LUNR
Intuitive Machines · Nasdaq · USA
Cap tier
Mid
Approx cap
$4.0B
Bull scenarios
43
Adverse scenarios
0
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 43 public links lack move; 0 lack probability
Themes & clusters
From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C7LEO satellitesLunar FabsNuclear power for data centersradioisotope thermoelectric generators
Investment thesis
From SRC_B Company Master
Most-funded US lunar pure-play.
Bull scenarios (43)
Predictions where this ticker benefits
| Pred | Role | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246_001 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Peter Diamandis | 78.6% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 246_008 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Peter Diamandis | 62.4% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 231_037 | pure_play | Space | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 57.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_023 | pure_play | Space | SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. | Gwynne Shotwell | 57.7% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 248_004 | pure_play | Space | Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 57.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_004 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Peter Diamandis | 50.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_005 | pure_play | Space | Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) | Peter Diamandis | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_051 | pure_play | Space | Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. | Peter Diamandis | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_045 | pure_play | Energy | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 47.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 231_035 | pure_play | Space | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. | Peter Diamandis | 47.6% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 246_002 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Peter Diamandis | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_026 | pure_play | Auto/Transport | Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence | Peter Diamandis | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_013 | pure_play | Space | As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... | Jared Isaacman | 46.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 242_037 | pure_play | Space | China will land on the moon before end of 2030 | China (government) | 45.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_002 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... | Morgan Stanley | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_010 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Peter Diamandis | 42.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_013 | pure_play | Space | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_001 | pure_play | Space | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_015 | pure_play | Space | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Elon Musk | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_012 | pure_play | Space | SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. | Peter Diamandis | 40.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_014 | pure_play | Space | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_009 | pure_play | Space | Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... | Gwynne Shotwell | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 234_040 | pure_play | Real Estate | Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America | Elon Musk | 38.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_007 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value | Prediction markets | 37.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_045 | pure_play | Space | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_054 | pure_play | Space | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_010 | pure_play | Space | Mass driver on the moon within 10 years | Elon Musk | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_038 | pure_play | Space | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_007 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Peter Diamandis | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_046 | pure_play | Space | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. | Elon Musk | 32.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SEM_044 | pure_play | Space | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. | Peter Diamandis | 32.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_009 | pure_play | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_020 | pure_play | Geopolitics | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_016 | pure_play | Space | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 31.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_009 | pure_play | Space | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Elon Musk | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_012 | pure_play | Space | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_029 | pure_play | Space | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 30.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_047 | pure_play | Space | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Elon Musk | 30.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_008 | pure_play | Space | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Elon Musk | 28.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| IND_016 | pure_play | Space | By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... | Gwynne Shotwell | 21.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_049 | pure_play | Space | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 19.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_010 | pure_play | Space | Establishment of a self-sustaining city on Mars populated by 1 million people by the year 2050 — despite logistical delays and the lunar detour, Musk maintains this ultimate target. | Elon Musk | 17.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_011 | pure_play | Space | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. | Elon Musk | 11.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
Adverse scenarios (0)
Predictions where this ticker is displaced
| Pred | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No adverse scenarios | |||||||