China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).

China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | China does have a credible uh competitive mission to the moon to land there by 2030.

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

China does have a credible uh competitive mission to the moon to land there by 2030.

Beneficiaries (22)

Adverse (3)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "China does have a credible uh competitive mission to the moon to land there by 2030.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "China does have a credible uh competitive mission to the moon to land there by 2030.",
  "conv_cues": "credible",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2030,
  "timeframe": "By 2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "237_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "237_026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Long March 10 first uncrewed orbital flight test",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_March_10",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3307624/chinas-moon-shot-2030-crewed-lunar-mission-tests-pace-space-agency-says",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CMSA / CASC press release confirming first orbital test flight of LM-10 (single-core variant); NASASpaceflight or SCMP coverage with launch date and outcome"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "232_051",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Lanyue lander integrated full-system landing/takeoff test",
      "source": "https://english.news.cn/20251030/591a588b136b47c2b5dfd235f9250334/c.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://english.news.cn/20251030/591a588b136b47c2b5dfd235f9250334/c.html",
      "expected_date": "2027-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CASC announcement of completed integrated landing-and-ascent test for Lanyue lander (beyond the 2025 component-level verification)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "231_035",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mengzhou crewed spacecraft uncrewed flight test in lunar transfer orbit",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2028-09-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Successful Mengzhou launch on Long March 10, beyond LEO trajectory toward Moon, recovery confirmed by CMSA"
    },
    {
... (truncated)