VSAT
Viasat · Nasdaq · USA
Cap tier
Small
Approx cap
$2.0B
Bull scenarios
0
Adverse scenarios
47
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 47 public links lack move; 0 lack probability
Themes & clusters
From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C7LEO satellitesPhased Array / Satellite AntennaSatellite Spectrum (25.225 MHz, ITU-authorized in 120 countries)
Investment thesis
From SRC_B Company Master
Post-Inmarsat integration.
Bull scenarios (0)
Predictions where this ticker benefits
| Pred | Role | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data | ||||||||
Adverse scenarios (47)
Predictions where this ticker is displaced
| Pred | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246_001 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Peter Diamandis | 78.6% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| SPC_016 | Space | AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... | Ben Lamm | 72.3% | unknown | unknown | LEO constellations + Starship cost-curve obsolete legacy satcom. |
| SPC_015 | Space | AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... | Andrej Karpathy | 72.3% | unknown | unknown | LEO constellations + Starship cost-curve obsolete legacy satcom. |
| SPC_003 | Markets/Stocks | The 'Space 60' framework — mapping 60 public companies spanning the full aerospace supply chain — will drive value capture well beyond prime contractors to encompass raw-material suppliers, component manufacturers, and satellite-service operators, fund... | Morgan Stanley | 65.1% | unknown | unknown | LEO constellations + Starship cost-curve obsolete legacy satcom. |
| 246_008 | Markets/Stocks | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Peter Diamandis | 62.4% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 231_037 | Space | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 57.8% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 248_004 | Space | Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 57.5% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| SPC_005 | Markets/Stocks | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $150M-$200M for 2026) to approximately $1 billion by 2027 — driven by direct-to-cell satellite technology commercialization. | Morgan Stanley | 55.7% | unknown | unknown | LEO constellations + Starship cost-curve obsolete legacy satcom. |
| 230_016 | Space | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| SEM_043 | Space/Compute | SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regulatory permission immediately as rivals investigate orbital compute. | Gwynne Shotwell | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 246_004 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Peter Diamandis | 50.1% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 232_051 | Space | Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. | Peter Diamandis | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 242_005 | Space | Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) | Peter Diamandis | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 232_045 | Energy | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 47.8% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 231_035 | Space | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. | Peter Diamandis | 47.6% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 246_002 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Peter Diamandis | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 242_026 | Auto/Transport | Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence | Peter Diamandis | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 242_037 | Space | China will land on the moon before end of 2030 | China (government) | 45.7% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 248_041 | Space | Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit. | Peter Diamandis | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 230_033 | AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.8% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 246_010 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Peter Diamandis | 42.7% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 246_013 | Space | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 248_001 | Space | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 246_015 | Space | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Elon Musk | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 246_014 | Space | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.1% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 234_040 | Real Estate | Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America | Elon Musk | 38.4% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 242_007 | Markets/Stocks | Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value | Prediction markets | 37.6% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 242_051 | Space | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.0% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 234_045 | Space | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.9% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 246_054 | Space | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 242_038 | Space | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 246_007 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Peter Diamandis | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 242_009 | Space | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 33.9% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 232_046 | Space | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. | Elon Musk | 32.5% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| SEM_044 | Space | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. | Peter Diamandis | 32.2% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 246_009 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.1% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 246_020 | Geopolitics | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 235_016 | Space | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 31.2% | unknown | unknown | Starlink LEO capacity + Starship cost curve destroys GEO satcom unit economics; legacy satellite operators face stranded capacity 2026-2030. |
| 237_026 | AI | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | Peter Diamandis | 31.2% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 231_032 | Space | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 246_012 | Space | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 234_029 | Space | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 30.0% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 235_040 | Space | Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 238_003 | Media/Ads | Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting | Peter Diamandis | 25.0% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 232_049 | Space | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 19.0% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 248_019 | Space | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 11.9% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |
| 248_037 | AI | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 10.2% | unknown | unknown | Orbital compute + Starlink backhaul marginalizes geostationary comms and legacy earth-observation providers. |