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234_024predictionLabor/JobsAGI

Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis

Predictor: Salim Ismail · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
43.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31
Edges in / out
6 / 5
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis | financial systems between AI and blockchain are self auditing on a real-time basis. And so where's the need for kind of a periodic stamp

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

Verbatim quote

From episode "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced"
financial systems between AI and blockchain are self auditing on a real-time basis. And so where's the need for kind of a periodic stamp

Predictor: Salim Ismail

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.643
Brier
0.0144
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 2 resolved
Hit rate
50.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Salim Ismail is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-08-02pendingEU AI Act audit-trail compliance deadline (Aug 2026) drives mandatory continuous-monitoring deployments
    How: EU AI Act high-risk system continuous-monitoring requirements take effect; >=10 publicly disclosed enterprise AI audit deployments referencing the deadline
    Source: EU AI Act technical audit guideconf 85%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst Big Four firm offers AI-driven continuous-audit / real-time assurance product for public companies
    How: Deloitte/PwC/EY/KPMG launches commercial continuous-assurance offering tied to client GL/blockchain feeds with documented PCAOB or AICPA recognition path; minimum 5 enterprise clients onboarded
    Source: SafeBooks 'AI and new regulations transforming financial auditing' analysisconf 65%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2029-06-30pendingStablecoin / tokenized-asset proof-of-reserves becomes regulated standard in major jurisdiction
    How: US (post-GENIUS Act), EU (MiCA), or Singapore regulator mandates daily or real-time on-chain proof-of-reserves attestation for >=80% of jurisdiction's tokenized-asset issuers
    Source: LedgerLens 2026 crypto audit predictionsconf 60%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingPCAOB or IAASB issues formal standard for AI-assisted continuous auditing of public-company financials
    How: PCAOB Auditing Standard or IAASB ISA released and effective covering AI-driven continuous audit procedures for SEC-registrant or equivalent issuers
    Source: Cascade from Big Four product launches + EU AI Act precedentconf 40%
  5. 2030-01-01 → 2036-12-31pendingFirst S&P 500 company replaces annual audit with PCAOB-recognized continuous-audit attestation
    How: Public 10-K/proxy disclosure shows S&P 500 issuer using continuous AI-blockchain audit (in lieu of or alongside traditional annual audit) with auditor's report referencing real-time attestation
    Source: End-state realization of self-auditing thesisconf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 44%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z43.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 44.8% → 43.7%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z44.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 46.3% → 44.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 46.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.5%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 50.7% → 48.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z50.7%-4.3pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 50.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionPeter Diamandis
56.2%0.5500.050-0.113
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS
ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff
60.0%0.5500.050-0.087
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.063
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.038
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.5500.050-0.021

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.044
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.041
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.034
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.023
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.022

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq242_057Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionSpace
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUSASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoffasi_recursive_self_improvement
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "The bigger problem is um you're going to end up with financial systems between AI and blockchain are self auditing on a real-time basis. And so where's the need for kind of a periodic stamp what these firms if when I talk to these types of firms an audit firm what they're really really selling at the bottom of it is actually trust.",
  "verbatim": "financial systems between AI and blockchain are self auditing on a real-time basis. And so where's the need for kind of a periodic stamp",
  "conv_cues": "going to end up",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "242_057",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EU AI Act audit-trail compliance deadline (Aug 2026) drives mandatory continuous-monitoring deployments",
      "source": "EU AI Act technical audit guide",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.raconteur.net/global-business/eu-ai-act-compliance-a-technical-audit-guide-for-the-2026-deadline",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "EU AI Act high-risk system continuous-monitoring requirements take effect; >=10 publicly disclosed enterprise AI audit deployments referencing the deadline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Big Four firm offers AI-driven continuous-audit / real-time assurance product for public companies",
      "source": "SafeBooks 'AI and new regulations transforming financial auditing' analysis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://safebooks.ai/resources/financial-audit/how-ai-and-new-regulations-are-transforming-financial-auditing/",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Deloitte/PwC/EY/KPMG launches commercial continuous-assurance offering tied to client GL/blockchain feeds with documented PCAOB or AICPA recognition path; minimum 5 enterprise clients onboarded"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stablecoin / tokenized-asset proof-of-reserves becomes regulated standard in major jurisdiction",
      "source": "LedgerLens 2026 crypto audit predictions",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://ledgerlens.io/7-crypto-audit-industry-predictions-for-2026",
      "expected_date": "2028-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "US (post-GENIUS Act), EU (MiCA), or Singapore regulator mandates daily or 
... (truncated)