China will land on the moon before end of 2030

China will land on the moon before end of 2030 | China has confirmed their intention to land on the moon by 2030

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

China has confirmed their intention to land on the moon by 2030

Beneficiaries (22)

Adverse (3)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "China has confirmed their intention to land on the moon by 2030",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "China has confirmed their intention to land on the moon by 2030",
  "conv_cues": "confirmed intention",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2030,
  "timeframe": "by 2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "237_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "248_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "240_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "246_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Long March 10 first uncrewed orbital flight test",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_March_10",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CASC press release confirming first orbital test flight of LM-10; second-stage propulsion already tested 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "246_012",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Lanyue lander integrated landing/takeoff test completed",
      "source": "https://english.news.cn/20251030/591a588b136b47c2b5dfd235f9250334/c.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CMSA confirms full integrated drop / takeoff test of Lanyue (beyond 2025 component verifications)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Robotic Mengzhou-Lanyue uncrewed lunar dress rehearsal",
      "source": "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3307624/chinas-moon-shot-2030-crewed-lunar-mission-tests-pace-space-agency-says",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2029-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2028-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CMSA conducts uncrewed Mengzhou + Lanyue dual-launch dress rehearsal: lunar orbit rendezvous, robotic descent and ascent, Earth return"
    },
 
... (truncated)