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237_026predictionAIorbital-AI

The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
31.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
28

Prediction text

The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity.

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer"
this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-06-05
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 31.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-04-23hitGPT-5.5 release ships at OpenAI
    How: OpenAI ships GPT-5.5 to consumers and API on or before April 23, 2026
    Source: OpenAI — Introducing GPT-5.5 (April 23, 2026)conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — major frontier release in target window confirms 'cadence picking up' framing.
  2. 2026-04-23hitGemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 months
    How: Three frontier model releases (Gemini 3 Nov 2025, Claude Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5 Apr 2026) cluster within 6-month window — direct cadence evidence
    Source: Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 vs Claude benchmarks April 2026conf 99%
    Notes: HIT.
  3. 2026-05-15 → 2026-07-15pendingSpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026
    How: SpaceX/xAI combined entity initiates IPO road show with target listing in summer 2026
    Source: TechFundingNews — SpaceX weighs June listing at $1.75T after xAI mergerconf 65%
  4. 2026-06-18pendingSpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.
  5. 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingMoonshots podcast publishes >2 episodes per week through Q3 2026
    How: Episode count in Moonshots feed during target window matches or exceeds 2x prior cadence baseline (measured monthly)
    Source: Peter Diamandis — Moonshots Mondays / Friday Show cadenceconf 85%
    Notes: Direct quantitative test of the prediction's 'cadence' claim.
  6. 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingPublic sentiment / media usage of 'singularity' language spikes in 2026
    How: Google Trends or major media corpus shows measurable spike in 'singularity' / 'recursive self-improvement' search and mention volume
    Source: Anticipated based on current AI news cycleconf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 31%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-05T22:16:02Z31.2%-14.2pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.312 blend=0.312 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.8300755197856801,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.1823001252747615,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4545507681504306,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.41894713615002394,
  "outside_weight": 0.5810528638499761,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3124255511877741,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7888039082647136,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3124255511877741,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3124255511877741,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.5%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 45.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.9%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 46.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 53.3% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z53.3%-6.7pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 53.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.600+0.222
prereq248_003
SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and thePeter Diamandis
79.2%0.6000.050+0.166
prereq248_005
V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink andVideo Narration (SpaceX)
79.2%0.6000.050+0.166
prereq235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (APeter Diamandis
31.2%0.6000.050-0.057
prereq246_007
SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.Peter Diamandis
35.1%0.6000.050-0.029

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.181
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050-0.154
prereq246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missioAlex Wissner-Gross
31.7%0.5000.050-0.103
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.099
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050-0.037

Ticker exposure

28 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (20)

ASTSIRDMPLBKSYTSEMSKYTMRCYGSATRKLBAMZNBABAESYIFNNYLHXLMTMCHPNOCSTMTDGTXN

Adverse (3)

DISHVSATSES

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq248_005V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.Space
prereq248_003SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.Space
prereq246_007SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_016SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).Space
correlateS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.583arxivModular flow of Celestial Conformal Field Theorymentionspending2026-05-05
0.561manifoldWill Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?44%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.554manifoldWill Manifold beat me at FTW?87%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.527arxivCelestial dual of conformal gravity MHV amplitudes: an OPE analysismentionspending2026-05-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity. [laughter] >> Amen.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "this this cadence is picking up, isn't it? Yes, it is. >> We need to ever be this side of the singularity.",
  "conv_cues": "picking up",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 release ships at OpenAI",
      "notes": "HIT — major frontier release in target window confirms 'cadence picking up' framing.",
      "source": "OpenAI — Introducing GPT-5.5 (April 23, 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI ships GPT-5.5 to consumers and API on or before April 23, 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Gemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 months",
      "notes": "HIT.",
      "source": "Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 vs Claude benchmarks April 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/gpt-5-5-review-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Three frontier model releases (Gemini 3 Nov 2025, Claude Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5 Apr 2026) cluster within 6-month window — direct cadence evidence"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "248_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "248_005",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "235_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-05T22:16:02.777625+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "SpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026",
      "source": "TechFundingNews — SpaceX weighs June listing at $1.75T after xAI merger",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://techfundingnews.com/spacex-ipo-march-filing-1-75-trillion-valuation/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-07-15",
        "from": "2026-05-15"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX/xAI combined entity initiates IPO road show with target listing in summer 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "246_007",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "The
... (truncated)