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248_005predictionSpaceSpaceX

V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.

Predictor: Video Narration (SpaceX) · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
79.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
3 / 7
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. | Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

V3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published.

Predictor: Video Narration (SpaceX)

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Video Narration (SpaceX) is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 79.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 79%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z79.2%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 80.4% → 79.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z80.4%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 82.5% → 80.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z82.5%-3.2pp
Network propagation: 85.7% → 82.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z85.7%-6.3pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 85.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+17.5pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.825
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.17508999999999997,
  "inside_posterior": 0.82491,
  "validation_notes": "V3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.82491,
  "resolution_evidence": "V3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (APeter Diamandis
31.2%0.9200.050-0.416
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.920+0.059
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.920+0.024

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO /Alex Wissner-Gross
11.9%0.6500.050+0.398
prereq248_037
State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / Alex Wissner-Gross
10.2%0.5000.050+0.298
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050+0.212
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050+0.181
prereq237_026
The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will kPeter Diamandis
31.2%0.6000.050+0.166

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_016SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).Space
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (7)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq248_019US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.Space
prereq237_026The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.AI
prereq248_037State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.AI

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importV3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published.

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.556gdeltarticle 92de82b6 3cdc 5e65 80c8 5bf5d34917e4.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 TB/s downlink, 200 Gbps uplink per satellite",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "SpaceX is preparing to launch its third generation Starlink satellites on Starship... Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "upcoming V3 deployment",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_005",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "248_037",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "237_026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "246_012",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "231_035",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "246_013",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "230_016",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "SpaceX",
  "attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
  "episode_num": 248,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.992911+00:00",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-18",
  "parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
  "domain_bucket": "Space",
  "episode_title": "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "248",
  "consensus_size": 3,
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 2,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C7"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2026-06",
  "watch_events_raw": "SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence",
  "cluster_avg_grade": 4.67,
  "months_from_today": 2,
  "repeat_cluster_id": "C024",
  "active_start_month": "2026-06",
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "NR",
  "track_record