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238_003predictionMedia/Adsorbital-AI

Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
25.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
2 / 2
Tickers exposed
28

Prediction text

Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting | We're going to be moving into a into a Airbnb together and doing a continuous podcast very soon enough.

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
We're going to be moving into a into a Airbnb together and doing a continuous podcast very soon enough.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-102026-06-05
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 25.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-05-22overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-06-13pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-07-05pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  4. 2026-04-30 → 2026-09-30pendingMoonshots podcast announces house/studio relocation (Airbnb or shared compound)
    How: Diamandis / Moonshots official channels (podcast intro, X post, newsletter) announce team move to shared physical location for continuous recording format; verified via diamandis.com or X
    Source: https://www.diamandis.com/podcastconf 40%
  5. 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingMoonshots podcast publishes longer-format / continuous content episodes (4+ hour OR daily cadence)
    How: Moonshots podcast feed shows shift from weekly 1-1.5hr episodes to either daily releases OR multi-hour continuous-format episodes; verified via Apple Podcasts / Spotify episode listing
    Source: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moonshots-with-peter-diamandis/id1648228034conf 35%
  6. 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingCo-hosts Salim Ismail and Dave Blundin appear in shared physical setting with Diamandis
    How: Video episodes show Peter Diamandis, Salim Ismail, and Dave Blundin recording together in same physical location for sustained period (vs Zoom/remote); verified via YouTube channel
    Source: https://feeds.megaphone.fm/DVVTS2890392624conf 50%
  7. 2026-08-15pendingQ3 2026 window check-in: continuous-podcast format established
    How: By mid-Q3 2026, evaluate whether continuous-podcast Airbnb format has been established and is operating; check via diamandis.com / podcast feed
    Source: https://www.diamandis.com/podcastconf 40%
  8. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Other Diamandis ventures (Abundance Summit, A360) shift to shared-compound format
    How: Abundance360 or Abundance Summit programming announces shift toward continuous live-from-compound format; verified via abundance360.com / press release
    Source: https://www.diamandis.com/podcastconf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 25%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-05T22:16:02Z25.0%-13.0pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.250 blend=0.250 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.7586417651881354,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.4897076269918773,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3799624456842268,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.4689507643683052,
  "outside_weight": 0.5310492356316948,
  "posterior_prob": 0.25045043489719654,
  "posterior_logit": -1.0962114099818294,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.25045043489719654,
  "blended_posterior": 0.25045043489719654,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-30T22:15:00Z38.0%-8.6pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.380 blend=0.380 LLR=-0.355 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.7978621432145666,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.13492565739723356,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4663196658398174,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3547819695946438,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-22",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.4414964997498033,
  "outside_weight": 0.5585035002501967,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3799624456842268,
  "posterior_logit": -0.48970762699187736,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3799624456842268,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3799624456842268,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.3547819695946438,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.6%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.8% → 46.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.8%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 49.5% → 47.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.5%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 52.1% → 49.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z52.1%-7.9pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 52.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.600+0.284
prereq235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (APeter Diamandis
31.2%0.6000.050+0.005

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_040
Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be bAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.4500.050-0.079
prereq232_049
Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disaAlex Wissner-Gross
19.0%0.3000.050-0.057

Ticker exposure

28 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (20)

ASTSIRDMPLBKSYTSEMSKYTMRCYGSATRKLBAMZNBABAESYIFNNYLHXLMTMCHPNOCSTMTDGTXN

Adverse (3)

DISHVSATSES

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_016SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).Space
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (2)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_040Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.Space
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.601manifoldHow many people will participate in my Manifest Airbnb room auction?mentionspending2026-05-04
0.592manifoldWill I hold a session at Less.Online 202672%mentionspending2026-05-30
0.560manifoldNash Pit, Manifest 2026: What choice will Contestant A make?mentionspending2026-05-24

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "You know, we talk about the rate at which we're actually generating our moonshot podcast is accelerating. We're going to be moving into a into a Airbnb together and doing a continuous podcast very soon enough.",
  "verbatim": "We're going to be moving into a into a Airbnb together and doing a continuous podcast very soon enough.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be; very soon enough",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Very soon",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-22",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-28",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-05T22:16:02.777625+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Moonshots podcast announces house/studio relocation (Airbnb or shared compound)",
      "source": "https://www.diamandis.com/podcast",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-04-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Diamandis / Moonshots official channels (podcast intro, X post, newsletter) announce team move to shared physical location for continuous recording format; verified via diamandis.com or X"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Moonshots podcast publishes longer-format / continuous content episodes (4+ hour OR daily cadence)",
      "source": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moonshots-with-peter-diamandis/id1648228034",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Moonshots podcast feed shows shift from weekly 1-1.5hr episodes to either daily releases OR multi-hour continuous-format episodes; verified via Apple Podcasts / Spotify episode listing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Co-hosts Salim Ismail and Dave Blundin appear in shared physical setting with Diamandis",
      "source": "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/DVVTS2890392624",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Video episodes show Peter Diamandis, Salim Ismail, and Dave Blundin recording together in same 
... (truncated)