SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion. | Post-IPO trading Jun-Dec 2026
Key catalyst: Post-IPO trading Jun-Dec 2026
Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence
Verbatim quote
I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion.
Resolution evidence
Secondary-market pricing consistent with $2T+ opening; $3T runup would require ~50% first-year appreciation. Absent precedent: Saudi Aramco 2019 IPO hit +10% first day. Sustained $3T would require Starlink+orbital-AI narrative to hold.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-05overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-12overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidentially files draft S-1 with SECHow: SpaceX submits confidential draft registration statement to SEC, beginning IPO processSource: https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/ — SpaceX submitted confidential draft April 1 2026conf 99%
- 2026-04-16overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15pendingSpaceX roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026How: SpaceX management begins formal IPO roadshow with major retail investor event June 11, 2026Source: https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/conf 85%
- 2026-06-15 → 2026-07-31pendingSpaceX IPO prices in $1.75T-$2T rangeHow: SpaceX IPO prices in the $1.75T-$2T market cap range per banker meeting consensus, $75B raise targetSource: https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/conf 70%Notes: Hits the $2T floor of prediction; $3T trajectory is post-IPO ramp question.
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingStarlink subscriber count crosses 12MHow: Starlink reports ≥12M active subscribers (vs 10M in early 2026)Source: SpaceX/Starlink press, Reutersconf 75%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSpaceX market cap crosses $3T post-IPOHow: SpaceX market cap reaches $3T post-IPO via sustained appreciationSource: Nasdaq pricing, Bloombergconf 40%Notes: Diamandis's $3T claim requires 50-70% appreciation from $1.75-2T IPO price. Bullish scenario depends on Starlink growth + Starship cadence.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.18718816479722222,
"kappa": 0.8684,
"base_rate": 0.5,
"predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
"total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": 0.6190392084062236,
"bayes_factor": "2.9:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 86% inside / 13% outside (TRF=0.187, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
"inside_prior": 0.65,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 3,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
"expected_date": "2026-02-05",
"measurement_criterion": null
},
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"kappa": 0.8684,
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
"expected_date": "2026-03-12",
"measurement_criterion": null
},
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"kappa": 0.8684,
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
"expected_date": "2026-04-16",
"measurement_criterion": null
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.8689682846419444,
"outside_weight": 0.13103171535805558,
"posterior_prob": 0.40613144577017624,
"posterior_logit": -0.4372784912371662,
"predictor_brier": 0.02669,
"inside_posterior": 0.39238964102965124,
"blended_posterior": 0.40613144577017624,
"reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
"total_adjusted_llr": -1.0563176996433898,
"predictor_n_resolved": 14
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starl — Peter Diamandis | 47.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.120 |
| prereq | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early — Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezv — Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.050 |
| prereq | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/S — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (17)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 | First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 | First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 | First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_035 | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.806 | manifold | SpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day? | 61% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.768 | manifold | Will Spacex close above a $2.5 Trillion Market Cap on it's first day of trading (IPO)? | 15% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.759 | polymarket | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | 65% | mentions | pending | 2025-12-11 |
| 0.756 | polymarket | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | 42% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-03 |
| 0.755 | polymarket | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-03 |
| 0.749 | polymarket | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | 32% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-03 |
| 0.748 | polymarket | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | 18% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-20 |
| 0.747 | polymarket | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | 10% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-20 |
| 0.745 | manifold | Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO? | 44% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.741 | manifold | Will SpaceX IPO before Bitcoin hits $100K again? | 79% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
Raw metadata
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"qty": "$3T valuation",
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"mode": "PREDICTION",
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"context": "open AI and anthropic will be heading towards a trillion and SpaceX I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion.",
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"verbatim": "I would be surprised if SpaceX doesn't come out at two trillion and run up very quickly to three trillion.",
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... (truncated)