The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source
Prediction text
The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity.
Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings
Verbatim quote
this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-23hitGPT-5.5 release ships at OpenAIHow: OpenAI ships GPT-5.5 to consumers and API on or before April 23, 2026Source: OpenAI — Introducing GPT-5.5 (April 23, 2026)conf 99%Notes: HIT — major frontier release in target window confirms 'cadence picking up' framing.
- 2026-04-23hitGemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 monthsHow: Three frontier model releases (Gemini 3 Nov 2025, Claude Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5 Apr 2026) cluster within 6-month window — direct cadence evidenceSource: Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 vs Claude benchmarks April 2026conf 99%Notes: HIT.
- 2026-05-15 → 2026-07-15pendingSpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026How: SpaceX/xAI combined entity initiates IPO road show with target listing in summer 2026Source: TechFundingNews — SpaceX weighs June listing at $1.75T after xAI mergerconf 65%
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingMoonshots podcast publishes >2 episodes per week through Q3 2026How: Episode count in Moonshots feed during target window matches or exceeds 2x prior cadence baseline (measured monthly)Source: Peter Diamandis — Moonshots Mondays / Friday Show cadenceconf 85%Notes: Direct quantitative test of the prediction's 'cadence' claim.
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingPublic sentiment / media usage of 'singularity' language spikes in 2026How: Google Trends or major media corpus shows measurable spike in 'singularity' / 'recursive self-improvement' search and mention volumeSource: Anticipated based on current AI news cycleconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.222 |
| prereq | 248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and the — Peter Diamandis | 79.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.166 |
| prereq | 248_005 V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and — Video Narration (SpaceX) | 79.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.166 |
| prereq | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (A — Peter Diamandis | 31.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. — Peter Diamandis | 35.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.181 |
| prereq | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early — Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.154 |
| prereq | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missio — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.103 |
| prereq | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/S — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.099 |
| prereq | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezv — Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (20)
Adverse (3)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_005 | V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_003 | SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_007 | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_016 | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Space | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_FAST_2027 | AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 | AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS | AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_020 | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Geopolitics | — |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.583 | arxiv | Modular flow of Celestial Conformal Field Theory | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.561 | manifold | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act? | 44% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.554 | manifold | Will Manifold beat me at FTW? | 87% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
| 0.527 | arxiv | Celestial dual of conformal gravity MHV amplitudes: an OPE analysis | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
Raw metadata
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"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity. [laughter] >> Amen.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity.",
"conv_cues": "picking up",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "ongoing",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "GPT-5.5 release ships at OpenAI",
"notes": "HIT — major frontier release in target window confirms 'cadence picking up' framing.",
"source": "OpenAI — Introducing GPT-5.5 (April 23, 2026)",
"status": "hit",
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"research_origin": "deep_research",
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},
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"notes": "HIT.",
"source": "Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 vs Claude benchmarks April 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
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"source_url": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/gpt-5-5-review-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-04-23",
"observed_date": "2026-04-23",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
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"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "SpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026",
"source": "TechFundingNews — SpaceX weighs June listing at $1.75T after xAI merger",
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"expected_date": "2026-06-14",
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{
"kind": "event",
"label": "The
... (truncated)