Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source
Prediction text
Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. | this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself. We'll be having a WTF Moonshot live podcast from the Abundant Stage. | Already validated
Key catalyst: Already validated
Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings
Verbatim quote
this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself. We'll be having a WTF Moonshot live podcast from the Abundant Stage.
Resolution evidence
Abundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.18093000000000004,
"inside_posterior": 0.81907,
"validation_notes": "Abundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.81907,
"resolution_evidence": "Abundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezv — Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.208 |
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.174 |
| prereq | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be b — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.450 | 0.050 | +0.097 |
| prereq | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early — Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.091 |
| prereq | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/S — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.085 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (20)
Adverse (3)
Prerequisites (3)
Dependents (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_037 | China will land on the moon before end of 2030 | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_020 | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_040 | Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_051 | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_049 | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. | Space | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Abundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026. |
Linked documents (7)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.575 | polymarket | Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | 3% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.569 | manifold | What will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.567 | manifold | @MarySmith attends Manifest '26? | 38% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.555 | manifold | What will trump say this month? (Kalshi) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.555 | manifold | What will trump say this month? (Kalshi) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.553 | manifold | Hasan Piker a guest on Jimmy Kimmel Live! In 2026? | 7% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.538 | polymarket | Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | 43% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself. We'll be having a WTF Moonshot live podcast from the Abundant Stage.",
"conv_cues": "we're going to be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026 Abundance Summit",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "237_028",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "246_012",
"expected_date": "2027-06-20",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.",
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"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "246_013",
"expected_date": "2028-09-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "230_016",
"expected_date": "2030-06-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "231_032",
"expected_date": "2030-06-22",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "232_049",
"expected_date": "2040-06-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"ki
... (truncated)