V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.
Predictor: Video Narration (SpaceX) · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. | Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.
Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence
Verbatim quote
Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.
Resolution evidence
V3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published.
Predictor: Video Narration (SpaceX)
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Video Narration (SpaceX) is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.17508999999999997,
"inside_posterior": 0.82491,
"validation_notes": "V3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.82491,
"resolution_evidence": "V3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / — Alex Wissner-Gross | 11.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.398 |
| prereq | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / — Alex Wissner-Gross | 10.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.298 |
| prereq | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezv — Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.212 |
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.181 |
| prereq | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will k — Peter Diamandis | 31.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.166 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (17)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (3)
Dependents (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_035 | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_019 | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. | Space | — |
| prereq | 237_026 | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_037 | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. | AI | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | V3 downlink 1 TB/s and uplink 200 Gbps/sat specs are SpaceX published. |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.556 | gdelt | article 92de82b6 3cdc 5e65 80c8 5bf5d34917e4.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
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"qty": "1 TB/s downlink, 200 Gbps uplink per satellite",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Firm",
"context": "SpaceX is preparing to launch its third generation Starlink satellites on Starship... Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.",
"to_year": 2026,
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "Each one is capable of delivering over 1 TB per second of down link capacity and more than 200 Gbits per second of uplink capacity.",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
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"observed_date": null
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"expected_date": "2030-06-16",
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}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "SpaceX",
"attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
"episode_num": 248,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.992911+00:00",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-04-18",
"parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
"domain_bucket": "Space",
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"ps_cluster_tags": [
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"active_end_month": "2026-06",
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"cluster_avg_grade": 4.67,
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"track_record