Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.
Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings
Verbatim quote
Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-27hitNASA confirms Artemis IV as first crewed lunar landing replacing Artemis IIIHow: NASA Administrator publicly confirms Artemis IV is now the first crewed lunar landing of the programSource: ABC News / Wikipedia - Artemis program (NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman Feb 2026)conf 95%Notes: HIT - Artemis IV is now the first crewed surface mission. This re-anchors Diamandis prediction directly to Artemis IV.
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingNASA Artemis II crewed mission completes lunar flybyHow: NASA Artemis II crewed flyby mission successfully completed no surface landingSource: NASA Artemis program / Space.comconf 85%Notes: Mandatory prerequisite - Artemis II must succeed before Artemis IV.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstrationHow: SpaceX or Blue Origin successfully completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstration of HLS variant required for Artemis IVSource: NASA / SpaceX / Blue Origin pressconf 55%
- 2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingLunar Gateway PPE/HALO modules launched and operationalHow: NASA Lunar Gateway initial modules Power and Propulsion Element and HALO launched and on-orbit-checkedSource: NASA Artemis IV mission pageconf 50%
- 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingArtemis IV crewed launch occursHow: SLS rocket launches crewed Orion on Artemis IV mission targeting lunar south pole landingSource: NASA Artemis IV mission pageconf 40%Notes: Cascade - direct event resolution. Industry analysts widely expect slippage past 2028.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / — Alex Wissner-Gross | 10.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.250 |
| prereq | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / — Alex Wissner-Gross | 11.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.219 |
| prereq | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezv — Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.167 |
| killer | TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.156 |
| prereq | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will k — Peter Diamandis | 31.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.154 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.149 |
| prereq | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missio — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.087 |
| prereq | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/S — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.082 |
| prereq | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be b — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| prereq | 232_049 Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disa — Alex Wissner-Gross | 19.0% | 0.300 | 0.050 | -0.040 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (22)
Adverse (3)
Prerequisites (19)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_027 | SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_003 | SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_005 | V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_001 | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_028 | Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 246_008 | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_019 | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_002 | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_004 | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_007 | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_041 | Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit. | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_051 | Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. | Space | — |
| prereq | 237_026 | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_015 | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_037 | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. | AI | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2028 | Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2031PLUS | Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_020 | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_040 | Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_049 | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. | Space | — |
Expected milestones (2)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-12-31 | [Space 2028-12] [246_013] Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings [231_036] Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. [248_001] SpaceX IPO roads | pending |
| 2028-12-31 | NASA Artemis IV astronaut lunar surface return target | pending |
Linked documents (7)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-03-01 |
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-03-01 |
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Artemis II Launch Day Updates | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-01 |
| 0.704 | manifold | Artemis III launches before 2029? | 85% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
| 0.639 | manifold | Will NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves? | 18% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.572 | gdelt | nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.553 | polymarket | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner | 100% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2028,
"timeframe": "Early 2028",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "NASA confirms Artemis IV as first crewed lunar landing replacing Artemis III",
"notes": "HIT - Artemis IV is now the first crewed surface mission. This re-anchors Diamandis prediction directly to Artemis IV.",
"source": "ABC News / Wikipedia - Artemis program (NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman Feb 2026)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Technology/nasa-after-artemis-ii-crew-completes-historic-moon/story?id=132000198",
"expected_date": "2026-02-27",
"observed_date": "2026-02-27",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "NASA Administrator publicly confirms Artemis IV is now the first crewed lunar landing of the program"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "237_028",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "240_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "237_026",
"expected_date": "2026-06-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "246_001",
"expected_date": "2026-06-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "246_002",
"expected_date": "2026-08-09",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "NASA Artemis II crewed mission completes lunar flyby",
"notes": "Mandatory prerequisite - Artemis II must succeed before Artemis IV.",
"source": "NASA Artemis program / Space.com",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/artemis-3-and-beyond-whats-next-for-nasa-after-artemis-2-moon-success",
"expected_date": "2026-08-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-04-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "NASA Artemis II crewed flyby mission successfully completed no surface landing"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstration",
"source": "NASA / SpaceX / Blue Origin press",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source
... (truncated)