SEM_024predictionSemis/Marketshardware

Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).

Predictor: Joseph Moore

Prior probability

88.0%

Current probability

81.8%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

in_progress

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

3 / 11

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint). | HBM4 allocation + DRAM contract pricing

Key catalyst: HBM4 allocation + DRAM contract pricing

Watch events: SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron HBM allocation disclosures; DRAM contract pricing

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron all reporting HBM3E sold out through 2026; HBM4 allocations in motion. Memory sector outperformed logic in Q4-2025 to Q1-2026.

Predictor: Joseph Moore

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.583

Brier

0.0001

excellent

Hits / Misses

1 / 0

of 1 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Joseph Moore is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: memory_supercycle_2y

Linked

All classes →

Named memory-market supercycle (DRAM/HBM) persists/intensifies into stated year (n>=2y forward)

Base rate

—

4/8 historical

Inside weight

—

Outside weight

—

no pull

inside 81.8% → blend 81.8% (Δ 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 81.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 3 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending

2025-12-24hitHBM3E contract pricing rises ~20% for 2026 supply
How: Samsung and SK Hynix raise HBM3E supply contract prices ~20% for 2026 NVIDIA H200 / ASIC demand cycle
Source: https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/12/24/news-samsung-sk-hynix-reportedly-plan-20-hbm3e-price-hike-for-2026-as-nvidia-h200-asic-demand-rises/conf 99%
2026-01-31hitSK Hynix CFO confirms 2026 HBM supply 'sold out'
How: SK Hynix CFO publicly confirms 2026 HBM supply 100% allocated/sold out on Q4 2025 earnings call or industry forum
Source: https://introl.com/blog/samsung-sk-hynix-stargate-hbm4-memory-crisis-january-2026conf 95%
2026-02-26overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-02-28hitHBM4 mass production launches February 2026 at SK Hynix
How: SK Hynix begins HBM4 commercial mass production at M15X fab with initial output ~10K wafers/month
Source: https://introl.com/blog/south-korea-hbm4-stargate-memory-supercycle-2026conf 95%
2026-03-31overdueServer DRAM contract prices rise 55-60% in Q1 2026
How: TrendForce reports Q1 2026 server DRAM contract prices up 55-60% sequentially per industry data
Source: https://siliconanalysts.com/tools/hbm-analysisconf 90%
2026-04-23overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-02-01 → 2026-09-30pendingHBM4 reaches $500/stack pricing benchmark
How: Industry pricing data confirms HBM4 average selling price at or near $500/stack (vs HBM3E ~$300, HBM3 ~$200)
Source: https://siliconanalysts.com/tools/hbm-analysisconf 78%
2026-06-18pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-08-14pendingMemory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).
2026-12-31pendingMemory stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) outperform PHLX SOX in 2026
How: Equal-weighted basket of MU + 000660.KS + 005930.KS total return for 2026 exceeds PHLX SOX index total return
Source: https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/memory-price-surge-samsung-sk-hynix-micron/conf 65%
2027-06-16pendingAmazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.
2028-06-23pendingSpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.
2029-04-10pendingHumans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship
2029-06-18pendingSpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.
2030-08-12pendingStarship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)
2031-05-22pendingSpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 82%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z81.8%-5.4pp

Network propagation: 87.2% → 81.8%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z87.2%+14.5pp

intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.872 blend=0.872 LLR=0.939 κ=0.58 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6127227050582519,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Joseph Moore",
  "total_llr": 1.6094379124341,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.977173059159139,
  "bayes_factor": "2.6:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.7265469295024153,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 1.6094379124341,
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "SK Hynix posting op margins above NVIDIA itself is unprecedented and explicitly validates 'memory stocks THE primary ben",
      "adjusted_llr": 0.9387851343228107
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 1,
  "outside_weight": 0,
  "posterior_prob": 0.8716870414367551,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "unchanged",
      "evidence_strength": "strong",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.09
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 1.91595819348195,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0001,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [
    "1760"
  ],
  "inside_posterior": 0.8716870414367551,
  "blended_posterior": 0.8716870414367551,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0.9387851343228107,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z72.7%+1.1pp

Network propagation: 71.6% → 72.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z71.6%+2.2pp

Network propagation: 69.3% → 71.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z69.3%+4.7pp

Network propagation: 64.6% → 69.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z64.6%-13.8pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.646 blend=0.646 LLR=-0.686 κ=0.58 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Joseph Moore",
  "total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.289190439326426,
  "bayes_factor": "2.0:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.7840101311138036,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 3,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2365077975594923,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-26",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.52497,
      "label": "Server DRAM contract prices rise 55-60% in Q1 2026",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://siliconanalysts.com/tools/hbm-analysis",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.21285701780354307,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "measurement_criterion": "TrendForce reports Q1 2026 server DRAM contract prices up 55-60% sequentially per industry data"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2365077975594923,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.6464150052729245,
  "posterior_logit": 0.6033178264038983,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0001,
  "inside_posterior": 0.6464150052729245,
  "blended_posterior": 0.6464150052729245,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6858726129225277,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z78.4%-3.8pp

Network propagation: 82.2% → 78.4%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z82.2%-5.8pp

Network propagation: 88.0% → 82.2%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.880	-0.228
killer	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	12.0%	0.050	0.880	-0.038
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.880	-0.004

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin	40.8%	0.720	0.050	+0.166
prereq	242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis	36.1%	0.650	0.050	+0.158
prereq	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin	36.7%	0.600	0.050	+0.113
prereq	232_046 SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to m — Elon Musk	32.5%	0.500	0.050	+0.077
prereq	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company wit — Peter Diamandis	42.7%	0.600	0.050	+0.053

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALAB AMBA ARM ASML CEVA CRWV IREN MU NBIS NVDA SITM TSM AMD NXPI ANET MRVL CSCO DELL AVGO SIEGY LNVGY AMAT QCOM ATEYY

Adverse (4)

AMAT INTC LRCX AMD

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (11)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	247_023	AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently	AI	—
prereq	231_035	SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.	Space	—
prereq	242_031	Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	230_006	The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.	AI	—
prereq	247_055	Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common	AI	—
prereq	246_010	SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	248_033	Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.	AI	—
prereq	232_051	Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.	Space	—
prereq	242_005	Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)	Space	—
prereq	232_046	SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.	Space	—
prereq	242_038	Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship	Space	—

Validations (1)

Resolution events

Observed at	Status	By	Notes
2026-04-29	partial	thesis_timeline_v1.0_import	SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron all reporting HBM3E sold out through 2026; HBM4 allocations in motion. Memory sector outperformed logic in Q4-2025 to Q1-2026.

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.704	gdelt	244576	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "Moore identifies memory as primary beneficiary — logic processors outpace memory retrieval speed, creating acute HBM/DDR5 bandwidth bottleneck.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "absolute primary beneficiary",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "through 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "HBM3E contract pricing rises ~20% for 2026 supply",
      "source": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/12/24/news-samsung-sk-hynix-reportedly-plan-20-hbm3e-price-hike-for-2026-as-nvidia-h200-asic-demand-rises/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/12/24/news-samsung-sk-hynix-reportedly-plan-20-hbm3e-price-hike-for-2026-as-nvidia-h200-asic-demand-rises/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-24",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Samsung and SK Hynix raise HBM3E supply contract prices ~20% for 2026 NVIDIA H200 / ASIC demand cycle"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SK Hynix CFO confirms 2026 HBM supply 'sold out'",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/samsung-sk-hynix-stargate-hbm4-memory-crisis-january-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/samsung-sk-hynix-stargate-hbm4-memory-crisis-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix CFO publicly confirms 2026 HBM supply 100% allocated/sold out on Q4 2025 earnings call or industry forum"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-26",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "HBM4 mass production launches February 2026 at SK Hynix",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/south-korea-hbm4-stargate-memory-supercycle-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/south-korea-hbm4-stargate-memory-supercycle-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix begins HBM4 commercial mass production at M15X fab with initial output ~10K wafers/month"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Server DRAM contract prices rise 55-60% in Q1 2026",
      "source": "https://siliconanalysts.com/tools/hbm-analysis",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://siliconanalysts.com/tools/hbm-analysis",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TrendForce reports Q1 2026 server DRAM contract prices up 55-60% sequentially per industry data"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
 
... (truncated)