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232_032predictionCryptoAGI

Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.

Predictor: Ben Horowitz · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
43.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | I I I would go further than that that I I think that there needs to be not just a ledger of money but probably a ledger of truth um for AI to really fulfill its potential on on a number of things. Uh and crypto is the logical answer for that.

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
I I I would go further than that that I I think that there needs to be not just a ledger of money but probably a ledger of truth um for AI to really fulfill its potential on on a number of things. Uh and crypto is the logical answer for that.

Predictor: Ben Horowitz

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Ben Horowitz is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-01-01hitCalifornia SB 942 (AI Transparency Act) takes effect requiring provenance metadata
    How: California law requiring cryptographic AI content disclosure becomes operational
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
  2. 2026-03-01hitProof launches Certify (cryptographic answer to AI-generated fraud) — first general-purpose ledger of truth product at scale
    How: Major commercial launch of cryptographic content/identity verification for AI fraud
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  3. 2026-08-01pendingC2PA Content Credentials standard adopted as machine-readable disclosure for AI content (EU AI Act Article 50 enforcement Aug 2026)
    How: EU AI Act Article 50 enforcement begins requiring cryptographic provenance on AI-generated content
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 88%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMajor frontier model (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) integrates blockchain provenance attestation as default output mode
    How: GPT/Claude/Gemini production output API includes verifiable on-chain provenance hashes by default
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCrypto market cap re-rating: utility tokens tied to AI provenance/agent payments outperform bitcoin in 2027
    How: Sector index of AI-utility tokens (e.g., LINK, FET, RNDR, AKT) outperforms BTC by >50% in trailing 12 months
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  6. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.1%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 44.3% → 43.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.3%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 46.2% → 44.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionPeter Diamandis
56.2%0.5000.050-0.135
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.500-0.066
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.5000.050-0.051
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5000.050-0.034
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.500+0.033

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.048
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.046
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.038
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.026
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.025

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq242_057Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionSpace
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.598manifoldWill a real Scientologist trade on this market?15%mentionspending2026-04-25

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "context": "I I I would go further than that that I I think that there needs to be not just a ledger of money but probably a ledger of truth um for AI to really fulfill its potential on on a number of things. Uh and crypto is the logical answer for that. So I I do feel like this is an underestimated phenomenon particularly now that the US has legalized stable coins.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "I I I would go further than that that I I think that there needs to be not just a ledger of money but probably a ledger of truth um for AI to really fulfill its potential on on a number of things. Uh and crypto is the logical answer for that.",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "California SB 942 (AI Transparency Act) takes effect requiring provenance metadata",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://thetraceabilityhub.com/digital-provenance-why-content-authentication-matters-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "California law requiring cryptographic AI content disclosure becomes operational"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Proof launches Certify (cryptographic answer to AI-generated fraud) — first general-purpose ledger of truth product at scale",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.proof.com/blog/proof-launches-certify-the-cryptographic-answer-to-ai-generated-fraud",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Major commercial launch of cryptographic content/identity verification for AI fraud"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "242_057",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "C2PA Content Credentials standard adopted as machine-readable disclosure for AI content (EU AI Act Article 50 enforcement Aug 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.88,
      "source_url": "https://thetraceabilityhub.com/digital-provenance-why-content-authentication-matters-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EU AI Act Article 50 enforcement begins requiring cryptographic provenance on AI-generated content"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": 
... (truncated)