← Cockpit
246_013predictionSpaceorbital-AI

Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
42.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
19 / 5
Tickers exposed
30

Prediction text

Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 8 pending
  1. 2026-02-27hitNASA confirms Artemis IV as first crewed lunar landing replacing Artemis III
    How: NASA Administrator publicly confirms Artemis IV is now the first crewed lunar landing of the program
    Source: ABC News / Wikipedia - Artemis program (NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman Feb 2026)conf 95%
    Notes: HIT - Artemis IV is now the first crewed surface mission. This re-anchors Diamandis prediction directly to Artemis IV.
  2. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingNASA Artemis II crewed mission completes lunar flyby
    How: NASA Artemis II crewed flyby mission successfully completed no surface landing
    Source: NASA Artemis program / Space.comconf 85%
    Notes: Mandatory prerequisite - Artemis II must succeed before Artemis IV.
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstration
    How: SpaceX or Blue Origin successfully completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstration of HLS variant required for Artemis IV
    Source: NASA / SpaceX / Blue Origin pressconf 55%
  4. 2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingLunar Gateway PPE/HALO modules launched and operational
    How: NASA Lunar Gateway initial modules Power and Propulsion Element and HALO launched and on-orbit-checked
    Source: NASA Artemis IV mission pageconf 50%
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingArtemis IV crewed launch occurs
    How: SLS rocket launches crewed Orion on Artemis IV mission targeting lunar south pole landing
    Source: NASA Artemis IV mission pageconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade - direct event resolution. Industry analysts widely expect slippage past 2028.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z42.2%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 42.2%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z43.2%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 45.9% → 43.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.9%-5.4pp
Network propagation: 51.2% → 45.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.2%-10.9pp
Network propagation: 62.1% → 51.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z62.1%+14.7pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.621 blend=0.621 LLR=0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z47.5%-6.2pp
Network propagation: 53.6% → 47.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z53.6%-11.4pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 53.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_037
State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / Alex Wissner-Gross
10.2%0.6500.050-0.250
prereq248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO /Alex Wissner-Gross
11.9%0.6500.050-0.219
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050-0.167
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.650+0.156
prereq237_026
The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will kPeter Diamandis
31.2%0.6500.050-0.154

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.149
prereq246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missioAlex Wissner-Gross
31.7%0.5000.050-0.087
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.082
prereq235_040
Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be bAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.4500.050-0.052
prereq232_049
Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disaAlex Wissner-Gross
19.0%0.3000.050-0.040

Ticker exposure

30 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

PLBKSYTSEMLUNRSKYTMRCYNNEGSATRKLBASTSIRDMAMZNBABAESYIFNNYLHXLMTMCHPNOCSTMTDGTXN

Adverse (3)

DISHVSATSES

Prerequisites (19)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq240_027SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of monthsMarkets/Stocks
prereq248_003SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.Space
prereq248_005V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.Space
prereq246_001SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.Markets/Stocks
prereq237_028Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.Media/Ads
prereq246_008Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).Markets/Stocks
prereq248_019US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.Space
prereq246_002SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).Markets/Stocks
prereq246_004SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.Markets/Stocks
prereq246_007SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.Markets/Stocks
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq248_041Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit.Space
prereq232_051Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.Space
prereq237_026The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.AI
prereq246_015Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon).Space
prereq248_037State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.AI
correlateS_MARS_2028Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)mars_uncrewed_landing
correlateS_MARS_2031PLUSMars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delaymars_uncrewed_landing
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics
prereq235_040Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.Space
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Expected milestones (2)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-12-31[Space 2028-12] [246_013] Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings [231_036] Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. [248_001] SpaceX IPO roadspending
2028-12-31NASA Artemis IV astronaut lunar surface return targetpending

Linked documents (7)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.750codex_research_packNASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surfacecorroboratespending2026-03-01
0.750codex_research_packNASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contractscorroboratespending2026-03-01
0.750codex_research_packNASA - Artemis II Launch Day Updatescorroboratespending2026-04-01
0.704manifoldArtemis III launches before 2029?85%mentionspending2026-04-28
0.639manifoldWill NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves?18%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.572gdeltnasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyagementionspending2026-04-30
0.553polymarketLoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner100%mentionspending2026-04-29

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "Artemis 4 in early 2028. Uh it is a crude landing mission. Really important to the south pole of the moon.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "Early 2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NASA confirms Artemis IV as first crewed lunar landing replacing Artemis III",
      "notes": "HIT - Artemis IV is now the first crewed surface mission. This re-anchors Diamandis prediction directly to Artemis IV.",
      "source": "ABC News / Wikipedia - Artemis program (NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman Feb 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Technology/nasa-after-artemis-ii-crew-completes-historic-moon/story?id=132000198",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-27",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-27",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Administrator publicly confirms Artemis IV is now the first crewed lunar landing of the program"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "237_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "240_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "237_026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "246_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "246_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NASA Artemis II crewed mission completes lunar flyby",
      "notes": "Mandatory prerequisite - Artemis II must succeed before Artemis IV.",
      "source": "NASA Artemis program / Space.com",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/artemis-3-and-beyond-whats-next-for-nasa-after-artemis-2-moon-success",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Artemis II crewed flyby mission successfully completed no surface landing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstration",
      "source": "NASA / SpaceX / Blue Origin press",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source
... (truncated)