Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.

Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. | if we found ourselves in a near future with universal basic equity where everyone just gets sovereign dividends everyone would be on on the capital side of the ledger and not on the labor side.

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

if we found ourselves in a near future with universal basic equity where everyone just gets sovereign dividends everyone would be on on the capital side of the ledger and not on the labor side.

Beneficiaries (14)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Conditional speculation",
  "context": "if we found ourselves in a near future with universal basic equity where everyone just gets sovereign dividends everyone would be on on the capital side of the ledger and not on the labor side. So I think a lot of these distinctions, is it 70 hours of work per week or is it 70 hours of enforced play or incentivized play? Is it labor or is it capital? I think these are pretty mushy, blurry distinctions in a post-industrial and arguably increasingly trans-s singular posts singular economy.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "if we found ourselves in a near future with universal basic equity where everyone just gets sovereign dividends everyone would be on on the capital side of the ledger and not on the labor side.",
  "conv_cues": "if we found ourselves",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "near future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "242_057",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sam Altman publicly walks back UBI as primary mechanism, advocates equity/wealth-fund alternatives",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.inc.com/leila-sheridan/sam-altman-spent-millions-on-universal-basic-income-now-hes-changing-his-mind/91338380",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Altman public statement (interview or essay) shifts position to American Equity Fund or sovereign-wealth-style proposal as primary AI redistribution model"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenResearch publishes 5-year longitudinal follow-up to $60M UBI experiment with policy recommendations",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/ubi-study-backed-by-openai-s-sam-altman-bolsters-support/",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenResearch peer-reviewed publication with 5y outcomes from original $1K/mo cohort"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major US state introduces AI sovereign wealth fund or AI-tax-funded equity-distribution legislation",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sam-altman-wants-universal-extreme-124300850.html",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-31",

... (truncated)