← Cockpit
246_012predictionSpaceorbital-AI

Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
30.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31
Edges in / out
17 / 7
Tickers exposed
30

Prediction text

Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit. This is not going to the moon. It's going to be focusing on testing rendevous and docking maneuvers uh with the human landing system HLS | RS-25 engine delivery July 2026

Key catalyst: RS-25 engine delivery July 2026

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit. This is not going to the moon. It's going to be focusing on testing rendevous and docking maneuvers uh with the human landing system HLS

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-102026-06-05
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 30.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 7 pending
  1. 2026-02-15hitArtemis 3 mission re-baselined to Earth-orbit HLS rendezvous/docking test
    How: NASA officially confirms Artemis III no longer attempts lunar landing and instead conducts LEO rendezvous/docking with SpaceX Starship HLS and/or Blue Origin Blue Moon
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - February 2026 mission profile revisionconf 97%
    Notes: HIT - exactly matches the prediction wording (LEO rendezvous/docking with HLS, not Moon landing).
  2. 2026-07-31pendingRS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integration
    How: NASA confirms shipment of all four RS-25 engines from Stennis Space Center to Kennedy Space Center for Artemis III core stage integration
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - RS-25 engines scheduled to ship no later than July 2026conf 85%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingArtemis III SLS core stage fully integrated in VAB
    How: Core stage (with RS-25s + ICPS) fully integrated and stacked in Vehicle Assembly Building
    Source: https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-iii/conf 70%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingStarship HLS or Blue Moon flight-ready demonstrator on orbit
    How: SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed orbital demo prior to Artemis III crewed rendezvous
    Source: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-artemis-2-moon-mission-to-april-2026-artemis-3-lunar-landing-to-mid-2027conf 55%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingArtemis 3 launches in 2027 target window
    How: Artemis III crewed mission successfully launches within 2027 calendar year per the late-2027 NASA target
    Source: https://www.primetimer.com/features/nasa-s-artemis-iii-would-launch-in-late-2027-as-the-mission-gets-delayedconf 45%
    Notes: Cascade - slip risk to 2028 is high; NASA already delayed to NET 2028 in January 2026 before re-targeting late 2027.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 31%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-05T22:16:02Z30.5%-14.1pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.305 blend=0.305 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.21669134347734365,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.44603814792555274,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3050858444617663,
  "posterior_logit": -0.8231951264672958,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3050858444617663,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3050858444617663,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z44.6%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 44.6%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.9%-5.2pp
Network propagation: 52.1% → 46.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z52.1%-10.1pp
Network propagation: 62.2% → 52.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z62.2%-16.9pp
Network propagation: 79.1% → 62.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z79.1%+30.5pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.791 blend=0.791 LLR=1.386 κ=0.86 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.6%-5.7pp
Network propagation: 54.3% → 48.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z54.3%-10.8pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 54.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.650+0.273
prereq248_005
V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink andVideo Narration (SpaceX)
79.2%0.6500.050+0.212
prereq248_003
SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and thePeter Diamandis
79.2%0.6500.050+0.212
prereq237_028
Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO DarPeter Diamandis
77.9%0.6500.050+0.208
prereq246_001
SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billioPeter Diamandis
78.6%0.6500.050+0.190

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030China (government)
45.7%0.5500.050-0.236
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.200
prereq242_051
Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a fewAlex Wissner-Gross
37.0%0.4500.050-0.183
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050-0.167
prereq246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missioAlex Wissner-Gross
31.7%0.5000.050-0.113

Ticker exposure

30 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

PLBKSYTSEMLUNRSKYTMRCYNNEGSATRKLBASTSIRDMAMZNBABAESYIFNNYLHXLMTMCHPNOCSTMTDGTXN

Adverse (3)

DISHVSATSES

Prerequisites (17)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq248_005V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.Space
prereq237_028Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.Media/Ads
prereq240_027SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of monthsMarkets/Stocks
prereq246_001SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.Markets/Stocks
prereq248_003SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.Space
prereq246_007SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.Markets/Stocks
prereq248_019US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.Space
prereq246_002SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).Markets/Stocks
prereq246_004SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.Markets/Stocks
prereq237_026The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.AI
prereq235_016SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).Space
prereq248_037State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.AI
prereq246_015Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon).Space
correlateS_MARS_2028Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)mars_uncrewed_landing
correlateS_MARS_2026Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowmars_uncrewed_landing
correlateS_MARS_2031PLUSMars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delaymars_uncrewed_landing
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (7)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq242_037China will land on the moon before end of 2030Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq242_051Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few yearsSpace
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Expected milestones (2)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-12-31[Space 2027-12] [246_012] Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings [248_041] Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DCpending
2027-12-31Artemis III HLS/EVA suit Earth-orbit test missionpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.900codex_research_packNASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surfacecorroboratespending2026-03-01
0.900codex_research_packNASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contractscorroboratespending2026-03-01
0.900codex_research_packNASA - Artemis II Launch Day Updatescorroboratespending2026-04-01
0.788manifoldArtemis III launches before 2029?85%mentions2026-04-28
0.662manifoldTitle:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?33%mentionspending2026-04-24
0.650manifoldWhich Rocket Launches Next? IIImentionspending2026-04-30
0.603polymarketNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?22%mentionspending2026-01-02
0.603polymarketNATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?6%mentionspending2026-01-13
0.568polymarketLoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner0%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.564polymarketLoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season100%mentionspending2026-04-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "forward-looking uh prediction here. Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit. This is not going to the moon. It's going to be focusing on testing rendevous and docking maneuvers uh with the human landing system HLS",
  "conv_cues": "forward-looking prediction",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Artemis 3 mission re-baselined to Earth-orbit HLS rendezvous/docking test",
      "notes": "HIT - exactly matches the prediction wording (LEO rendezvous/docking with HLS, not Moon landing).",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - February 2026 mission profile revision",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA officially confirms Artemis III no longer attempts lunar landing and instead conducts LEO rendezvous/docking with SpaceX Starship HLS and/or Blue Origin Blue Moon"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "237_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "240_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "235_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-05T22:16:02.777625+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "237_026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "246_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "RS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integration",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - RS-25 engines scheduled to ship no later than July 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA confirms shipment of all four RS-25 engines from Stennis Space Center to Kennedy Space Center for Artemis III core stage integration"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).",
      "status": "pending",
      "w
... (truncated)