Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon).
Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | another thing that Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars. | Nov 2026 planetary transfer window
Key catalyst: Nov 2026 planetary transfer window
Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence
Verbatim quote
another thing that Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars.
Predictor: Elon Musk
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: mars_uncrewed_landing_window
Successful uncrewed payload delivery to Mars surface within named transfer window
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-09hitMusk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer windowHow: Elon Musk publicly announces (X/press conference/SpaceX statement) that Starship will not utilize the November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window, delaying Mars program by yearsSource: https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/spacex-scrubs-2026-starship-marsconf 90%
- 2026-02-21overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-04-13overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-06-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-10-31pendingCumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship testHow: SpaceX completes ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer of >=100 tons (vs 5-ton baseline demonstrated early 2025) per FAA filing, SpaceX live stream, or post-flight statementSource: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/05/future-starship-block-3-mars/conf 45%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)How: SpaceX flies and successfully demonstrates Block 3 Starship configuration (improved heat shield, increased payload, Raptor 3) in test flight, confirmed by SpaceX press release / FAASource: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/05/future-starship-block-3-mars/conf 40%
- 2026-11-30pendingNovember 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launchHow: Calendar passes Nov 30 2026 (transfer window deadline) without any Starship Mars-bound launch attempt; verified via SpaceX official mission log / FAA / NASASource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_programconf 90%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deploymentHow: NASA Artemis program updates / SpaceX statements confirm Starship HLS (Human Landing System) takes precedence over Mars-bound test flights through 2028Source: https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/aiaa-spacex/conf 70%
- 2028-12-01 → 2029-01-31pendingCascade: Next viable Mars transfer window (Dec 2028 - Jan 2029) becomes new SpaceX targetHow: Public SpaceX statement / Musk announcement confirms Dec 2028 - Jan 2029 transfer window as new Mars target, replacing 2026 attemptSource: https://spacexstock.com/mars-transfer-windows-investors-guide/conf 60%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.6338685427014515,
"kappa": 0.6429,
"base_rate": 0.5,
"predictor": "Elon Musk",
"total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.08745277852128733,
"bayes_factor": "1.7:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 55% inside / 44% outside (TRF=0.634, base_rate=0.500 from mars_uncrewed_landing_window)",
"inside_prior": 0.47815072884282506,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 2,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"kappa": 0.6429,
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.2606735180027389,
"expected_date": "2026-02-21",
"measurement_criterion": null
},
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"kappa": 0.6429,
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.2606735180027389,
"expected_date": "2026-04-13",
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}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.5562920201089838,
"outside_weight": 0.4437079798910162,
"posterior_prob": 0.4161324697984015,
"posterior_logit": -0.6087998145267651,
"predictor_brier": 0.01,
"inside_posterior": 0.35233302503808617,
"blended_posterior": 0.4161324697984015,
"reference_class_id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.5213470360054778,
"predictor_n_resolved": 2
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starl — Peter Diamandis | 47.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.171 |
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.127 |
| prereq | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early — Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.117 |
| prereq | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/S — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezv — Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.000 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (17)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_MARS_2028 | Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2026 | Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2031PLUS | Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_035 | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | [Space 2026-12] [246_015] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence [IND_016] 2026 Mars launch window; Starship V3 propellant transfer demo [SPC_008] Updated milestone tracker; next | pending |
Linked documents (6)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.690 | manifold | Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.662 | manifold | By when will two Starships launch within 24h? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.645 | manifold | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051? | 69% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
| 0.644 | manifold | When will Starship flight 14 happen? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.634 | manifold | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051? | 68% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
| 0.628 | manifold | Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals? | 52% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
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"to_year": 2026,
"cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"verbatim": "another thing that Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars.",
"conv_cues": "intends to",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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... (truncated)