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232_046predictionSpaceSpaceX

SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
32.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30
Edges in / out
11 / 5
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to the moon and Mars, too. ... Let's get uh Starship V3 flying repeatedly and then sure.

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to the moon and Mars, too. ... Let's get uh Starship V3 flying repeatedly and then sure.

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 32.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 11 pending
  1. 2026-05-15overdueStarship Flight 12 (V3 maiden flight) targeted for May 2026 with Raptor V3 debut
    How: SpaceX launches first Starship V3 booster+ship from Starbase Pad 2
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst successful Starship V3 orbit + booster recovery
    How: SpaceX achieves orbital insertion + booster catch in same V3 mission
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingStarship V3 reaches 100+ ton LEO payload demonstrated capacity
    How: SpaceX delivers >=100 metric tons to LEO in single Starship V3 mission with reusability demonstrated
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingStarship V3 enters repeatedly-flying cadence (>=10 flights in 12 months)
    How: SpaceX completes >=10 Starship V3 flights in any rolling 12-month window
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  5. 2028-08-01 → 2029-02-28pendingFirst Mars uncrewed Starship transit attempt (2028 transfer window)
    How: SpaceX launches Starship on Mars transfer trajectory with intent to land
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
  6. 2028-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst non-NASA private crew booking on Starship lunar/cis-lunar mission
    How: SpaceX or partner announces first commercial private-crew lunar-class mission with confirmed payment
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 32%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-30T22:15:00Z32.5%-4.1pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.325 blend=0.325 LLR=-0.181 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Elon Musk",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.5500104585739871,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3658619825235011,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.446875,
      "label": "Starship Flight 12 (V3 maiden flight) targeted for May 2026 with Raptor V3 debut",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-fires-up-next-gen-version-3-starship-ahead-of-landmark-may-test-flight-photos",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.18119222018583597,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-15",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX launches first Starship V3 booster+ship from Starbase Pad 2"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.32493086334742854,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7312026787598231,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01417,
  "inside_posterior": 0.32493086334742854,
  "blended_posterior": 0.32493086334742854,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.18119222018583597,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z36.6%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 37.8% → 36.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z37.8%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 40.4% → 37.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.4%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 43.5% → 40.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z43.5%-6.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 43.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.500+0.139
prereqSEM_044
Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpacPeter Diamandis
32.2%0.5000.050-0.127
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.500+0.121
prereq248_001
Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX StarAlex Wissner-Gross
42.0%0.5000.050-0.088
prereqSEM_024
Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductJoseph Moore
81.8%0.5000.050+0.077

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.200
prereq246_010
SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company witPeter Diamandis
42.7%0.6000.050-0.189
prereq246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missioAlex Wissner-Gross
31.7%0.5000.050-0.113
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.109
prereq232_049
Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disaAlex Wissner-Gross
19.0%0.3000.050-0.055

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_029Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training.Semis/Products
prereq246_001SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_024Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).Semis/Markets
prereqSEM_031AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segments.Semis/Hardware
prereqSEM_028Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.Capital Markets
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq248_001Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors.Space
prereqSEM_044Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority.Space
correlateS_MARS_2028Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)mars_uncrewed_landing
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_010SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.Markets/Stocks
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2029-06-30[Space 2029-06] [232_046] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Starcloud Blacpending

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.658manifoldWill Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?52%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.617manifoldWill SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?17%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.591manifoldWill New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?94%mentionspending2026-05-29

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "caveats": "Conditional on Starship V3 flying repeatedly",
  "context": "Elon tweets, SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to the moon and Mars, too. Uh I tweeted at him or responded said, 'Can I put down a deposit yet?' at Elon Musk. Uh for forgot, forget about suborbital and orbital flights. I want my lunar vacation. He writes me back. He says, 'Let's get uh Starship V3 flying repeatedly and then sure.'",
  "to_year": 2032,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to the moon and Mars, too. ... Let's get uh Starship V3 flying repeatedly and then sure.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "after Starship V3 flying repeatedly",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starship Flight 12 (V3 maiden flight) targeted for May 2026 with Raptor V3 debut",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-fires-up-next-gen-version-3-starship-ahead-of-landmark-may-test-flight-photos",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-15",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX launches first Starship V3 booster+ship from Starbase Pad 2"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "246_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segme",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_031",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_024",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First successful Starship V3 orbit + booster recovery",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/8002/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
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      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX achieves orbital inser
... (truncated)