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237_028predictionMedia/Adsorbital-AI

Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
77.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
3 / 9
Tickers exposed
28

Prediction text

Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. | this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself. We'll be having a WTF Moonshot live podcast from the Abundant Stage. | Already validated

Key catalyst: Already validated

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer"
this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself. We'll be having a WTF Moonshot live podcast from the Abundant Stage.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Abundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 77.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 78%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z77.9%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 79.3% → 77.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z79.3%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 81.9% → 79.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z81.9%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 86.1% → 81.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z86.1%-5.9pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 86.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+18.1pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.819
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.18093000000000004,
  "inside_posterior": 0.81907,
  "validation_notes": "Abundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.81907,
  "resolution_evidence": "Abundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.920-0.076
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.920+0.037
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.920-0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050+0.208
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050+0.174
prereq235_040
Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be bAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.4500.050+0.097
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050+0.091
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050+0.085

Ticker exposure

28 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (20)

ASTSIRDMPLBKSYTSEMSKYTMRCYGSATRKLBAMZNBABAESYIFNNYLHXLMTMCHPNOCSTMTDGTXN

Adverse (3)

DISHVSATSES

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (9)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq242_037China will land on the moon before end of 2030Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics
prereq235_040Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.Space
prereq242_051Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few yearsSpace
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importAbundance Summit 2026 live-streamed Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara, WTF Moonshots podcast — all shown in podcast transcripts March 2026.

Linked documents (7)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.575polymarketJimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?3%mentionspending2026-04-27
0.569manifoldWhat will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi)mentionspending2026-05-26
0.567manifold@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?38%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.555manifoldWhat will trump say this month? (Kalshi)mentionspending2026-06-02
0.555manifoldWhat will trump say this month? (Kalshi)mentionspending2026-05-15
0.553manifoldHasan Piker a guest on Jimmy Kimmel Live! In 2026?7%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.538polymarketWill "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?43%mentionspending2026-05-13

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "this time for the first time ever at the Abundance Summit, we're going to be live streaming a number of the of the uh of the talks in the fire sides. be live streaming Eric Schmidt uh in conversation with Dave and myself. We'll be live streaming Dra, the CEO of Uber, in conversation with Selma and myself. We'll be having a WTF Moonshot live podcast from the Abundant Stage.",
  "conv_cues": "we're going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026 Abundance Summit",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "237_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "246_012",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "246_013",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "230_016",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "231_032",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "232_049",
      "expected_date": "2040-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "ki
... (truncated)