Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source
Prediction text
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st... if all goes well, April 1st, we're going to be going back to the moon. Not to land but to do basically an Apollo 8 style circumlunar orbit | Artemis III launch mid-2027
Key catalyst: Artemis III launch mid-2027
Verbatim quote
Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st... if all goes well, April 1st, we're going to be going back to the moon. Not to land but to do basically an Apollo 8 style circumlunar orbit
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"validation_status": "hit",
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.066 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by — Eric Schmidt | 69.7% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.280 |
| prereq | 232_025 Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI — Elon Musk | 46.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.136 |
| prereq | 232_032 Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of tru — Ben Horowitz | 43.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.135 |
| prereq | 237_005 Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consu — Alex Finn | 42.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.132 |
| prereq | 245_018 Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trill — Ben Lamm | 42.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.132 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (25)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_037 | For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | CMQ_008 | Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_024 | Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_015 | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_016 | Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcount | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_018 | Universal High Income will be implemented | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_019 | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_023 | AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_025 | Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_028 | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Energy | — |
| prereq | 245_019 | US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impact | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_021 | Money will stop being relevant at some point | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_034 | Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_005 | Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_001 | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_060 | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_032 | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 245_018 | Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_030 | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 248_047 | Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_059 | Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. | Macro/Economy | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | [Space 2026-04] [242_057] Artemis III launch mid-2027 [235_016] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence | missed |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | hit | intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 | NASA reports Artemis II lifted off from Kennedy Space Center on April 1, 2026, so an April 2026 crewed lunar-flyby prediction should resolve as hit if the stored claim's criterion is launch/mission occurrence. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.900 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-03-01 |
| 0.900 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Artemis II Launch Day Updates | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-01 |
| 0.900 | codex_research_pack | NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-03-01 |
| 0.751 | manifold | Artemis III launches before 2029? | 85% | mentions | ✓ | 2026-04-28 |
| 0.685 | manifold | By when will two Starships launch within 24h? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.662 | manifold | Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? | 88% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.653 | manifold | Which Rocket Launches Next? III | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.652 | manifold | By when will New Glenn next launch? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.648 | manifold | When will SpaceX first fly humans around the Moon? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.635 | gdelt | nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "if all goes well",
"context": "Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "Artemis 2 vehicle. It's going to be launching on April 1st... if all goes well, April 1st, we're going to be going back to the moon. Not to land but to do basically an Apollo 8 style circumlunar orbit",
"conv_cues": "going to be launching",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
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"kind": "prereq",
"label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
"status": "hit",
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"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "235_038",
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"kind": "event",
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"kind": "cascade",
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"source_id": "232_032",
"expected_date": "2028-06-21",
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"expected_date": "2031-06-14",
... (truncated)