← Cockpit
248_019predictionSpaceorbital-AI

US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
11.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
35

Prediction text

US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. | if the the regulatory regime enables us to to launch our SSO Dyson form, this could perversely put the US in the lead as it seems to be doing already in in terms of moving our AI compute out to to low Earth orbit and SSO and maybe eventually uh sun centered orbit | First commercial orbital data-center launch

Key catalyst: First commercial orbital data-center launch

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
if the the regulatory regime enables us to to launch our SSO Dyson form, this could perversely put the US in the lead as it seems to be doing already in in terms of moving our AI compute out to to low Earth orbit and SSO and maybe eventually uh sun centered orbit

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

US DC moratoriums (NY, California) + orbital DC launch both real. Alex's 'push compute to orbit' thesis tracking.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: regulatory_freeze_window

Linked via embedding similarity 0.658

Major-country regulatory pause/moratorium on AI capability research lasting >6 months

Base rate
5.0%
0/4 historical
Inside weight
0.419
TRF=0.83
Outside weight
0.581
pulling toward base rate
inside 33.4% → blend 11.9% -21.5pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

9 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-06-05
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 11.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30hitSpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellites
    How: SpaceX submits FCC application for orbital data-center constellation at 500-2000 km, sun-synchronous-friendly.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUS state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permitting
    How: A US state legislature or PUC enacts a moratorium or hard cap on new data-center permits citing power, water, or grid concerns.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellation
    How: FCC issues an experimental or interim authorization to SpaceX or Starcloud for an orbital compute payload >=500 kg or >=10 kW per node.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst commercial orbital data-center customer contract announced
    How: Public announcement of a paying enterprise customer contract for orbital AI compute (e.g., AWS, Microsoft, NVIDIA, US DoD).
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellations
    How: Aggregate published power figures across Starcloud + SpaceX + Axiom + Google Suncatcher exceed 1 MW of operational compute power on orbit.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 12%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-05T22:16:02Z11.9%-35.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.334 blend=0.119 LLR=-0.585 κ=0.84 w_in=0.42 regulatory_freeze_window
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.8300755197856801,
  "kappa": 0.8438,
  "base_rate": 0.05,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.1042300795190434,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 41% inside / 58% outside (TRF=0.830, base_rate=0.050 from regulatory_freeze_window)",
  "inside_prior": 0.47396604506459106,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.8438,
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.5848775909564818,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.41894713615002394,
  "outside_weight": 0.5810528638499761,
  "posterior_prob": 0.11924761597126643,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6891076704755252,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03413,
  "inside_posterior": 0.33423160578294503,
  "blended_posterior": 0.11924761597126643,
  "reference_class_id": "regulatory_freeze_window",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.5848775909564818,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 11
}
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z47.4%+1.3pp
Network propagation: 46.1% → 47.4%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.1%+2.6pp
Network propagation: 43.5% → 46.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.5%+5.5pp
Network propagation: 37.9% → 43.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z37.9%+10.2pp
Network propagation: 27.7% → 37.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z27.7%+14.4pp
Network propagation: 13.3% → 27.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z13.3%-14.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.133 w_in=0.30 regulatory_freeze_window
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z27.6%+14.3pp
Network propagation: 13.3% → 27.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z13.3%-51.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.133 w_in=0.30 regulatory_freeze_window

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.650+0.459
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.650+0.459
prereq248_005
V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink andVideo Narration (SpaceX)
79.2%0.6500.050+0.398
prereq248_003
SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and thePeter Diamandis
79.2%0.6500.050+0.398
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.650+0.321

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.276
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050-0.219
prereq246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missioAlex Wissner-Gross
31.7%0.5000.050-0.152
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.148
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050-0.103

Ticker exposure

35 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

MRCYGSATIRDMASTSBKSYTSEMCRWVSKYTRKLBPLNBISAMZNBABAESYIFNNYLHXLMTMCHPNOCSTMTDGTXN

Adverse (3)

DISHSESVSAT

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq248_005V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.Space
prereq248_003SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.Space
prereq246_007SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_016SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).Space
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.750codex_research_packNVIDIA - Launches Space Computing, Rocketing AI Into Orbitcorroboratespending2026-03-16
0.714manifoldBy the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space?4%mentionspending2026-05-03
0.663manifoldTitle:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?33%mentionspending2026-04-24
0.635polymarketTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?44%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.606manifoldWill Manifold change share quest criteria in June?mentionspending2026-06-03
0.596manifoldWill Deno Deploy acknowledge the incidents of 13th of May 2026 on their status page?10%mentionspending2026-05-13
0.594polymarketTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?35%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.593manifoldWhat will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?mentionspending2026-05-11
0.593polymarketTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?100%mentionspending2026-05-08
0.588polymarketUS strike on Cuba by December 31?40%mentionspending2026-01-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "If we don't get our Dyson swarm, this is just shooting ourselves in the head",
  "context": "this could perversely put the US in the lead as it seems to be doing already in in terms of moving our AI compute out to to low Earth orbit and SSO and maybe eventually uh sun centered orbit",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "if the the regulatory regime enables us to to launch our SSO Dyson form, this could perversely put the US in the lead as it seems to be doing already in in terms of moving our AI compute out to to low Earth orbit and SSO and maybe eventually uh sun centered orbit",
  "conv_cues": "fingers crossed",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "medium to long term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellites",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.geekwire.com/2026/spacex-fcc-million-data-center-satellites/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX submits FCC application for orbital data-center constellation at 500-2000 km, sun-synchronous-friendly."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "248_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "248_005",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "235_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-05T22:16:02.777625+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_019",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permitting",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "A US state legislature or PUC enacts a moratorium or hard cap on new data-center permits citing power, water, or grid concerns."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellation",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FCC issues an experimental or interim authorization to Spac
... (truncated)