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246_007predictionMarkets/StocksSpaceX

SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
35.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
4 / 7
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | SpaceX is going to be hitting the road show uh in June.

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
SpaceX is going to be hitting the road show uh in June.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-162026-06-05
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC
    How: SpaceX submits confidential S-1 registration statement to SEC for record-size IPO
    Source: CNBC — SpaceX confidentially files for IPO, setting stage for record offeringconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Confidential filing April 1 2026; required precursor to road show.
  2. 2026-04-25hitPolymarket SpaceX June IPO odds >=60%
    How: Polymarket 'In which month will SpaceX IPO' shows June probability >=60%
    Source: Polymarket — In which month will SpaceX IPOconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — June probability hit 67% on Polymarket as of late April 2026.
  3. 2026-04-15 → 2026-05-31overdueSpaceX public S-1 filing in late April / May 2026
    How: SpaceX files public S-1 with the SEC, kicking off public marketing phase
    Source: Techi / Basenor reporting on SpaceX 2026 IPO timelineconf 85%
  4. 2026-04-25hitARK Invest SpaceX IPO Guide published with $1.75T+ valuation framework
    How: ARK Invest publishes SpaceX IPO valuation guide with $1.75T+ framework / DCF analysis
    Source: Teslarati — ARK's SpaceX IPO Guide makes compelling case on why $1.75T may not be ceilingconf 92%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30pendingSpaceX road show begins in June 2026 (10-14 day institutional pitch)
    How: SpaceX executives commence formal road show with institutional investor presentations across major financial centers
    Source: Techi — SpaceX IPO 2026: $1.75T Valuation, SEC Filing, Timelineconf 90%
    Notes: Pending but high-confidence — confidential S-1 + Polymarket 67% June IPO probability + targeted Musk-birthday June 28 listing date all point to June road show.
  6. 2026-06-15 → 2026-08-31pendingSpaceX IPO prices and lists on Nasdaq
    How: SpaceX prices IPO and lists on Nasdaq with first trading day
    Source: Multiple market reports targeting June 28 (Musk birthday) listingconf 65%
    Notes: Cascade — completes the IPO process; road show is precursor.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-05T22:16:02Z35.1%-14.7pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.351 blend=0.351 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.8300755197856801,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.0064725183935755515,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.49838187605067436,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.41894713615002394,
  "outside_weight": 0.5810528638499761,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3513805626521254,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6129763013835277,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3513805626521254,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3513805626521254,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z49.8%+1.4pp
Network propagation: 48.4% → 49.8%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z48.4%+2.9pp
Network propagation: 45.5% → 48.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-16T22:11:16Z45.5%-7.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.455 blend=0.455 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.1205118225079874,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5300915458965285,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.74375,
      "label": "SpaceX public S-1 filing in late April / May 2026",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-08",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX files public S-1 with the SEC, kicking off public marketing phase"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.45486002763919015,
  "posterior_logit": -0.18105285164745982,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.45486002763919015,
  "blended_posterior": 0.45486002763919015,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z53.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 54.3% → 53.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z54.3%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 56.7% → 54.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z56.7%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 58.6% → 56.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z58.6%-6.4pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 58.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.650+0.251
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.650+0.227
prereq235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (APeter Diamandis
31.2%0.6500.050-0.077

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO /Alex Wissner-Gross
11.9%0.6500.050+0.185
prereq231_035
SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for StarlPeter Diamandis
47.6%0.6500.050-0.171
prereq248_037
State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / Alex Wissner-Gross
10.2%0.5000.050+0.138
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.129
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050-0.118

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_016SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).Space
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (7)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq248_019US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.Space
prereq237_026The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.AI
prereq248_037State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.721manifoldWill SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?3%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.717manifoldHow many successful SpaceX launches in June 2026 UTCmentionspending2026-05-18
0.690manifoldWill SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?99%mentionspending2026-05-06
0.675manifoldWhen will SpaceX first fly humans around the Moon?mentionspending2026-05-26
0.625manifoldWill SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?17%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.617manifoldWhen will Starship flight 14 happen?mentionspending2026-05-04
0.613manifoldWill the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?3%mentionspending2026-05-28
0.567manifoldWill May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season24%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.562manifoldWill Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?95%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.531polymarketWill Trump visit Pakistan by June 30?7%mentionspending2026-05-26

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": true,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "SpaceX is going to be hitting the road show uh in June. uh Anthropic is is as we'll see later in this episode has been uh running circles around open AI",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "SpaceX is going to be hitting the road show uh in June.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "June 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC",
      "notes": "HIT — Confidential filing April 1 2026; required precursor to road show.",
      "source": "CNBC — SpaceX confidentially files for IPO, setting stage for record offering",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/01/spacex-confidentially-files-for-ipo-setting-stage-for-record-offering.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX submits confidential S-1 registration statement to SEC for record-size IPO"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Polymarket SpaceX June IPO odds >=60%",
      "notes": "HIT — June probability hit 67% on Polymarket as of late April 2026.",
      "source": "Polymarket — In which month will SpaceX IPO",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/in-which-month-will-spacex-ipo",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Polymarket 'In which month will SpaceX IPO' shows June probability >=60%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX public S-1 filing in late April / May 2026",
      "source": "Techi / Basenor reporting on SpaceX 2026 IPO timeline",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-08",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-16T22:11:16.678006+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-05-31",
        "from": "2026-04-15"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX files public S-1 with the SEC, kicking off public marketing phase"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ARK Invest SpaceX IPO Guide published with $1.75T+ valuation framework",
      "source": "Teslarati — ARK's SpaceX IPO Guide makes compelling case on why $1.75T may not be ceiling",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.teslarati.com/ark-invest-spacex-ipo-valuation-guide/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "ARK Invest publishes SpaceX IPO valuation guide with $1.75T+ framework / DCF analysis"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "235_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-05T22:16:02.777625+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX road show begins in June 2026 (10-14 day 
... (truncated)