← Cockpit
246_004predictionMarkets/StocksSpaceX

SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
50.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31
Edges in / out
5 / 5
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion. | Post-IPO trading Jun-Dec 2026

Key catalyst: Post-IPO trading Jun-Dec 2026

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Secondary-market pricing consistent with $2T+ opening; $3T runup would require ~50% first-year appreciation. Absent precedent: Saudi Aramco 2019 IPO hit +10% first day. Sustained $3T would require Starlink+orbital-AI narrative to hold.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.620

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 50.1% → blend 50.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-02-05overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-12overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC
    How: SpaceX submits confidential draft registration statement to SEC, beginning IPO process
    Source: https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/ — SpaceX submitted confidential draft April 1 2026conf 99%
  4. 2026-04-16overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
  5. 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15pendingSpaceX roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026
    How: SpaceX management begins formal IPO roadshow with major retail investor event June 11, 2026
    Source: https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/conf 85%
  6. 2026-06-15 → 2026-07-31pendingSpaceX IPO prices in $1.75T-$2T range
    How: SpaceX IPO prices in the $1.75T-$2T market cap range per banker meeting consensus, $75B raise target
    Source: https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/conf 70%
    Notes: Hits the $2T floor of prediction; $3T trajectory is post-IPO ramp question.
  7. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingStarlink subscriber count crosses 12M
    How: Starlink reports ≥12M active subscribers (vs 10M in early 2026)
    Source: SpaceX/Starlink press, Reutersconf 75%
  8. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSpaceX market cap crosses $3T post-IPO
    How: SpaceX market cap reaches $3T post-IPO via sustained appreciation
    Source: Nasdaq pricing, Bloombergconf 40%
    Notes: Diamandis's $3T claim requires 50-70% appreciation from $1.75-2T IPO price. Bullish scenario depends on Starlink growth + Starship cadence.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z50.1%+1.4pp
Network propagation: 48.8% → 50.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z48.8%+2.8pp
Network propagation: 46.0% → 48.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.0%+5.4pp
Network propagation: 40.6% → 46.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z40.6%-17.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.392 blend=0.406 LLR=-1.056 κ=0.87 w_in=0.87 ipo_trillion_plus
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.18718816479722222,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.6190392084062236,
  "bayes_factor": "2.9:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 86% inside / 13% outside (TRF=0.187, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.65,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 3,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-05",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-12",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-16",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.8689682846419444,
  "outside_weight": 0.13103171535805558,
  "posterior_prob": 0.40613144577017624,
  "posterior_logit": -0.4372784912371662,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.39238964102965124,
  "blended_posterior": 0.40613144577017624,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -1.0563176996433898,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z58.1%+0.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.581 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z58.1%-6.9pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.581 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.650+0.101
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.650+0.077

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_035
SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for StarlPeter Diamandis
47.6%0.6500.050-0.120
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050-0.067
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.055
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050+0.050
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.034

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2028First $1T+ IPO in 2028ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.806manifoldSpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day?61%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.768manifoldWill Spacex close above a $2.5 Trillion Market Cap on it's first day of trading (IPO)?15%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.759polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?65%mentionspending2025-12-11
0.756polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?42%mentionspending2026-02-03
0.755polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?6%mentionspending2026-02-03
0.749polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?32%mentionspending2026-02-03
0.748polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?18%mentionspending2026-05-20
0.747polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?10%mentionspending2026-05-20
0.745manifoldWill SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?44%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.741manifoldWill SpaceX IPO before Bitcoin hits $100K again?79%mentionspending2026-04-23

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": true,
  "qty": "$3T valuation",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "open AI and anthropic will be heading towards a trillion and SpaceX I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion.",
  "conv_cues": "I would be surprised if",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Post-IPO 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-05",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-12",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC",
      "source": "https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/ — SpaceX submitted confidential draft April 1 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX submits confidential draft registration statement to SEC, beginning IPO process"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-16",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "246_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026",
      "source": "https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-15",
        "from": "2026-06-08"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX management begins formal IPO roadshow with major retail investor event June 11, 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO prices in $1.75T-$2T range",
      "notes": "Hits the $2T floor of prediction; $3T trajectory is post-IPO ramp question.",
      "source": "https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-08",
     
... (truncated)