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235_016predictionSpaceSpaceX

SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
31.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
2/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30
Edges in / out
6 / 10
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | We have three big IPOs coming up. SpaceX is uh, you know, anticipated maybe as early as next month, I heard.

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
We have three big IPOs coming up. SpaceX is uh, you know, anticipated maybe as early as next month, I heard.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.610

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
1.000
TRF=0.00
Outside weight
0.000
no pull
inside 31.2% → blend 31.2% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-31
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 31.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓
  1. 2026-04-07hitSpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026)
    How: SpaceX confidentially files Form S-1 with SEC; details disclosed via banker meeting
    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/spacex-lays-out-ipo-details-targets-early-june-roadshow-reuters.htmlconf 99%
    Notes: HIT (signal) — IPO paperwork filed in early April; CFO Bret Johnsen disclosed roadmap to bankers. Roadshow June 8 week, retail event June 11.
  2. 2026-04-07hitSpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raise
    How: Public reporting of SpaceX target valuation $1.5T-$2T and proceeds target >=$50B
    Source: https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/conf 85%
    Notes: HIT — would be largest capital raise in history (vs Aramco $29.4B). Retail-focused tranche by design.
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-15pendingSpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026
    How: Investor road show begins per disclosed schedule; 1,500-investor retail event held week of June 8
    Source: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261764312-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-musk-ai-valuation-retail-investors-tradingkeyconf 85%
    Notes: Closely tracks the prediction's June 2026 road show timing. June 8 week officially scheduled.
  4. 2026-06-18pendingSpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.
  5. 2026-07-01 → 2026-09-30pendingSpaceX prices and lists shares; first-day open vs offer price
    How: SpaceX prices IPO and begins trading; reference data: pricing date and first-day return
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/conf 65%
    Notes: Summer 2026 market debut targeted. Macro / AI capex sentiment is the main risk to actual pricing.
  6. 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingLargest IPO in history: SpaceX raises >$50B
    How: SpaceX raises >=$50B in IPO proceeds (vs current record Aramco $29.4B)
    Source: https://247wallst.com/market-news/2026/04/15/spacex-ipo-what-investors-need-to-know/conf 55%
    Notes: Cascade — record-breaking raise validates the historical-significance claim.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 31%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
milestone miss2026-05-31T22:09:40Z31.2%-14.2pp
45.5%(inside prior)31.2%(Bayes, κ=0.88)31.2%(blend w_in=1.00 × 50% ipo_trillion_plus)
1 milestone missed · 30d grace
Show missed milestones
  • LLR -0.693 · moderate · expected 2026-04-30
    [Space 2026-04] [242_057] Artemis III launch mid-2027 [235_016] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z45.5%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 45.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.5%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 46.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.5%-4.0pp
Network propagation: 52.6% → 48.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.6%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 52.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z55.0%+2.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.550 w_in=1.00 ipo_trillion_plus
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z52.6%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 52.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.550+0.198
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.550+0.178

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_003
SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and thePeter Diamandis
79.2%0.9200.050-0.416
prereq248_005
V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink andVideo Narration (SpaceX)
79.2%0.9200.050-0.416
prereq231_035
SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for StarlPeter Diamandis
47.6%0.6500.050-0.201
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.172
prereq248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO /Alex Wissner-Gross
11.9%0.6500.050+0.155

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2028First $1T+ IPO in 2028ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_MARS_2031PLUSMars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delaymars_uncrewed_landing
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (10)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq248_005V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.Space
prereq248_003SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.Space
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq248_019US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.Space
prereq246_007SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.Markets/Stocks
prereq237_026The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.AI
prereq238_003Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcastingMedia/Ads
prereq248_037State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-04-30[Space 2026-04] [242_057] Artemis III launch mid-2027 [235_016] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadencemissed

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.858manifoldWhen will SpaceX officially confirm an IPO?mentionspending2026-05-16
0.844polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?0%mentionspending2026-03-25
0.842polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?99%mentionspending2026-01-23
0.841polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?99%mentionspending2026-01-23
0.840polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?72%mentionspending2026-03-25
0.838polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?99%mentionspending2026-04-13
0.824manifoldWill SpaceX's IPO (ticker SPCX) price on or before June 11, 2026?62%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.790manifoldSpaceX closing market cap on IPO day?mentionspending2026-05-16
0.770polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?6%mentionspending2026-02-03
0.763gdeltprediction spacex ipo reach 1 125000963.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we have three big IPOs coming up. SpaceX is uh, you know, anticipated maybe as early as next month, I heard. That's right. And then we'll have Anthropic and then we'll have Open AI.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "We have three big IPOs coming up. SpaceX is uh, you know, anticipated maybe as early as next month, I heard.",
  "conv_cues": "maybe; I heard",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "April 2026",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026)",
      "notes": "HIT (signal) — IPO paperwork filed in early April; CFO Bret Johnsen disclosed roadmap to bankers. Roadshow June 8 week, retail event June 11.",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/spacex-lays-out-ipo-details-targets-early-june-roadshow-reuters.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/spacex-lays-out-ipo-details-targets-early-june-roadshow-reuters.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-07",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-07",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confidentially files Form S-1 with SEC; details disclosed via banker meeting"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raise",
      "notes": "HIT — would be largest capital raise in history (vs Aramco $29.4B). Retail-focused tranche by design.",
      "source": "https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-07",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-07",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public reporting of SpaceX target valuation $1.5T-$2T and proceeds target >=$50B"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "235_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026",
      "notes": "Closely tracks the prediction's June 2026 road show timing. June 8 week officially scheduled.",
      "source": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261764312-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-musk-ai-valuation-retail-investors-tradingkey",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261764312-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-musk-ai-valuation-retail-investors-tradingkey",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-08",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-15",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Investor road show begins per disclosed schedule; 1,500-investor retail event held week of June 8"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "246_007",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "237_026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
  
... (truncated)