorroboratespending2026-04-01
0.900codex_research_packNASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contractscorroboratespending2026-03-01
0.751manifoldArtemis III launches before 2029?85%mentions2026-04-28
0.685manifoldBy when will two Starships launch within 24h?mentionspending2026-06-03
0.662manifoldGemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?88%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.653manifoldWhich Rocket Launches Next? IIImentionspending2026-04-30
0.652manifoldBy when will New Glenn next launch?mentionspending2026-05-29
0.648manifoldWhen will SpaceX first fly humans around the Moon?mentionspending2026-05-26
0.635gdeltnasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyagementionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "if all goes well",
  "context": "Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st... if all goes well, April 1st, we're going to be going back to the moon. Not to land but to do basically an Apollo 8 style circumlunar orbit",
  "conv_cues": "going to be launching",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "April 1, 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "242_057",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "236_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "237_005",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "232_025",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "232_032",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "232_059",
      "expected_date": "2031-06-14",
   
... (truncated)