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246_015predictionSpaceSpaceX

Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon).

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
41.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
5 / 5
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | another thing that Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars. | Nov 2026 planetary transfer window

Key catalyst: Nov 2026 planetary transfer window

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
another thing that Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars.

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: mars_uncrewed_landing_window

Linked via embedding similarity 0.564

Successful uncrewed payload delivery to Mars surface within named transfer window

Base rate
50.0%
9/18 historical
Inside weight
0.556
TRF=0.63
Outside weight
0.444
pulling toward base rate
inside 35.2% → blend 41.6% 6.4pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-02
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-02-09hitMusk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer window
    How: Elon Musk publicly announces (X/press conference/SpaceX statement) that Starship will not utilize the November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window, delaying Mars program by years
    Source: https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/spacex-scrubs-2026-starship-marsconf 90%
  2. 2026-02-21overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2026-04-13overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  4. 2026-06-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  5. 2026-05-01 → 2026-10-31pendingCumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship test
    How: SpaceX completes ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer of >=100 tons (vs 5-ton baseline demonstrated early 2025) per FAA filing, SpaceX live stream, or post-flight statement
    Source: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/05/future-starship-block-3-mars/conf 45%
  6. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)
    How: SpaceX flies and successfully demonstrates Block 3 Starship configuration (improved heat shield, increased payload, Raptor 3) in test flight, confirmed by SpaceX press release / FAA
    Source: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/05/future-starship-block-3-mars/conf 40%
  7. 2026-11-30pendingNovember 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launch
    How: Calendar passes Nov 30 2026 (transfer window deadline) without any Starship Mars-bound launch attempt; verified via SpaceX official mission log / FAA / NASA
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_programconf 90%
  8. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deployment
    How: NASA Artemis program updates / SpaceX statements confirm Starship HLS (Human Landing System) takes precedence over Mars-bound test flights through 2028
    Source: https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/aiaa-spacex/conf 70%
  9. 2028-12-01 → 2029-01-31pendingCascade: Next viable Mars transfer window (Dec 2028 - Jan 2029) becomes new SpaceX target
    How: Public SpaceX statement / Musk announcement confirms Dec 2028 - Jan 2029 transfer window as new Mars target, replacing 2026 attempt
    Source: https://spacexstock.com/mars-transfer-windows-investors-guide/conf 60%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z41.6%-6.2pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.352 blend=0.416 LLR=-0.521 κ=0.64 w_in=0.56 mars_uncrewed_landing_window
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6338685427014515,
  "kappa": 0.6429,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Elon Musk",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.08745277852128733,
  "bayes_factor": "1.7:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 55% inside / 44% outside (TRF=0.634, base_rate=0.500 from mars_uncrewed_landing_window)",
  "inside_prior": 0.47815072884282506,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6429,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2606735180027389,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-21",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6429,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2606735180027389,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-13",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5562920201089838,
  "outside_weight": 0.4437079798910162,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4161324697984015,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6087998145267651,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01,
  "inside_posterior": 0.35233302503808617,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4161324697984015,
  "reference_class_id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.5213470360054778,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 2
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z47.8%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 47.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z50.0%+2.2pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.500 w_in=0.53 mars_uncrewed_landing_window
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z47.8%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 47.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.500+0.048
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.500+0.030

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_035
SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for StarlPeter Diamandis
47.6%0.6500.050-0.171
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.127
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050-0.117
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.071
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050-0.000

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_MARS_2028Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)mars_uncrewed_landing
correlateS_MARS_2026Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowmars_uncrewed_landing
correlateS_MARS_2031PLUSMars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delaymars_uncrewed_landing
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31[Space 2026-12] [246_015] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence [IND_016] 2026 Mars launch window; Starship V3 propellant transfer demo [SPC_008] Updated milestone tracker; nextpending

Linked documents (6)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.690manifoldWhich Starship Variants will fly before 2032mentionspending2026-05-06
0.662manifoldBy when will two Starships launch within 24h?mentionspending2026-06-03
0.645manifoldWill a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?69%mentionspending2026-05-30
0.644manifoldWhen will Starship flight 14 happen?mentionspending2026-05-04
0.634manifoldWill a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?68%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.628manifoldWill Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?52%mentionspending2026-05-16

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "caveats": "Uncertain if crewed by Optimus or landing attempt",
  "context": "another thing that Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "verbatim": "another thing that Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars.",
  "conv_cues": "intends to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer window",
      "source": "https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/spacex-scrubs-2026-starship-mars",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-09",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-09",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Elon Musk publicly announces (X/press conference/SpaceX statement) that Starship will not utilize the November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window, delaying Mars program by years"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-21",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-13",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "246_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship test",
      "source": "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/05/future-starship-block-3-mars/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-10-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX completes ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer of >=100 tons (vs 5-ton baseline demonstrated early 2025) per FAA filing, SpaceX live stream, or post-flight statement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)",
      "source": "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/05/future-starship-block-3-mars/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX flies and successfully demonstrates Block 3 Starship configuration (improved heat shield, increased payload, Raptor 3) in test flight, confirmed by SpaceX press relea
... (truncated)