Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit. This is not going to the moon. It's going to be focusing on testing rendevous and docking maneuvers uh with the human landing system HLS | RS-25 engine delivery July 2026
Key catalyst: RS-25 engine delivery July 2026
Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings
Verbatim quote
Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit. This is not going to the moon. It's going to be focusing on testing rendevous and docking maneuvers uh with the human landing system HLS
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-15hitArtemis 3 mission re-baselined to Earth-orbit HLS rendezvous/docking testHow: NASA officially confirms Artemis III no longer attempts lunar landing and instead conducts LEO rendezvous/docking with SpaceX Starship HLS and/or Blue Origin Blue MoonSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - February 2026 mission profile revisionconf 97%Notes: HIT - exactly matches the prediction wording (LEO rendezvous/docking with HLS, not Moon landing).
- 2026-07-31pendingRS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integrationHow: NASA confirms shipment of all four RS-25 engines from Stennis Space Center to Kennedy Space Center for Artemis III core stage integrationSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - RS-25 engines scheduled to ship no later than July 2026conf 85%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingArtemis III SLS core stage fully integrated in VABHow: Core stage (with RS-25s + ICPS) fully integrated and stacked in Vehicle Assembly BuildingSource: https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-iii/conf 70%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingStarship HLS or Blue Moon flight-ready demonstrator on orbitHow: SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed orbital demo prior to Artemis III crewed rendezvousSource: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-artemis-2-moon-mission-to-april-2026-artemis-3-lunar-landing-to-mid-2027conf 55%
- 2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingArtemis 3 launches in 2027 target windowHow: Artemis III crewed mission successfully launches within 2027 calendar year per the late-2027 NASA targetSource: https://www.primetimer.com/features/nasa-s-artemis-iii-would-launch-in-late-2027-as-the-mission-gets-delayedconf 45%Notes: Cascade - slip risk to 2028 is high; NASA already delayed to NET 2028 in January 2026 before re-targeting late 2027.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"contributions": [
{
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"kind": "prereq",
"kappa": 0.875,
"label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
"weight": 0.5,
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"source_url": null,
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}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
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"predictor_n_resolved": 15
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.273 |
| prereq | 248_005 V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and — Video Narration (SpaceX) | 79.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.212 |
| prereq | 248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and the — Peter Diamandis | 79.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.212 |
| prereq | 237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dar — Peter Diamandis | 77.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.208 |
| prereq | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billio — Peter Diamandis | 78.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.190 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 — China (government) | 45.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.236 |
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.200 |
| prereq | 242_051 Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few — Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.183 |
| prereq | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early — Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.167 |
| prereq | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missio — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.113 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (22)
Adverse (3)
Prerequisites (17)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_005 | V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. | Space | — |
| prereq | 237_028 | Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 240_027 | SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_001 | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_003 | SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_007 | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_019 | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_002 | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_004 | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_026 | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_016 | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_037 | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_015 | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Space | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2028 | Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2026 | Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2031PLUS | Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
Dependents (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_037 | China will land on the moon before end of 2030 | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_020 | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_051 | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_049 | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. | Space | — |
Expected milestones (2)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-12-31 | [Space 2027-12] [246_012] Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings [248_041] Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC | pending |
| 2027-12-31 | Artemis III HLS/EVA suit Earth-orbit test mission | pending |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "forward-looking uh prediction here. Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "Artemis 3 in 2027. It is a crude mission again uh to low earth orbit. This is not going to the moon. It's going to be focusing on testing rendevous and docking maneuvers uh with the human landing system HLS",
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{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Artemis 3 mission re-baselined to Earth-orbit HLS rendezvous/docking test",
"notes": "HIT - exactly matches the prediction wording (LEO rendezvous/docking with HLS, not Moon landing).",
"source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - February 2026 mission profile revision",
"status": "hit",
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"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
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"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III",
"expected_date": "2026-02-28",
"observed_date": "2026-02-15",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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"label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
"status": "overdue",
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "RS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integration",
"source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III - RS-25 engines scheduled to ship no later than July 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III",
"expected_date": "2026-07-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "NASA confirms shipment of all four RS-25 engines from Stennis Space Center to Kennedy Space Center for Artemis III core stage integration"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).",
"status": "pending",
"w
... (truncated)