Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock

Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | My guess and my hope is no. Not at least as food stock, you know, maybe in sort of a Noah's Arct we'll bring them. But I I just have difficulty imagining a future where live animals are killed outside the Earth like on the moon or Mars for for food.

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

My guess and my hope is no. Not at least as food stock, you know, maybe in sort of a Noah's Arct we'll bring them. But I I just have difficulty imagining a future where live animals are killed outside the Earth like on the moon or Mars for for food.

Beneficiaries (22)

Adverse (3)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I asked myself the just on this topic, Peter, the question, are humans going to take cows to the moon or Mars? And my guess and my hope is no. Not at least as food stock, you know, maybe in sort of a Noah's Arct we'll bring them. But I I just have difficulty imagining a future where live animals are killed outside the Earth like on the moon or Mars for for food.",
  "verbatim": "My guess and my hope is no. Not at least as food stock, you know, maybe in sort of a Noah's Arct we'll bring them. But I I just have difficulty imagining a future where live animals are killed outside the Earth like on the moon or Mars for for food.",
  "conv_cues": "my guess and my hope",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Smithsonian + frontier research consensus: Mars colony food likely lab-grown meat / cell-cultured / plant-based, not livestock",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/what-will-humans-eat-mars-180973260/",
      "expected_date": "2024-11-01",
      "observed_date": "2024-11-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Mainstream science press (Smithsonian, Frontiers, Wikipedia SpaceX Mars program) document mainstream solution stack as algae/insect/lab-grown protein — no live cattle in baseline plans"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX 2026/27 Mars cargo window — uncrewed Starship Mars cargo attempt",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-04-30",
        "from": "2026-11-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX attempts at least one Starship cargo trans-Mars-injection burn in the 2026/27 launch window; manifest publicly disclosed and contains no livestock payloads"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "International space-law / planetary-protection guidance bans live-animal foodstock transit",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/communication/articles/10.3389/fcomm.2022.1007567/full",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-03-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "COSPAR / UN COPUOS / NASA Office of Planetary Protection publishes binding or de-facto policy that prohibits live-animal foodstock transit on planetary missions"

... (truncated)